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Friday, July 14, 2023
Decoupling in Substance but Not in Name: Biden Administration's Policies toward China
Kung Chan

There is a significant research topic regarding the perception that under the leadership of President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party in the United States, the current policies of the West toward China can be characterized as "risk management without decoupling". This means that Western countries, in their official policies, do not advocate for complete separation from China but rather emphasize the need for risk mitigation in certain sensitive sectors to prevent potential risks from materializing. This perspective has become the prevailing understanding when interpreting recent Western policies toward China.

Based on my research, I argue that even during President Biden's term, the positioning and characterization of U.S. policies toward China are more complex than they appear. To provide a more illustrative explanation, it can be said that Western countries officially do not pursue decoupling, but they encourage and emphasize risk management in sectors, effectively resulting in disengagement from China. This understanding reflects a geopolitical strategy of "separating official policies from business operations".

The divergent interpretations of Western countries' policies toward China represent different analyses and lead to different conclusions that significantly impact the future of U.S.-China economic and trade relations. Some argue that China still plays an irreplaceable role in the production of low-end consumer products. However, this viewpoint primarily considers the perspective of Western countries' existing supply chains. It overlooks a few important factors. Firstly, substitutes for low-end consumer goods have emerged rapidly from countries such as India, Indonesia, Turkey, Laos, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mexico, which have replaced Chinese products in traditional sectors. Therefore, substitution is an ongoing process and not an impossibility. Secondly, due to the overseas relationships of these Chinese suppliers with the U.S. and the West, they are often viewed suspiciously within China by propaganda departments and security agencies. It remains a vital question how long they can continue their production and maintain their role as suppliers friendly to the West. Thirdly, the production of these goods in China has not been established for a significant period of time. Western countries and societies do not necessarily depend heavily on these low-end consumer products from China.

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