For a long time, relations with the United States have always been a top priority in China's diplomatic work. Relevant experts in the field have repeatedly pointed out that maintaining stable development of U.S.-China relations is one of the most important elements in China's diplomatic strategy. Previously, China actively proposed building a new type of major-power relationship, reflecting its expectations for the development of the relations. According to the essence of this new type of major-power relationship, i.e., "no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation", China focuses on three main aspects in developing relations with the U.S.: First, strengthening strategic mutual trust, effectively managing differences, and ensuring no conflict and no confrontation; Second, enhancing exchanges at all levels to promote mutual respect between the two countries; Third, advancing pragmatic cooperation in various fields to continue achieving mutual benefits. China has consistently emphasized that the focus of its policy toward the U.S. should be on strengthening strategic mutual trust and effectively managing differences.
There is no doubt that the easing of U.S.-China relations and the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries have been important external factors for the smooth advancement of China's reform and opening-up efforts. With the support and recognition of the U.S. within certain limits, the global economic-technical-financial network controlled by the U.S. and the West eventually accepted China's integration. Additionally, significant capital investment and technology transfer from the U.S. and the West have been crucial driving forces behind China's rise in economy and technology.
It is also indisputable that in recent years, the deepening of the negative aspects of U.S.-China relations has been a major reason for the deterioration of China's relations with the U.S. and the West. A series of actions taken by the U.S. has significantly challenged China's interests in many third-world countries, with Panama recently officially announcing its full withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It seems that the only way to effectively resolve the series of challenges China is facing at present is to continue to make every effort to improve diplomatic relations with the U.S. However, a senior researcher at ANBOUND pointed out that, in order to effectively safeguard China's overseas interests and global position, neighboring countries should become the key focus of China's diplomatic efforts in the future, at least within the next 3 to 5 years.
First, making every effort to deepen and optimize diplomatic relations with neighboring countries is an objective requirement in the era of de-globalization. Up until now, globalization driven by capital, which has overly focused on the economic aspect, has shown a series of problems and signs of fatigue. Economically, the comprehensive expansion of globalization in the past has not fulfilled its earlier promise of universal prosperity. The gap between rich and poor, both between nations and within nations, continues to widen, triggering global dissatisfaction. On the social and cultural level, the full promotion of globalization has not effectively bridged the gaps in culture and ideology. The degree of opposition between different cultures and ideologies has even intensified, while the wave of migration caused by past globalization has sparked strong discontent from the dominant national groups, even in developed countries, leading to the rise of right-wing populist forces. Moreover, the lengthening of global industrial and value chains has made the international economic system highly vulnerable when faced with major pandemics, natural disasters, or regional conflicts. ANBOUND has already emphasized that regionalization will be the dominant trend in the future, with major powers gradually shifting their development focus to their geographically adjacent regions. After Donald Trump took office, he repeatedly requested Denmark to cede Greenland and asked Canada to join the U.S., which were not just mere jokes.
Second, the latest series of developments in China's neighboring countries indicate that its interests in these nations are increasingly facing urgent and direct threats. As a key area of interest for China's BRI, namely the security situation in Pakistan has become more turbulent. The actions of separatist and terrorist forces are growing in strength and their destructive power is escalating, along with a deepening of anti-China sentiment. The Pakistani authorities, constrained by their own capabilities and internal political struggles, face challenges to respond, and the performance of the Gwadar Port project has also been unsatisfactory. In Myanmar, the conflict between local armed groups and the military government is intensifying, and China's interests in this Southeast Asian country are facing increasingly severe threats. In Cambodia, the future of the major canal project, previously agreed upon with China's heavy investment, remains uncertain. U.S. and Japanese capitals are likely to replace Chinese investment, and Cambodia-China relations face more unpredictability. In the South China Sea, regarding disputes over islands and reefs, the Philippines has become increasingly adamant in its stance against China, and Vietnam has not fully reversed its confrontational position toward China. The South Sea issue could further escalate at any time.
In northern China, factors such as terrorism and social unrest in Central Asia continue to pose significant threats to China's interests. Recently, Russia has implemented strict screening of goods along the China-Europe Railway, citing the need to "prevent sensitive materials from transiting". The focus is on inspecting dual-use military and civilian items and sensitive goods, while also seizing various civilian essential goods, hindering normal trade between China and Europe. Additionally, there are reports that Russia plans to build a bridge over the Tumen River, directly connecting to North Korea, but the height of the bridge will effectively block the potential for Chinese vessels to pass through the Tumen River to the sea. Although further verification is needed, considering Russia's long-standing obstruction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project and attempts to form a natural gas export alliance with Central Asian countries to influence gas exports to China, this development should not be underestimated. All in all, due to the complex geopolitical and ideological factors, the surrounding regions, which are critical to China's development and home to many significant projects, are increasingly facing risks and challenges that require more attention from China.
Third, the relative withdrawal of the U.S. attention in the region provides China with a window of opportunity to strengthen its influence over regional situations. Both Trump's victory speech and his actions after taking office indicate that domestic issues will be the primary focus of the U.S. government. Recently, Trump's proposal to offer civil servants a "buyout" of their years of service has faced joint resistance from legislative bodies across multiple regions, and the long-standing establishment of the U.S. government suggests that Trump's efforts to reorganize the government will not be smooth. As a result, the U.S. government's foreign attention and resources are likely to be adjusted or even reduced, with its focus shifting more toward matters in the Americas. When it comes to China's surrounding situations, the U.S. is likely to adopt a more opportunistic approach, using offshore balancing to exert influence, while its willingness and capacity for direct involvement may decrease. For China, this represents an opportunity that should not be overlooked.
Final analysis conclusion:
One important point to recognize is that the complexity of the surrounding situation China faces is far greater than that of the U.S. At the same time, neighboring countries concentrate a large portion of China's major interests, yet its relations with these countries are facing increasingly severe challenges. As the U.S. tends to further retract, China should, at least in the next 3 to 5 years, devote more attention to its diplomacy with neighboring countries, dedicating time and effort to address and resolve the series of issues in the surrounding situation.
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Zhou Chao is a Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
