In the current stage of the war in Ukraine, a new situation has emerged. The daily death toll announced by the Ukrainian General Staff is significantly higher than in previous stages of the war. Back then, there was a large loss of armored and heavy equipment, even at times more than hundreds of units being damaged a day, and the number of deaths in the Russian army was often about 200 per day. Now, such a situation has basically ceased to exist.

At present, according to the data of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army, the number of casualties of the Russian army every day is rather high, often in the hundreds, and it is not unusual to see 400 to 600 Russian troops perishing in a day. This New Year’s Eve alone saw the casualty of over 700 Russian soldiers. On the contrary, the loss of armored vehicles and heavy equipment of the Russian army is small, often only around a single tank and two artilleries per day. This situation shows that the war has now entered a "new normal", which is generally a form of trench warfare that also took place during the World War I period. On the battlefront, both sides have relatively stable fortification systems for defense. There are two fronts, and both sides mainly attack by long-range artillery fire. For this reason, it is very difficult to achieve a breakthrough on the front, and the cost is high, even to the unbearable level. Judging from the experience during World War I, such a "new normal" of war is a kind of circumstance that takes place before peace negotiations are signed. Theoretically, while the situation can continue, in practice there will be a time when both sides will be worn out. This was the case during World War I, and ditto the war in Ukraine now.

However, could it just be the result of the war being taken place in winter now?

The climate in winter does have an impact on the battlefront, but it is not immense. During World War II, there was a large number of battles launched in winter, with a huge impact. For example, there were many winter battles on the Eastern Front. In addition to that, the Battle of the Bulge on the Western Front was also launched in the cold winter season. Therefore, although the climate in winter has an impact, it is only in terms of war costs and will not affect the progress of the war. The current situation shows that there are still problems in the war system itself, and both sides are now getting close to the moment when the war can no longer be fought. As I have pointed out in the past, such a moment was when the two sides will negotiate, and whether Ukraine wants to admit it or not, that moment is at hand.

Will Ukraine continue to fight in the future?

This mainly depends on if Ukraine can obtain war resources to carry out the breakthrough of war. At present, it has not been able to do so. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy personally went to the United States, his only foreign visit during wartime, for this purpose. Yet, in the end, despite the impressive speeches and the diplomatic displays, Zelenskyy only obtained the Patriot air defense system. At least, he did not return empty-handed. In addition, while the war resources provided by Germany and the United Kingdom have not been exhausted, they are getting used up. Even NATO leaders have begun to speak again, asking its member countries to provide more equipment and resources for Ukraine to deal with the "long-term war". In other words, the war resources provided by NATO are far from enough for Ukraine to continue fighting. Those "outsiders" of the war are also very much looking forward to the start of peace negotiations. Of course, all of this is a process. It is not easy for Zelenskyy to really initiate peace negotiations. The "wearing out" of the war is actually a negotiation strategy and a stage of bargaining chip exchange.

Will it be advantageous for Russia to conduct peace negotiations now?

This issue, in fact, does not exist at all, because as far as the war in Ukraine is concerned, as long as there is no victory, then Russia will be considered a loser. Russia under Vladimir Putin has already lost the war, and now it is a question of whether Putin has lost Russia as well. Therefore, even if the war enters the real negotiation stage, Russia, as well as Putin, will not gain anything from it. 100,000 among the Russian troops were killed, and countless were injured. Previously known for their warlike spirit, now many of the Russian soldiers have become prisoners of war. Adding salt to injury, Russian weapons, once thought to be cutting-edge, are now unsaleable. Its military reform failed completely, and the frontline troops were forced to reorganize.

What Putin is striving for now is actually to remind the world that Russia still exists as a country. Of course, while Russia fails miserably, the whole world has changed as well because of the war. As things stand, more changes are taking place, which will challenge the wisdom of the leadership of countries around the globe.

All these will eventually become more apparent in 2023.