Propelled by the United States, major countries in the world are forced to choose sides. The U.S. government uses Huawei as a tool for such purpose; if a country supports the United States, it must abandon Huawei. The U.S. has also imposed a series of sanctions on Huawei. Under strong pressure from the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand have already excluded Huawei from their domestic 5G market. Although France has not rejected Huawei politically, it has decided not to update Huawei's equipment and will naturally phase out Huawei's equipment within 5-7 years. The German government has also adopted a similar approach. Although Germany has not made a public decision to ban Huawei, it directly chose Ericsson in the tender for 5G network construction.
It appears to be the trend that other European countries are likely to reject Huawei in their construction of 5G networks. Other than the developed countries in the West, Vietnam among the developing countries will clearly not adopt Huawei’s technology. India will hold an emergency meeting recently to assess the risk of Huawei and ZTE joining India’s 5G network. Among those invited to the meeting are Bharti Airtel, the largest telecom operator in India, and Vodafone Idea, the second largest operator. In the 2G, 3G, and 4G telecommunication equipment of these two Indian operators, Huawei and ZTE have a market share of 25%. With the current development of India-China relations, India’s 5G network risk assessment is clearly detrimental to Huawei. In view of the fact that Huawei has been established by the United States as a "touchstone" with strong geopolitical implications, for countries and regions including those in ASEAN, South America, and even some countries in Africa, Huawei's 5G network might not be within their choice in the future. The U.S. strategy of rejecting and restricting Huawei so far has been successful.
Huawei has unfortunately become the primary target of the United States' long-term strategy to contain China's rise, a fate that Huawei cannot choose. In the future, Huawei may face the following situations: (1) Huawei’s 5G network will be based on the Chinese market, plus the markets of some developing countries; (2) Under geopolitical pressures, Huawei’s international market layout will have to be adjusted; (3) Huawei’s R&D activities in many countries may be negatively affected, especially in the West, its R&D activities may be restricted; (4) Huawei’s business areas may have to be adjusted, 5G network equipment, mobile phones, etc. will all be affected; (5) Huawei needs to seek breakthroughs in two key areas: First, chip supply. Huawei’s current predicament is basically unresolved. Should Huawei manufacture the chips on its own, or should it seek for manufacturers other than the U.S.? This remains a challenge. The second is the industrial ecological construction from the operating system to hardware to the application. However, the construction of the industrial ecosystem requires the participation of many companies around the world, without which Huawei could not have achieved it alone. In the future, Huawei's development space and destiny will be closely related to the changes in the geopolitical environment facing China.