Saturday, November 16, 2024
Ukraine will See Effective Peace Negotiations in 2025
Kung Chan
Even if the U.S. delivers all the weapons it has already funded through Congress to Ukraine, the country, which suffers from bureaucracy and corruption, will at most use these funds and weapons to fight for another six months. Around the fall of 2025, Ukraine will likely begin negotiations with Russia over a ceasefire line, and the final result will be a gradual cessation of hostilities along the front lines, marking the beginning of a preliminary peace. As for true peace, the kind that satisfies the interests of both sides, it will take a long time to achieve. However, even a ceasefire along the front lines would be a major step forward, by then the sound of artillery in Europe would gradually subside. Therefore, 2025 will be a crucial year.
What then will Ukraine's position be? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy certainly will not be willing to accept this, and the dissatisfaction of the Ukrainian people will be obvious. How can they explain the many lives lost in the war? This will soon become a political issue, and it is likely that Zelenskyy will try to blame Donald Trump, holding him responsible. However, whether this explanation will gain understanding and support from the Ukrainian people is highly questionable. Therefore, a ceasefire would be very detrimental to Zelenskyy's political position. In any case, once a ceasefire is reached, Ukrainians could end up becoming Europe's orphans.
What about Russia's perspective? Russian President Vladimir Putin has to consider what kind of relationship he wants with the U.S. The most likely scenario is that he wants to maintain Russia's status as an equal great power, but this can only be achieved if a ceasefire in Ukraine happens, because without it, even dialogue would be impossible. Furthermore, Putin's resources are nearing their limit. It should be noted that what Putin demands is victory, but if the country is exhausted and the people are disgruntled, then this "victory" will become impossible. Therefore, Putin is under pressure to accept negotiations before such a situation arises. Another point is that Putin's army is absolutely insufficient to control all of Ukraine; even with the full force of the nation, this would be impossible. Therefore, Putin is seeking a balance between territory and military strength. Russia is nearing a breaking point, and I maintain my previous judgment: one million military casualties is the maximum limit Russia can bear.
The real challenge, however, is what happens after a ceasefire on the Ukrainian battlefield. Global oil and gas prices will experience significant shocks, and how to handle Russia's frozen national assets will be a big issue. Additionally, there is the matter of Ukraine's reconstruction and Russia's position in the world. Many questions remain unanswered, and there has not even been much discussion on them yet, because the world still believes that peace in Ukraine in 2025 is unlikely.
ANBOUND
