While the U.S.-China trade negotiations have grabbed the attention of the world, another highly important event, the informal meeting between the leaders of China and India has received less attention than it deserves. From October 11 to 12, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a second informal meeting in Chennai, India. This meeting was intended to deepen the contact between the two countries at the highest level. If China and India can find a new framework of cooperation, it will affect the future direction of China-India relations.
According to official Chinese reports, President Xi Jinping put forward "six proposals" for the development of China-India relations. Firstly, Xi pointed out the need to look properly at the development of the other side and enhance strategic mutual trust, where he metaphorically described this as the "only correct option for China and India", going as far as describing it to be "the dance of the dragon and the elephant". Secondly, Xi emphasized on timely and effective strategic communication, in order to enhance mutual understanding and cooperation, and to firmly grasp the general direction of the development of bilateral relations. This proposal is to seek a solution to the boundary issue that is fair, reasonable and acceptable to both sides. Thirdly, Xi stated the necessity to effectively improve the level of military security exchanges and cooperation. Fourthly, Xi mentioned the deepening of pragmatic cooperation and the tightening ties between the countries. Xi proposed to strengthen the economic development strategy of the two countries and explore the establishment of a manufacturing partnership, and he particularly welcomed Indian pharmaceutical companies and information technology companies to invest in China. Fifthly, Xi proposed to enrich cultural and people-to-people exchanges to consolidate the foundation of friendship. Lastly, Xi also mentioned the strengthening of cooperation in international and regional affairs, within the framework of multilateral mechanisms such as the G20, BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the China-Russia-India cooperation, as well as the need to explore the gradual expansion of the "China-India Plus" cooperation to South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. In addition, Xi also expressed the need to create a more unobstructed regional connectivity network, and strike the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement as early as possible.
Judging from the six proposals put forward by President Xi, most of them are involved in important issues between China and India, and even some sensitive issues (such as territorial issues) between the two. ANBOUND's research team believes that these issues show the openness of China, in addition to showing China's intention to promote China-India relations from a strategic height.
ANBOUND's researchers believe that it is crucial for China and India to strengthen their cooperation regardless of the progress of the U.S.-China trade agreement. Experts at U.S. think tank Carnegie Center said that India needs to find a framework for cooperation with China. ANBOUND believes that this framework of cooperation is mutual, and China too needs to find a new framework for its cooperation with India. Based on long-term and follow-up research, we believe that in the future China-Indian cooperation framework, the following issues will be addressed:
1. The relationship between China, India and Pakistan: For a long time, China and Pakistan have maintained a good relationship. On many issues of the India-Pakistan conflict, China has almost always been on Pakistan's side. In the future framework of cooperation between China and India, China may need to make some adaptive adjustments in order to balance the interests and its relations between India and Pakistan.
2. The territorial issue between China and India: The China-Indian territorial issue has a long history and there are small-scale border conflicts from time to time, which has been escalating in recent years. However, with the informal meeting between the Chinese and Indian leaders in Wuhan, the dispute has been eased. After President Xi's meeting with Prime Minister Modi in Chennai, the China-Indian territorial issue is expected to be handled in a more open manner. In the future, it is possible for China and India to control the territorial issue within a framework recognized by both sides. Working without this framework can help to play a certain "controlling" role.
3. The issue of mutual market-opening for China: A current concern for both the Chinese and Indian economies is that India has a huge trade deficit with China. In order to balance trade relations, China may need to open more markets to India. At the same time, it should be pointed out that the trade deficit between China and India is mainly caused by structural factors. India is a developing a consumer economy, while China is a "world factory"-style manufacturing power. In the future, China and India can open their markets to each other on a complementary basis to promote a healthier trade relationship between the nations.
4. The issue of mutual investment between China and India: Mutual investment can strengthen the economic ties between the two countries, as well as enhance mutual cooperation and development. Currently, many Chinese companies have begun to invest heavily in India, but Indian companies invest relatively little in China. China should create a better investment environment for Indian companies interested in investing in China. This includes Indian companies that are interested to invest in industries such as pharmaceuticals, IT and certain financial industries.
5. India's participation in the Indo-Pacific Strategy: The Indo-Pacific Strategy, mainly promoted by the United States, is already being implemented. This has obvious geopolitical deterrence for China's future development. India's attitude towards this strategy will have an important impact on China-India relations. If India holds a neutral attitude toward the Indo-Pacific strategy, China-Indian cooperation will be further strengthened. On the contrary, the space for further cooperation between China and India will lessen if India adopts the opposite attitude and welcomes the Indo-Pacific Strategy.
6. China-Indian cultural exchange issues: Cultural exchanges can deepen the understanding of the two countries and form a special bond for China-Indian relations. The societies in China and India have some misinterpretations and prejudice against each other's culture, all these require communication and prejudice corrections to create a suitable environment for cultural exchanges.
7. The construction and strengthening of the "BRICS" platform: The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have become a multilateral platform on the international stage. However, it is still a platform without significant international influence and voice. In the future, strengthening the cooperation and enhancing the influence and voice of the BRICS platform will have important strategic significance for both China and India. This is also a major driving force for the two countries to strengthen their cooperation.
For these two countries on both ends of the Himalayas, a new type of cooperation with regional and even global influence should be built in this new era. The stability of China-Indian relations will provide a stable foundation for the two countries in this turbulent world.
Final analysis conclusion:
In the increasingly complicated global economic and political environments, it is of great strategic importance that China and India to strengthen their cooperation. The two countries need to find a new type of cooperative framework that is not only conducive to the stability of both parties, but also as the foundation for the stable development of the region and in a broader aspect, the world.
