As the world gets fatigued with news of the war in Ukraine, an inevitable question that emerges is, "when will this war be negotiated to end"?

Perhaps there are too many people asking the same question, so much so that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy answered it in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on 22 July that, "any cease-fire that allows Russia to keep Ukrainian territories seized since the invasion in February would only encourage an even wider conflict, giving Moscow a badly-needed opportunity to replenish and rearm for the next round". What the President clearly stated is that the ceasefire agreement cannot be premised on the loss of territories by Ukraine.

It was also on July 22 that President Zelenskyy made another video speech, in which he reiterated that Ukrainian society is not ready to negotiate with Russia. Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the President, stated on the same day that there is currently no basis for Ukraine to resume negotiations with Russia. The Ukrainian side will only return to the negotiating table after a certain victory.

On the Russian side, considering President Vladimir Putin's tough stance, and the resources that Russia as major power possesses, coupled with its great power resources, it would be improbable that Putin would admit defeat. Lest we forget, Russia has yet to carry out nationwide mobilization, which means that it does not need to do that to fight the Ukraine war. Ukraine is still a geopolitical "minor goal" that can be easily achieved in the eyes of Russia. In addition, the war is also related to Putin's political career. If it ends in a disastrous defeat, that would spell the end of his political image.

When both sides are in a stalemate and continuously fighting, the situation will then lead toward the direction of a protracted war. When will this war be expected to end, and when will the two sides start serious peace talks? All these have become difficult questions.

Given the current geopolitical situation, serious peace talks between Russia and Ukraine must meet the preconditions of "two impossibilities".

The first "impossibility" is that it would be impossible for Russia to win geopolitical interests if it continues the war. This scenario is increasingly apparent, in that instead of gaining any advantages, Russia is losing more and more geopolitical interests. Because of the war in Ukraine, two neutral countries on Russia's northern border, Sweden and Finland, have joined NATO. The excuse of Russia to initiate the war was "NATO's eastward expansion", yet ironically it is precisely because of the war that NATO has come directly to Russia's doorsteps. Russia too will eventually see that a complete occupation of Ukraine is next to improbable. If it really evolves into a protracted war, this would pose a major resource issue for Russia, if not a geopolitical one.

The second "impossibility" is that Ukraine cannot immediately take back Crimea and its lost territories. First, even with significant Western aid, the Ukrainian military would not be strong enough to disintegrate the Russian military. In addition, there are a large number of Russians living in Crimea and eastern Donbas, and their wishes and rights cannot be ignored by the international community. Zelenskyy can only accept the possibility of serious negotiations when he understands this.

These two "impossibilities" determine that the Russian army must achieve a decent victory as in Luhansk-Donbass. At the same time, it will need to consolidate its defense line on the east bank of the Dnipro, which cannot be breached by the Ukrainians. To put it bluntly, Russia would not allow the Ukrainian side to achieve significant results, as that would form the basis for the Ukrainians to quickly drive away the Russian army and support Zelenskyy's theory of victory.

It is also because of these two "impossibilities" that the West will begin to pressure Ukraine and push for peace talks. Although both Russia and Ukraine are still fighting intensively on the battlefields, other countries are getting impatient. If the situation becomes a protracted war, it will make the world to press Zelenskyy into admitting that it is impossible to get back all of Ukraine's lost territories now.

Apart from these two "impossibilities", what are the other scenarios that might arise?

The answer is simple: the war will continue and there will not be peace.

Understandably, these two "impossibilities" will not be satisfactory to either Russia or Ukraine, or the world for that matter. Yet, it is because of this that we have hope for peace. After all, geopolitics is about space and equilibrium. The two "impossibilities" actually mean that a feasible equilibrium might emerge.