China’s Third Plenum has established the top-level design, which pertains to strategic directions and principles. As things stand, the final outcome will depend on the detailed reform plans and their execution effectiveness.

For the Chinese authorities, it would be crucial to understand that all the reform solutions, which require further refinement, may need to be based on several irreversible and often overlooked conditions. These conditions represent and reflect the current social realities in China:

1. Aging population: The decreasing population will result in China having 30% of its population composed of elderly individuals, with aging also impacting a large portion of the younger population.

2. Urban Shrinkage: With an urbanization rate of 66%, the trend will likely continue downward, making it difficult for urbanization to increase. In fact, reverse urbanization has already begun.

3. Consumption Downgrading: Declining income and the influx of rural populations into cities due to past urbanization will inevitably lead to a downgrade in consumption.

4. Trend of Chinese Enterprises Going Global: Excess production capacity and the need for survival, development, and export will inevitably drive Chinese enterprises to pursue global expansion.

5. Decrease in Fiscal Revenue: As the real estate industry in China declines, it leads to a drop in various debts and tax revenues. This problem naturally arises from the rapid downturn in the sector.

6. Relocation of Foreign Enterprises: Geopolitical risks and social environmental pressures have led to a structural trend of foreign enterprises continually moving out of China.

7. Decline in the Real Estate Boom: This decline is a result of aging, land finance issues, income changes, debt, and oversupply collectively affecting the real estate market.

8. Decline in Economic Growth Rate: Structural changes within the economy have led to shrinkage, which has far-reaching impacts.

9. Depreciation of the Renminbi: The Chinese currency's value is falling, reducing its purchasing power and leading to fewer imports.

10. Rise in Costs: Social costs are being squeezed and increased, forming an unsustainable burden that is likely to worsen in the future.

Under these conditions, various contradictions proliferate and intertwine, mutually restraining and influencing each other. This results in extreme difficulty in implementing the major policies established by the Third Plenum in terms of system integration, overall coordination, and convergence. The presence of these contradictions presents a highly challenging environment for the development and formulation of reform plans.

Addressing the challenge of increasing consumption amidst declining income requires innovative strategies. Similarly, finding ways to boost revenue despite widespread business closures is essential. Expanding the Chinese market while reducing dependency on external markets is critical, as is implementing educational reforms in the face of decreasing student numbers. Likewise, delaying retirement while managing rising unemployment poses a significant challenge. Increasing non-tax revenue while facing reduced tax revenue is imperative, and the same goes for encouraging home purchases despite the introduction of property taxes. Building a unified large market while expanding local tax powers requires careful planning. At the same time, the issue of enhancing state-owned enterprises while promoting the growth of private enterprises must be strategically managed. Acquiring unsold homes while ensuring financial stability is crucial, and expanding direct financing while tightening securities market regulation would be an important matter as well. Transforming small-scale experimental technologies into productive forces too is vital. These and other contradictions, especially those arising from various irreversible conditions, must be addressed in the detailed formulation of reform plans.

With only five years remaining until the 2029 reform timeline, and with numerous possibilities continuing to emerge in this period, the task of reform is exceptionally daunting. Whether the Chinese economy can bottom out, avoid risk zones, and regain vitality will depend on the effectiveness and success of the reform plans introduced within these five years.

Reform is essentially a reconstruction amidst contradictions. It is a challenging and long-term endeavor, yet it carries high expectations.

Final analysis conclusion:

China’s Third Plenum has established the top-level design, but the ultimate outcome will depend on the detailed reform plans and their implementation effectiveness. All these reform solutions, which need further refinement, may have to be based on several irreversible conditions that are often overlooked. Under these conditions, numerous contradictions emerge and intertwine, mutually restraining and influencing each other, presenting a highly challenging environment for the development and formulation of reform plans. All in all, reform is a reconstruction amidst contradictions, a challenging and long-term endeavor that carries high expectations.