In recent developments, Manila has accused the Chinese coast guard of using water cannons against Philippine vessels, while China alleges that Philippine ships have entered its waters "illegally". The U.S. State Department has come forward with a statement expressing support for the Philippines and reaffirming its commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty between the U.S. and the Philippines. The statement also cites the ruling by the international PermanentCourt of Arbitration in the Hague in July 2016, which determined that China lacks a legal basis for claiming historic rights to the majority of the South Sea. The U.S. further emphasizes that it will invoke Article IV of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty in the event of any armed attack against Filipino public vessels, aircraft, and armed forces, including the Coast Guard.
The current situation indicates that the tension in the South Sea is rapidly escalating, potentially leading to open naval confrontations or minor conflicts between the U.S. and China.
The strategic significance of the Philippines has been a recurring point of emphasis in my previous discussions concerning issues like the Taiwan Strait and Japan-South Korea relations. For China to uphold its position on Taiwan, this would necessitate it to have an expansion of its strategic depth. The Philippines, situated on the western edge of the Pacific, serves as a crucial component of this depth. Any party that effectively manages the Philippines will be able to exert influence over the western edge of the Pacific, which also holds relevance for countries like Japan and South Korea located in a similar geographical context. For the U.S. and its allies, the Philippines' critical position plays a pivotal role in determining the significance of the Pacific region, making its control a matter of strategic importance.
Given the current situation in the South Sea, a potential escalation in Philippine-U.S. relations might prompt China to adopt a closer strategy toward the Philippines. As a consequence, the Philippines could face the risk of losing its coastal defense capabilities, particularly considering the proximity of locations like Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Island) and Second Thomas Shoal (Ren'ai Reef) to its coastline. This could significantly reduce the Philippines' strategic depth and potentially pose challenges to U.S. bases in the Southeast Asian country. For China, this approach appears to be the most plausible way to counterbalance the strategic significance of the Philippines unless it chooses to relinquish its position in the Taiwan Strait and the South Sea. Otherwise, it could be difficult to avoid conflicts centered around the Philippines.
