While the outcome of the U.S. election is clear, there is yet to be a final official announcement. Donald Trump is struggling to make the final resistance and there are still possibilities for him to create more issues. For now, the operation of the Joe Biden's administration is proceeding as per usual. The question is, what will the Biden administration do in the future? Previously, ANBOUND has made a series of important predictions and analyses, and these predictions are gradually being verified. Focusing on the future, we provide the following supplementary analyses and judgments:
(1)The major issue for the Biden administration is economic development. It is expected that Biden will inherit a series of economic development momentum from Obama to Trump. Even in the case of disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic, he can still achieve relative economic success in 2020. However, problems will arise in 2021, and the economic growth of the United States is expected to encounter greater challenges, making this a critical moment to test the capabilities of the Biden administration. Coupled with the anticipated huge economic stimulus plan, if the Biden administration is be able to get through 2021 smoothly, then Biden's biggest problem in the entire four-year term will be resolved. Otherwise, the Biden administration will face enormous economic challenges, not to mention criticism from within the country.
(2) The easiest thing for the Biden administration to deal with is in fact, the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the Biden administration has now adopted an attitude of respecting professionalism and has a group of medical experts to deal with the coronavirus, the most difficult period of the pandemic in the United States was during the time of Trump administration. By the time of the Biden administration, not only will the vaccine be nearly completed, both the American society and the corresponding measures have become more ready in controlling the outbreak. Therefore, these experts would have fewer roles to play. We expect that if the Biden administration does not make any mistakes, it will be able to successfully overcome the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic.
(3) Diplomacy is seen as an important legacy of Trump and will be inherited by Biden. As per ANBOUND's previous analyses, the Trump administration has actually done things that previous U.S. administrations were unable to do, and the Biden administration is reaping the benefits from this. Biden can opt to continue Trump's legacies if he deems them fitting, or he could revert to older ways. Therefore, in terms of diplomacy, the Biden administration has more space than previous U.S. administrations. It is expected that under normal circumstances, some of the propositions and practices that Trump insists on will be regarded as "Trumpism" and will be carried forward in American diplomacy.
(4) Administration is expectedly, the top priority for Biden. We estimate that the Biden administration will immediately issue a series of executive orders to undo the Trump administration's blunders and restore the original order of the establishment. Since the Trump administration mainly relies on executive orders to achieve the President's wishes, the same use of executive orders will be very helpful to reinstate the integrity and effectiveness of the U.S. establishment. On this basis, it is estimated that the Biden administration will restore the vitality of the U.S. government faster than expected.
(5) It is expected that the Biden administration will insist on what the United States has acquired in trade, but it will also demand more though it might adopt a different set of concepts and methods from those used by the Trump administration. After all, the issue of trade is business, so the profit and loss principle in business will still play a major role, and there will be no huge changes. However, the ideological element of the trade competition will be reduced. As far as U.S.-China trade relations are concerned, some things will stay the same, while other will change. One cannot be optimistically expecting that China's trade environment will undergo fundamental changes in nature, though there will still be changes in the form of the competition.
(6) With regard to the relationship between Trump and Biden, if Trump knows when to reign himself in, the Biden administration may respect conventions and continue to adopt a modest policy, only dealing with Rudy Giuliani and others. If however, Trump persists in resisting to the end and completely ignoring the established order, then one cannot rule out that Biden might adopt retaliatory political measures against Trump. If Biden "retaliates", it is likely to be a conditional concerted action by the two parties. Although this possibility seems unlikely now, it still exists.
(7) The political bodies that feel the most unfavorable for American influence under the Biden administration are Russia, Israel, and Taiwan. Among them, Israel's feelings will be the strongest, and Benjamin Netanyahu's mission is expected to end soon. Under the influence of the Biden administration, there is not much he can do. Although Russia is under Vladimir Putin's operation, because the Biden government is an establishment government, Putin's strategic operation of using personal influence will encounter great limitations. No matter how capable Putin is, he cannot exert influence on all aspects of the U.S. government, let alone strike deals. Therefore, it is expected that Russia will be silent for a period, and it will not be as influential as it was during the Trump era.
U.S. law stipulates that no matter how the Trump administration resists, power must be handed over by January 20, 2021, otherwise Congress will take over the U.S. government, which is even more detrimental to the Republican Party. Therefore, the current outlook is actually a basic outline forecast for the United States in the next four years. It should be noted that these predictions are forward-looking; whether the development of reality can finally verify these predictions remains to be seen, but it is certain that this is the best inference we can make based on actual evidence.
Final analysis conclusion:
Trump's resistance does not prevent the Biden administration from gradually getting on the right track. The biggest problem that the Biden administration will face is economic development, while the easiest to deal with is the COVID-19 pandemic. In terms of diplomacy, the Biden administration will inherit parts of the Trump administration's diplomatic legacy while making some amendments and changes. As an establishment politician, Biden will promote the return of the United States to an establishment, which will have a great impact on the future international political landscape.
(Relevant analyses are from the "ANBOUND 100+" high-end discussion group platform)
