The primary policy goals of the Donald Trump administration are far-reaching and highly consequential. Governments worldwide are inevitably influenced by these policies, prompting them to adjust their own strategies, which has led to the global spread of Trumpism's destabilizing effects. Hence, analyzing the administration's core policy objectives and forecasting its trajectory is crucial.
Based on the current available information, a comprehensive view suggests that the primary policy goals of Trump are likely as follows:
1. Opposition to DEI: DEI stands for “diversity, equity, and inclusion”, which is a cultural movement that was widely promoted during the Biden administration and has since permeated society, becoming a guiding principle for organizational development. In some cases, it has even evolved into a form of privilege for certain groups, such as women, transgender individuals, and Black people. Due to its competitive nature, when DEI groups gain certain privileges, it may negatively impact the American competitive capacity. Many government agencies and businesses have explicitly stated that leadership and recruitment must meet DEI standards, even if some individuals do not meet the necessary qualifications. As a result, Trump and conservatives in the U.S. strongly oppose this cultural movement.
While the Trump administration is attempting to eliminate DEI, restoring order once institutional structures are disrupted will take time. Additionally, although government agencies can issue directives to do away with DEI-related programs, it is much more challenging within the private sector. Only a portion of businesses have removed DEI initiatives, while many state governments, companies, and institutions have not taken any related action and some continue to uphold DEI principles.
2. Opposition to immigration: The large number of so-called illegal immigrants in the U.S. has led to significant crime, which is an objective fact and one of the key reasons Trump won the election. After taking office, Trump fulfilled his promise to begin mass deportations of illegal immigrants, but the scale of this task is enormous and difficult to complete. Under the Biden administration, the doors were essentially opened, allowing millions of illegal immigrants to enter, making the cleanup a process that could take years. Additionally, there are many related issues, including various legislative procedures. Therefore, addressing illegal immigration is a major undertaking with significant political impact, but it will take a long time to see results, and the process is marked by partisan struggles.
3. Anti-corruption: The U.S. government’s wasteful spending is well-known, and this represents the establishment's core base. A famous quote from the Biden administration encapsulates this: when asked if there was money for a certain initiative, Biden replied, "We're the United States of America for God's sake". The establishment is characterized by its tendency to spend freely, but making money is a different matter. Given this, anti-corruption efforts and curbing wasteful spending led to the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) headed by Elon Musk. This approach has clear political effects, as targeting such waste highlights the vulnerabilities of the Democratic Party, making it a key political lever in the election, especially with regard to future elections. Despite the many rumors surrounding Musk, Trump is likely to fully support him, disregarding the rumors, because this represents a powerful political tool to strike at the establishment.
4. Peace efforts: Seeking peace is one of the items on Trump’s international agenda, but it is limited just to that. Trump's political agenda will primarily focus on domestic politics (ANBOUND, 2024), while on external matters, he mainly aims to promote peace and secure advantages within peace agendas to highlight global leadership. Overall, Trump shows interest in various peace initiatives, but when it comes to war and the use of force, he mostly speaks in generalities.
As for tariffs and trade wars, while they are key concerns for the economic sector and media, they are not Trump’s primary focus (ANBOUND, 2024). Trump often threatens tariff wars but tends to back off, and the reason for this is clear. In fact, Trump's obsession with trade wars can be attributed to three main reasons: First, tariffs are a relatively efficient geopolitical tool available to him, as other options are less effective. Second, based on the theory of the "imbalanced buyer and seller markets" (ANBOUND, 2010), he firmly believes the buyer party can dictate terms. Third, it is thought to have a limited impact on inflation, which is a commonly misunderstood point in economic circles, as they fail to account for the counteracting effects of currency depreciation.
However, the trade war has structural impacts and is easily exploited for political gain, something Trump is reluctant to see. Therefore, with regard to the trade war, Trump appears to focus more on using it for political image rather than genuinely preparing for a large-scale tariff battle. In this sense, his approach is "offensive defense". Thus, as long as the trade war is handled appropriately and does not escalate, it will lose its political effect. Therefore, tariffs and trade will not become Trump's main political agenda.
Crucially, over the past two decades of Democratic rule in the U.S., American society has been heavily shaped by cultural movements, with mainstream public opinion being strongly influenced by them, as seen in issues like climate change, immigration, and the Middle East conflict. Today, there is a noticeable sense of fatigue toward such movements, and society has begun the process of restoration. During this transformative period, the struggle between the anti-establishment and establishment factions has become the core of domestic political conflict in the U.S., rather than ideological battles.
However, the anti-establishment faction in the U.S. has quite a lot of work to do. In reality, the establishment now plays the role of a disruptor of societal construction. The anti-establishment faction needs a significant amount of time to rebuild social order and establish a new framework. Therefore, Trump will need to focus on the formation and construction of Trumpism to ensure its legacy for the next generation, such as through figures like JD Vance. Considering the timeline, the formation of a new social structure by the anti-establishment faction will likely take at least another decade. Otherwise, the U.S. may return to its original path.
The conclusion is clear: we are currently in an "era of mitigation”. Trump's key achievements are largely tied to the four objectives mentioned above, and there is simply not enough time in four years to complete them. Additionally, there are constant, unpredictable risks to contend with. All in all, the success of these goals will also depend on the next generation of Republican leaders to carry them forward.
