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Sunday, August 21, 2022
The Post-Russia World
Kung Chan

Russia today has inherited the legacy of its Soviet Union past. The importance of this legacy can be seen in two powerful aspects of the country, namely its military-industrial system, and the natural resources. Theoretically, these two legacies, if used carefully and kept with a certain degree of confidentiality, can still last for a long time. However, Vladimir Putin has made a major geopolitical blunder. He only saw the failure of the United States in Afghanistan and not its technological superiority. As a result, this has led Putin to adopt a risky strategy. He assaulted, or at least intervene in various regions, from Georgia, Crimea, Syria, Libya, and Armenia, to Kazakhstan, and then Ukraine now. His abuse of the Soviet legacy, metaphorically speaking, can be likened to draining the pond to get all the fish in it, i.e., getting short-term profit without considering the long-term damaging effects.

Putin’s mistake is the direct cause of the failure of Russia today.

The so-called "advanced" weapons of Russia apparently, do not live up to the expectations. For example, the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet has rather poor actual combat performance, mainly due to its unreliability and that it is prone to various problems. It is reported that among the Su-35 fighter jets exported by Russia to other countries, the availability rate is only 37.5%. Of the 24 Su-35 fighter jets, only 9 can be used normally.

Other weapons, touted as “sophisticated”, like its numerous tanks and armored vehicles, were destroyed on the Ukrainian battlefield. Even the top tanks like the T90M have been obliterated, or even captured by the Ukrainian army. Others, such as the T72, which has been widely imitated by various countries, were beaten, and their wreckage was all over the Ukrainian wilderness. Because there are too many losses, Russia has now resorted to sending a large number of old T62 tanks to the front line.

S-300, S-400, and even S-500 anti-aircraft missiles, which were thought to be able to compete with the American Patriot air defense missiles in the past, have always been Russia's most profitable mysterious weapons. In reality, the performance of these Russian air defense missiles is weak. The air base in Crimea was guarded by two battalions of S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles, yet they failed to do their job when the air base was bombed by Ukraine and a number of fighter jets were lost. Due to its poor performance, the Russian army now even uses the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles as ground weapons to bombard Ukrainian streets. This must be embarrassing for Turkey, for earlier its relations with the United States were tense due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system.

When it comes to the air force, things look even worse on the Russian side

Russia not only issues obituaries on Air Force Day to commemorate the death of more than 200 fighter pilots, but now the Ukrainian air force is able to bombard the Russian military sites indiscriminately in broad daylight. Things have completely turned upside down. In the past, Russia was hailed as a nation endowed with fighting spirit, yet now it has become a common sight for the Russian army to give up equipment at every turn during the battle and abandon their comrades in battle.

The flaws of Russian weapons and equipment have now been fully exposed. The Ukrainians have used HIMARS rockets to blast the Russian ammunition depots, railway stations, and military division headquarters one after another. Even the Wagner Group mercenary base in Popasna has also been destroyed by Ukraine. Since the war in Ukraine started, Russia has sent 85% of its active-duty troops to combat, and the Ukrainian army has wiped out 20% of them. In addition, 40% of the Russian army's own senior generals have been replaced. The myth of Russia's military strength, as it stands, has burst.

How then, does Russia’s weaponization of energy sources fare?

In 2021, Russia supplied 17% of global natural gas consumption and 40% of Europe's natural gas consumption. According to Putin's strategic plan, weaponizing energy would be sufficient to make Europe down on its knees. Yet, such a plan is limited by two factors. First, it is short-term; second, it is replaceable. Europe did well in the past without Russia's cheap energy, and now it is just a matter of adjustment.

In 2021, Russia's crude oil production exceeds 10.4 million barrels per day, providing about 25% of Europe's oil supply. In addition, it also supplied coal, ore, and wheat. While this is pretty much the whole of the Russian economy, it is only a small part to Europe. Europeans can get other alternatives, for instance using clean coal power or nuclear power, and locating other sources of oil and gas instead. Iran is one such source. Now, Western countries are actively working on the nuclear deal with Iran, aiming to replace part of Russia's energy supplies. Iran's stance towards this too, is quite positive as well.

The weaponization of energy, it seems, is unsustainable in the long run.

In the book Reinventing Fire, American energy expert Amory Lovins and the Rocky Mountain Institute contend that before 2050, the United States can completely eliminate coal, oil, and nuclear energy, and only rely on large-scale development of renewable energy through massive energy efficiency improvements. Along with some natural gas, this could meet all of America's energy needs. WWF also has a grand vision of realizing 100% renewable energy in the world by 2050, and the prospect of controllable nuclear fusion replacing petrochemical energy is also very obvious. Once adopted on a large scale, the global oil industry may even shrink by 90%.

The purported reason for the war in Ukraine was supposedly NATO’s eastward expansion. Now, Finland and Sweden have abandoned their neutrality and joined NATO. The entire Baltic Sea has actually become an inland sea of NATO, and Russia does not dare to take any move. It also turns out that Azerbaijan has taken advantage of Russia's deep quagmire of war and started to clash with Armenia again. Although Armenia was a supporter of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to some extent, Russia is unable to assist it. Furthermore, while appearing on the same stage with Putin, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proclaimed that he had no intention of recognizing any Russia-sponsored “quasi-state formations” in Ukraine. Putin was certainly furious, but there is nothing that he could do.

Indeed, Putin appeared to be rather humble when he met Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, surprising the whole world. Then, he was snubbed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey. Putin had to wait in front of the cameras for a long time before Erdoğan came forward to meet him. Then, not long after Putin’s visit, Turkey announced the company that exports Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, whose board members include Erdoğan's son-in-law, will open a new factory in Ukraine. To this, Moscow only said it will destroy the factory.

Russia appears to be on the track of going downhill, and a lot of Russians would agree with this. Igor Girkin, also known as Strelkov, a former FSB officer who was responsible for Russia’s victory in Crimea and Donbas, recently said something that was possibly offensive to Russians. His view of Russia’s future is gloomy and stated that it would be better to move the capital from Moscow to Volgograd and start all over again. Strelkov appeared to understand the situation well. The Russians were indeed endowed with the fighting spirit, but this was a page in history and not the description of the current situation. Moscow’s mistake in geopolitical judgment has led to the current outcome, and it can only accept the reality. There will be no place for Russia in the future, and this is the reality that the world will face.

We shall witness the emergence of a 2+N world. The United States and China will become the two leading powers, followed by countless countries, including Europe. This is good news for China, yet it is also bad news. China will be finally ranked among the top powers in the world, by then it will have its voice heard and carry more weight that the rest of the world cannot bear to ignore. Yet, it will also become the target of others, where it will spend an excessively huge amount of resources as the leader of developing nations.

In a 2+N world, what will Putin do? The only thing he has to do is to deal with his endless internal enemies. He will be caught in a vicious cycle that no matter how hard he tries, there will always be more and more enemies within. Therefore, China cannot rely on Putin’s Russia. On the contrary, Russia must desperately rely on China's support. Because of Putin, China has been pushed to the front with no way out.

Is China ready for this? Apparently not. The status quo of China is that it will be pushed to the position of leader, but it is still unprepared for that. China should have global vision. It will become a major power on par with the United States, after all.

There will be about 10 years window period for this to take place. During that decade, the response adjustment of countries around the world to that will not really be completed. Any major re-alignment will always take a long time. Whether China wants to or not, it is inevitable that China will be ranked within the 2+N pattern. While it still might be in a state of confusion, it will gradually take up the responsibilities as a major power.

What happens after that decade perhaps will be a different story.

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