Recently, accordingly to Japanese media reports, both Chinese & Japanese governments have started to discuss about the signing the new political document known as the Fifth Communique during Chinese President Xi Jinping's plan to visit to Japan next spring. With the trend of deteriorated United States-China relations, improving China-Japan bilateral relations has become the strategic choice for both countries. However, with regards to the strategic consideration of this trend, both China & Japan have either remained silence, being extremely cautious, or taking a wait-and-see attitude.
From the perspective of public policy research, the current China-Japan relations has reached a stage whereby it is beyond the ability of ordinary news analyses to place a precise comment. This is due to the complicated factors that have been taken in place. As a result, the silence of both China and Japan in this issue is well expected. In fact, a lot of observers merely concludes that the progress of China-Japan relations is the result of expedient of Trump’s unilateral diplomatic approach, but not the active choice of both countries. The view above would seems one-sided in the perspective of geopolitics. The progress of China-Japan relations has reflected the ultimate changing trend of Northeast Asian geopolitical structure, and the choices of both countries are based on their respective national interest.
This regional change of Asian structure is the result of comprehensive effect of various factors. First of all, the United States has repositioned its own national strategy, from multilateral policy since Obama’s era, to “America First” in Trump’s era. This has caused America’s allies who play exclusive predominant roles in world affairs to show the signs of splitting up, and caused the change in regional power structure. The Northeast Asian countries nowadays, from North Korea to South Korea, from Japan to China, all are adjusting their own’s strategic placement and plans to accommodate such structural change. East Asia is not alone in this. Around the world, from India to Japan, from Turkey to NATO, many are also facing the challenge of repositioning. For instance, actions had been taken by Turkey in Syria, and gained substantial benefits. India had annexed Kashmir completely with legal approach, and even includes territories in dispute with China. South China Sea territories too, is being carved up. Under this situation, as the key link of United States alliance framework in Asia Pacific, Japan’s re-adjustment of own’s policy towards this situation can be deemed as a kind of compliance.
On the other hand, the growing of Chinese power, especially within the region of Northeast Asia to North Asia, has caused some unavoidable impacts to the system dominated by the United States and its allies. In the competitions between China and United States, there is the need to prevent any actual military confrontation. As a result, different countries in the world are adjusting their previous one-sided policies. Japan for example, hopes to collaborate with China in terms of economics, while relying on the United States in terms of strategic partnering. Japan aspires to become a global leading power, but on the other hand as a country with stagnant performance, it hopes the current U.S.-China situation of controllable conflicts can be maintained. Under such circumstances, Japan does not need to choose sides. From this perspective, even though China-Japan relationship remains the good condition of mutual understanding, support and interactions, Japan’s strategy in striving could be clearly observed. The dispute between the United States and China is not something Japan hopes for, however. Japan is not ready to give up the protection under the U.S.-Japan alliance. As a result, in the reality of international relations, in some extents Japan is creating the baseline of U.S.-China relations.
As for China, the improvement of China-Japan relations also meets China’s strategic appeals. First of all, as mentioned before, the improvement of China-Japan relations would stabilize the situation in Northeast Asia. This would be one of the biggest diplomatic appeal of China currently. Secondly, the prospect of economic collaboration between China and Japan will be playing a motivating role in Chinese economy, especially in the context of extended full range U.S.-China trade war. Thirdly, the improvement of China-Japan relations, under the right circumstances, would cause the disintegration of the U.S.-Asia Pacific Alliance.
Therefore, at least in current situation, the progress of China-Japan relations is in fact complied with strategic benefits for both parties. However, in the context of development of China-Japan relations, some unstable factors still exist, including the Diaoyu Island dispute, issues regarding Taiwan, and matters on trading. Among these, the Taiwan issue involves China’s core benefit, which requires more time to be resolved. On the other hand, trading issues involve many other factors that are out of both countries’ control. The dispute over Diaoyu Island is the biggest hidden threat to China-Japan relations, as it involves national sovereignty. Any situation change in Diaoyu Island would probably escalate into ideological realm, which will bring indelible impact. The problem that the Chinese observers need to understand is, even though China-Japan relations are currently having good momentum of development, this is solely relying on their leaders’ diplomacy and fundamental consensus. This however, would not change the nature of the bilateral relationship. Once some unforeseen circumstances occur, the bilateral relationship would fall back to situation in the past. ANBOUND has previously suggested that both China and Japan should think beyond sovereignty to solve Diaoyu Island Dispute; the ultimate goal of the suggestion is to resolve a crucial and controversial problem between China & Japan, and change the bilateral relations fundamentally.
What has to be pointed out is, ANBOUND does not think that the Diaoyu Island dispute could be resolved easily. Yet, for Beijing & Tokyo, to improve the China-Japan relations in a comprehensive way, the Diaoyu Islands dispute is still an issue required to be resolved. Therefore, the next step of China-Japan relations will be full of challenges and obstacles, though not without positive prospects. To prevent the fluctuation of China-Japan relations, both parties should make critical decisions within respective strategic frameworks.
Final analysis conclusion:
The development of China-Japan relations has important strategic significance towards China’s development. Solely relying on leaders’ diplomacy and communiques probably could not materialize substantial progress in the relations of both countries. Among all the problems arise between China and Japan, the Diaoyu Island dispute is the most practical problem to be handled. The solution proposed by ANBOUND, that is looking beyond sovereignty, is something worth to be considered by various parties.
