China is a great nation, but the reality, a tragic one is that, it is experiencing serious population decline.
In the past year, on average, 40 kindergartens have closed each day across China. After these closures, many kindergarten teachers, as well as students studying early childhood education, are now facing career transitions and considering alternatives to deal with this crisis. Currently, many students in early childhood education programs are seeking to switch majors. A student from Shanghai Normal University, majoring in early childhood education, shared that teachers in the field are discussing job cuts, as a large number of private kindergartens in Shanghai have shut down. For instance, in 2022, the proportion of students in early childhood education switching to other majors was the highest. Female students mostly transferred to English or Chinese literature majors, while male students tended to shift to mathematics education.
Indeed, since last year, China has seen a wave of kindergarten closures across the country. In 2023, many kindergartens faced enrollment crises. According to data from the country's Ministry of Education, the number of kindergartens in China dropped to 274,400 in 2023, a decrease of 14,800 from 2022. Correspondingly, the number of children enrolled in preschool education dropped by 5.35 million, a decrease of 11.6%.
Additionally, the number of full-time preschool teachers decreased by 170,000 in one year, from 3.24 million in 2022 to 3.07 million in 2023. It is important to note that these are official statistics; the actual situation may be even more severe.
What accounts for this dramatic decline in preschool enrollment? The root cause lies in China's demographic collapse. The country's population has been in negative growth for two consecutive years. In 2021, there were 10.62 million newborns; in 2022, this dropped to 9.56 million; and in 2023, it further decreased to just 9.02 million. Once crowded with expectant mothers, maternity hospitals now are all quiet. As it stands, such a decline is set to continue.
In December 2023, the Department of Education of Hunan Province issued a directive requiring the organization of kindergarten closures and mergers, making it the first provincial government in China to formally announce such measures. This decision sparked public debate. The Chinese public was slow to recognize the implications of aging and declining birthrates, with many considering 2022 to be the year when China's negative population growth began, marking the point when society could no longer ignore the looming challenges of an aging population and fewer births.
As early as the last century, ANBOUND's founder Kung Chan had debated with real estate magnates about the impending crisis in China's real estate market, driven by the aging population, which he predicted would ultimately lead to a market downturn. At that time, amid the booming real estate market, few believed such gloomy warnings. The reluctance to heed these concerns has contributed to the severe debt, financial, and market crises currently facing China's real estate sector. In hindsight, it is clear that the twin challenges of an aging population and declining birthrates were already inevitable, making the current housing crisis almost irreversible.
Importantly, China's demographic decline is not a steady, linear process but one that is accelerating at an alarming rate. Factors such as the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, a decline in the number of women of childbearing age, weakened birth intentions, and low fertility rates all contribute to an even more pronounced population decrease in 2023 compared to 2022.
This situation now sets in motion a cycle of disaster. With record-low birth rates, compounded by the long-term economic impacts of the pandemic, youth unemployment in China has reached historic highs. Meanwhile, wages for many white-collar workers have stagnated or declined, and the real estate crisis continues to erode household wealth. These factors further dampen the willingness of young people to have children. Additionally, the high cost of raising children has led many Chinese couples to either forgo having children or find it financially impossible to do so.
Perhaps most despairing is the looming crisis of elderly care. The financial and social burden of caring for an aging population is one that society is ill-equipped to bear. Families will be forced to shoulder this responsibility, but with a shrinking younger population, this will become increasingly unsustainable. In a typical family, the burden of care might fall on two married individuals to support four elderly relatives. If one of them must work, the situation could become even more dire, which means one person might be responsible for providing and caring for four elderly individuals. This creates a profound caregiving crisis that threatens to collapse China's social safety net. In the future, it is possible that the workforce may be so depleted that there will be no one left to care for the elderly, plunging China into a double crisis of intergenerational neglect and population decline.
Some may point to the current number of young people and believe that there are still sufficient populations. However, the reality is far more dire. The younger generation will be preoccupied with caring for the aging population, and they may be unable to manage the burden. They cannot simply abandon their elderly parents. Having more children will not solve the problem; in fact, it will likely worsen it. First, the time lag between birth and adulthood means that any potential contribution from new generations will take decades to materialize. Second, having more children will create an even greater demand for the younger population to care for both their elders and their own children, further depleting the workforce.
Thus, while China may remain a great nation, it is possible that the country will no longer have enough population to sustain it. This is the stark reality that lies ahead for China.
Final Analysis Conclusion:
Population aging is accelerating and intensifying in China, and the crisis is rapidly approaching. It is quite possible that in the future, entire sectors in the country will be unable to find workers, causing social services to collapse, and the plight of the elderly will be devastating. China's social fabric will be stretched to its limits, and it may take a prolonged period to restore demographic balance. This is the looming crisis facing China, a country deprived of enough population.
