When it comes to changes in the world and international relations, one unavoidable question is the theme of the time. Changes in the world and changes in international relations can be generalized and summarized, and the theme of the time is such generalization and summary in this sense. Of course, there is also a right or wrong point for this, which needs to be verified by facts.
In my view, the theme of the time is divided into three eras of time.
The first era is the era during pre-war and post-war. During this era, the theme of the time is war and revolution. In World War I and World War II, humans fought with each other and millions had died. In the world at that period of time, a group of politicians appeared, with novel ideas and charisma. At the same time, national independence movements gave birth to numerous newly independent countries. Of course, revolution has never been separated from war. The Korean War and the Vietnam War became widely known, more so than the wars in Africa and Malaya.
The second era is an era of peaceful development. The theme of this era is economical achievement. I believe that The Marshall Plan is a miracle in history, and it established the overall situation of peaceful development after the Second World War. First was the growth of the Japanese economy. In 1968, Japan reached the level of West Germany, became the world's second largest economy and had managed to maintain this position for decades. Then, came The Four Asian Tigers, and the economic growth of ASEAN countries. Industrial relocation accompanied with the occurrence of world capital promoted the emergence of the concept of globalization where people witnessed economic miracles continuously being unfolded in different parts of the world. Even in China which was backwards and poor back then, the reform and opening-up led to the influx of foreign capital, and brought dramatic changes to the economy of China. From the beginning in 1978, where the per capita GDP was only US$ 154, China quickly rose to become the world's second largest economy, surpassing Japan. The pillar factor of this period is the emergence of the wave of multilateralism in the world. Besides, the emergence of a large number of multilateral organizations had created an environment of peaceful development, and the occurrence of stable contradictions made it possible for the development to happen.
The third era is the era of reverse globalization. To be precise, it is the reverse stage in the globalization process. This stage of reverse globalization is a major point of divergence in the current world, because many people are unwilling to see such a situation based on their own interests and visions, so their instinctive reaction is to find a reason for negation. However, we have previously stated that the reasons for the emergence of the reverse globalization stage. This is precisely the result of the in-depth development of globalization. The stage of social development in various countries cannot adapt to the urgent pressure of globalization, so it takes time to make major adjustments and social reorganizations, leading to the emergence of the reverse globalization stage. Since it is the stage of reverse globalization, the various phenomena of globalization will be reversed. Multilateral relations will be replaced by bilateral relations, friendships have been replaced by competition, while spatial competition and control now ascend to become the top priority of all countries. Therefore, standards, camps, and barriers will come into play again, all of which are inevitable.
There are many changes in the world and in international relations, but the most important changes with a leading and dominant position is the change of the theme of three eras. The theme of three eras, especially the definition of the stage of reverse globalization, not only determines the changes in the world for a certain length of time in the future, but also determines everything else in the world. Now is the last moment for countries and industries to revise and reorganize the optimistic thinking of the past, such as "the center of global economic growth is Asia", "Belt and Road Initiative", "China and the United States are mutually dependent", "peaceful rise", "multipolar world", and even "community with a shared future for mankind", and so on. All countries in the world have many similar optimistic expectations that need to be revised. Since it is the stage of reverse globalization, contractions and reorganizations are the most important features of this era, yet the much talked-about "hot war" is not the most important option. Regional conflicts are most likely to happen, but the reorganization of the societies of various countries, especially the adjustment of interests, is even more important.
For the future world, perhaps we can cite a story. A few years ago, the United States was not satisfied with the human rights situation in Singapore and specially sent the assistant secretary of states to Singapore to meet with Mr. Lee Kuan Yew and put forward that Singapore should improve its human rights situation. Mr. Lee Kuan Yew patiently listened to the request made by the U.S side, and finally answered that such request could be fulfilled, provided the United States put the pledge in black-and-white that if Singapore collapsed because of fulfilling the request, the U.S. would bear the responsibility to rebuild Singapore. The U.S. naturally could not guarantee that, and now it still has a good relationship with Singapore, and also cannot guarantee that Singapore-U.S. relations are far better than Singapore-China relations. This story reveals the world to come, where no country would think about the needs of the multilateral world. Instead, countries would follow their own standard, and focus on their own interests. Such a world has come, and any country that does not do things this way, there is a risk for it to be eliminated in the world.
Final analysis conclusion:
The global development in the past century has experienced three major eras of history: war and revolution, peace and development and finally reverse globalization. The current world has entered the reverse globalization stage in the process of globalization. The theme of this era has changed a lot, with contraction and reorganization being the main characteristics. Hence, we should adapt to the changes of the times and make corresponding adjustments to be better compatible with the changed world.
