The recent mutiny of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group came to a dramatic end within a span of less than two days. Under the mediation of Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, the Wagner Group's military personnel halted their advance toward Moscow and returned to their bases. In response, the Russian security agency swiftly dropped the criminal charges against the rebellious Wagner members.

Media reports indicate that Lukashenko secured assurances from the Russian government regarding the safety of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. Consequently, Prigozhin and his private armed forces will be deployed to Belarus and stationed there.

While the immediate crisis may have been resolved, the impact of this event will have lasting consequences. ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan offers his insights on the significant factors and implications surrounding the Wagner incident:

1. Reconciliation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin is highly unlikely. The Wagner Group, although tacitly approved by Putin, witnessed Prigozhin's rebellion during a critical period of the Ukraine conflict. This not only posed a threat to Russia but also humiliates Putin. Such incidents are intolerable to the latter.

2. President Putin's iron grip will face critical challenges. This armed force openly challenged the Russian state and Putin himself, ultimately leading to Putin's acquiescence. This submissive response in the face of adversity reveals the fragility of the Russian President’s authority when confronted with unexpected events.

3. The precise reasons behind the Wagner incident remain unclear, and various reports from social media sources are deemed unreliable. Our assessment suggests that the most probable cause lies in the contradiction between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Wagner Group. It appears that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's attempt to incorporate the Wagner troops pushed Prigozhin to the brink.

4. The Russian Ministry of Defense, led by Shoigu, serves as a representative of President Putin and is highly unlikely to be compromised or undermined. Therefore, when Prigozhin confronts Shoigu and the Ministry of Defense, it directly challenges Putin himself.

5. Prigozhin is expected to maintain an independent existence. The current situation in Russia bears resemblance to the post-World War I era, as highlighted in Putin's speech on June 24.

6. The United States is unlikely to engage in non-governmental cooperation with Prigozhin but may provide some form of support.

7. Ukraine currently lacks the capacity to mount an effective counterattack based on this situation. According to the latest information, Ukraine's counteroffensive has been thwarted by the Russian military. As ANBOUND previously stated, Ukraine is less capable of offensive warfare.