Index > ANBOUND Geopolitical Review (AGR)
Back
Wednesday, July 12, 2023
Judgment and Predictions: Some Outcomes of the NATO Summit
Kung Chan

NATO leaders have gathered at the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, and in the declaration signed, there are a few key points:

1. Alliance members agree to extend a NATO invitation to Ukraine once conditions are met.

2. The prospect of NATO countries using nuclear weapons is deemed "extremely remote".

3. NATO calls on all nations to refrain from providing any assistance to Russia during special military operations.

4. The deepening of the strategic partnership between China and Russia contradicts the Alliance’s values and interests.

5. The military integration between the Russian Federation and Belarus affects regional stability and NATO defense.

6. NATO intends to maintain open channels of communication with Moscow to manage and mitigate risks.

7. The Alliance does not seek confrontation with Russia but cannot view it as a partner; China's ambitions challenge NATO's interests, security, and values.

8. NATO will continue to enhance cooperation with partners in the Asia-Pacific region to address common security challenges.

9. NATO countries agree to expedite the inclusion of outer space into the collective security system.

10. Strengthening relations with Serbia will be beneficial for NATO.

11. NATO countries will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

NATO, short for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a transatlantic alliance in which the United States has long been seen as the leader. However, based on the outcome of this summit, it is evident that this is no longer the case. The alliance, in its current form, did not challenge Russia or issue a victorious call in a recognized and forceful manner. Instead, it made a very high-profile statement, reflecting the urgent desire of European countries to be heard by the world and Russia. Therefore, the present NATO is gradually transforming into a defensive alliance organization with a certain level of focus on Europe. Although the U.S. may not openly reject this transformation, it is reasonable to believe that it will recognize the reality and reassess its security relationship with Europe under pressure.

The U.S. has faced similar geopolitical choices in its history, particularly after World War I and World War II in Europe. Hence, the major challenge for the future U.S. may be whether it seriously considers the prospect of sacrificing the lives of American youth or other higher costs to save the Europeans if Europe faces another crisis of being subjugated by others. Personally, I believe that even if Europeans consider themselves as the superior representatives of rationality, they cannot ignore the possibility that future American public opinion may demand such action, and it is entirely within the rights of Europeans to determine their own survival.

Interestingly, since President Joe Biden took office, the U.S. State Department has made matters in regard to NATO a top priority. However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken's efforts have clearly been unsuccessful, at least in terms of achieving significant progress that could demonstrate American leadership. NATO is effectively transforming into an internal security and defense organization within Europe, representing the interests and ideologies of European countries and intellectuals, with the increasing exclusion of U.S. influence. Blinken has helplessly witnessed this shift in dynamics, and the situation is likely to worsen for the U.S. in the future without any significant changes.

Europeans have come to believe that their access to the U.S. market and capital, based on their capitalist values and ideals, has played a role in Europe's post-war recovery. However, some Europeans, particularly intellectuals and those in the ideological sphere, may not see these values and ideals as universally applicable, even within Europe. Even in cases where the territory of a European country is openly violated, there are some who may not perceive it as a significant concern. Their focus tends to be more on specific aspects of post-war theories, while Ukraine represents a distinct issue in this context.

The European perception of "Europe" is characterized by a straightforward understanding, although it is often expressed in a sophisticated manner that may create a different impression. Conversely, the U.S. exhibits a tendency to overlook the heightened severity of the current situation, adhering to established narratives. For instance, the NATO summit in Vilnius is commonly described as "highly successful" with a notably comfortable atmosphere, even allowing for moments of humor from Russian officials during the event.

ANBOUND
Copyright © 2012-2024 ANBOUND