Newsletter By 2025-02-14
Over the past two decades of Democratic rule in the U.S., American society has been heavily shaped by cultural movements, with mainstream public opinion being strongly influenced by them, as seen in issues like climate change, immigration, and the Middle East conflict. Today, there is a noticeable sense of fatigue toward such movements, and society has begun the process of restoration. During this transformative period, the struggle between the anti-establishment and establishment factions has become the core of domestic political conflict in the U.S., rather than ideological battles. Hence, Trump will need to focus on the formation and construction of Trumpism to ensure its legacy for the next generation, such as through figures like JD Vance. Considering the timeline, the formation of a new social structure by the anti-establishment faction will likely take at least another decade. Otherwise, the U.S. may return to its original path, according to
ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan.
>>The complexity of the surrounding situation China faces is far greater than that of the U.S. At the same time, neighboring countries concentrate a large portion of China's major interests, yet its relations with these countries are facing increasingly severe challenges. As the U.S. tends to further retract, China should, at least in the next 3 to 5 years, devote more attention to its diplomacy with neighboring countries, dedicating time and effort to address and resolve the series of issues in the surrounding situation, in the opinion of
Zhou Chao, Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND.
>>2025 will be a key year for the Ukraine conflict. Currently, the main driving factors for the prospects of peace in Ukraine are as follows: Russia does not want to give up its status as a major power; its economy is in crisis; and it understands it is unable to conquer Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine has limited resources and knows it cannot rely on anyone; the United States, especially under Trump, wants to disengage from Europe as soon as possible; at the same time the right-wing movements are rising across Europe. Therefore, if the war ends, Ukraine's economy could thrive. In contrast, Russia may not fare as well. In this scenario, Asia is likely to become an unprecedented hotspot, while Europe will remain a self-rebuilding, chaotic region, wrote
Xia Ri, Industry Researcher at ANBOUND.
>>Border ports serve as crucial gateways, connecting a country to the outside world and facilitating foreign exchanges and economic cooperation. Over the years, as global trade has grown and evolved, China's border ports have also transformed. They have shifted from a traditional “channel economy” to a more dynamic, value-added, and sustainable “industrial economy”. While significant improvements have been made in the development of China’s port economy during this transition, there are still issues that require caution. At the same time, the volatile international situation has raised higher demands for the development of border ports, noted
He Yan, researcher at ANBOUND.
>>"Close produce" is a new theory and concept for multinational corporations, with a wide-reaching impact. Today's multinational companies no longer only pursue "profits"; "resilience" is equally important. Specifically, in the context of de-globalization, the organizational methods and strategic directions of multinational corporations' global layouts focus on systematically addressing three core areas: technology, capital, and consumption, so as to reduce overall production and operational costs. With the deepening of geopolitical tensions and advancements in technology, structural adjustments in multinational companies are inevitable, and these changes will be reflected in the capital markets, pointed out
Zhao Zhijiang, Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND.
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