The prospect, or rather the outcome, of the war in Ukraine, is determined to some extent by secret negotiations between the United States and Russia. The phrase "to some extent" is used here because Ukraine has the right to determine its destiny after all, and external influence is but one of the decisive factors.

In fact, the basic logic of the secret U.S.-Russian negotiations was clearly formed as early as June this year. On July 18 this year, I pointed out in a geopolitical assessment that, such a secret talk may emerge in the stalemate stage of the war, making it a major issue and a new turning point. In reality, negotiations have always been conducted in regard to the war in Ukraine, such as those of humanitarian corridors, prisoner exchange, food exports, etc. All these are not new. The problem is that among all the negotiations, only the negotiations between the United States and Russia have overall significance and will affect the outcome of the war.

It is worth noting that since July, news that the United States and Russia are negotiating in secret has really begun to emerge gradually.

On August 5, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder told the world that the "Kremlin is willing to negotiate", and such information is significant.

On August 6, it was reported that at the end of July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had talked with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey, but it was said that the main topic was the U.S. hostage issue in Russia. At that time, Ukraine's attitude was firm, insisting that negotiations can only be done after its territory are recovered. It is precisely such a stance of Ukraine that there is a need for secret negotiations between the United States and Russia.

On August 16, the British newspaper The Mirror said that the CIA was in secret talks with the Kremlin. The Kremlin insider is said to be "one of the pillars of the Russian regime". The Ukrainian diplomatic source did not deny the existence of such secret negotiations, saying it "would not come as a surprise”.

On August 18, Oleksiy Arestovych, military adviser to Ukraine's presidency, confirmed in an interview with a former Russian lawyer and politician Mark Feygin that the Russian officials were on a visit to the West, and those from Putin's inner circle were sent to the United States to negotiate.

Since then, things have changed a bit, perhaps because the negotiation did not go well and the result could not satisfy Putin. He appeared to be in outrage and seemed to want Ukraine’s surrender as the condition for negotiations.

Then came the defeat of the Russian army in Kharkiv, and Russia's "partial mobilization". However, almost at the same time, the largest prisoner exchange operation between the two sides took place, which even included the officers and soldiers of the Azov Regiment in Mariupol, to the great dissatisfaction of the Russian nationalists.

On September 23, Japanese media obtained inside information that in September this year, the United States had secretly dispatched a special envoy to secretly negotiate with Russia on the peace issue in Ukraine again. The relevant report this time directly pointed out that the negotiator sent by the United States was Bill Richardson.

Taken together, despite the turmoil of the war and the tough statements of the leaders of the United States and Ukraine, it seems that such secret negotiations are ongoing. The real ending may also have something to do with China. If there is peace in Europe, and if there is no trace of China's involvement and assistance in this process, then the world's future attention, including that of Russia, will be on China. Such a prospect is perhaps beyond doubt.