How does war break out?
This question can be answered through many historical events. Yet, more often than not, people get bogged down in the intricate details of history. It is as if a person who gets stuck in a swamp, recalling every misstep, and this is completely meaningless. In these moments, what is needed more is logic and a framework that can point out the direction and the key logic to successfully escape.
In today's world, people are increasingly noticing the signs of transformation. The United States has clearly withdrawn from global affairs and the interests of other nations, focusing exclusively on its own. Global integration is effectively ending, and the World Trade Organization has become little more than a symbolic institution. Europe's NATO, along with other international organizations, is in a state of disarray, having lost the essential foundation of widespread international cooperation. The U.S. has even started making demands over the Panama Canal, insisting that American warships pass through for free and that the canal remain under American control. Moreover, the U.S. has made territorial demands on Greenland, ignoring Europe's concerns entirely. Russia continues attempting to maintain its status as a global power, even launching the war in Ukraine, but its situation grows increasingly dire as it struggles. Japan, too, holds on to the dream of a "global market", but in this new reality, it has turned to the U.S., overlooking the fact that the global market is becoming more blurred and undefined. Meanwhile, Europe faces the rise of right-wing movements, and the Americas see figures like Argentina's Javier Milei gaining prominence. Countries worldwide are now forced to pursue their own paths to development, and in many cases, it is less about progress and more about ensuring mere survival.
Such a chaotic scenario sees a tangle of complex and overwhelming influences. No one knows what the final outcome will be. People can only struggle to adapt, hoping to reduce the impact on their own countries. In times like these, even questioning "How did the world get here?" or attributing it all to Trump feels irrelevant.
The reality is clear and unmistakable before people's eyes. Some countries are able to respond successfully, while others are not. Whether or not people have the resources to succeed, only a few countries will manage to do so, while most will not. Therefore, the outcome is ultimately one of two possibilities: first, the arrival of decline; second, the advent of war. These are the two devils of the world, lurking in the shadows, but never truly leaving. They are simply waiting for the right moment, and that moment has now arrived. We are now in an era like that of Catherine the Great, an age without order, only resources and power. For those countries with no conditions to submit, and even submission being a privilege requiring vast resources, the only option left is war. The logic is simple: they cannot adjust, adapt, transform, or accept this new era, so they must find their own reasons to take up arms.
The logic behind the outbreak of war has never been complicated. It is just that people are often too unwilling to face it.
