With Germany approving sending the Leopard I tanks to assist Ukraine, rumors of the war turning into a major one have been spreading recently, imagining that it would be like warfare before World War II. Yet, there is less likelihood for such imaginations to turn into reality.
Now, the Ukrainian army is mainly deploying the National Guard in the Bakhmut and Soledar regions. These are actually mobilized soldiers recruited by Ukraine, not the main force of its army. Meanwhile, the Russian army deployed the Wagner mercenary group in the same regions. In the Bakhmut defense area, both sides invested non-main field troops, attempting to take the opportunity to consume the other's military human resources. Therefore, in the Bakhmut area, the two sides fought fiercely and suffered heavy casualties, but traces of high-level technical weapons were rarely seen. On the contrary, it was the flesh-and-blood assault that appeared the most, where even the trench warfare of World War I had occurred.
Judging from the current progress of the war, Russia needs to further mobilize troops to replenish the front line. At the same time, it will take time to replenish the military equipment, a long time at that. On the Ukrainian side, it is estimated that Western military equipment will equip the main field troops. These troops must draw elite combatants for training, which also takes a lot of time. In fact, the main field forces of both Russia and Ukraine at this stage are in the stage of refurbishment, training, and reequipment. Those who are doing the fierce fighting now are the National Guard and the militia on the Ukrainian side, with the Wagner Group mercenaries and the Luhansk local armed forces on the Russian side.
From the analysis of the time frame, it is now widely rumored that Russia will launch a large-scale attack at the end of February. However, I think this is unlikely. Frequent battles will still happen. Maybe there will be new important battle nodes, where new intense battles in some regions will be heard. That being said, they will not be a large-scale battle, and definitely not something comparable to the Battle of Kursk. This is because both sides are evidently not ready yet and still need time.
The real decisive battle may take place in spring, perhaps in April and May, when the main forces of both sides will be engaged in it. We will see Leopard and M1 tanks appearing on the battlefield in Ukraine, and there may be a large number of new Western equipment as well. At the same time, Russia's last and replenished elite troops will also enter the battlefield again. The outcome of the battle during that period will determine whether Russia can realize that even as a world power, its own war resources are not infinite. If Russian President Vladimir Putin does realize this, the negotiations would have been more constructive.
The spring of 2023 will be a season that determines the future of Europe.
