On September 25, 2019, the U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced officially on the commencement of impeachment procedures for President Donald Trump. Undoubtedly, this will fundamentally change the agenda of American politics and diplomatic issues that may affect the U.S.-North Korea and the U.S.-Iran negotiations, and it might even affect the future U.S.-China trade talks.
An impeachment move is essentially a political act organized in accordance with judicial procedures. This means that the key to the adoption of the impeachment move is not whether the evidence is sufficient, but on whether it can create an irreversible political trend. Simply put, the impeachment committee of the House of Representatives assumes a similar role to that of a "prosecutor" throughout the process, while the role of the Senate is similar to a "jury", making a final judgment on whether the accused (i.e. the POTUS) should be ultimately found guilty.
As far as the specific process is concerned, the impeachment can be roughly divided into three parts. The first stage, the impeachment investigation procedure can be regarded as the process of collecting evidence. This procedure was initiated by the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Pelosi changed the previous practice of voting first, but instead, she instructed the six committees of the House of Representatives to conduct independent investigations of the POTUS' actions. In fact, since the mid-term elections of 2018, the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives has conducted several investigations into the POTUS' behavior. This time, Pelosi announced that the official investigation of the impeachment stage included the past investigations as part of the impeachment process. The Trump administration's past refusal to cooperate with the congressional investigations and even his personal resistance to the subpoena will, therefore, lose its legitimacy.
After the committees complete the collection of materials, the materials will be aggregated and compiled under the House Judiciary Committee, which will write the official impeachment document and conduct the first internal vote. Subsequently, the House of Representatives will vote on the document again on a simple majority basis. Once that stage has passed, it means that the entire process has entered the formal impeachment stage. At present, the Democrat has 235 seats in the House of Representatives. Considering the fact that there is a Republican who has publicly expressed support for impeachment, the Democrat can easily gain a simple majority and pass impeachment documents. Once this happens, the incumbent President generally has two options, either resigning or defending himself in the "judgment" of the Senate. It is worth noting that in previous Presidents who were impeached, Richard Nixon chose the former, while Bill Clinton chose the latter.
If the President opts not to resign, then the impeachment enters the final stage. The Senate will hold a special gathering resembles a "trial" to decide whether to dismiss the POTUS. The House of Representatives will present the evidence to the senator, and after the debate with the presidential representative, the senators will vote on it. If more than two-thirds of the senators agree to the impeachment, the POTUS will be dismissed. Subsequent violations would be transferred to the normal judiciary. Given the current close relationship between the Republican Party and Trump, it is still unrealistic to impeach the case with a two-third majority in the Republican-controlled Senate.
However, it would be incorrect to consider the current impeachment case will end suddenly in the short term, and it may even be harmful to the credibility of the Democratic Party itself. As the impeachment agenda progresses, more and more information will be exposed to the public, and the attitudes of the people and perhaps even the Republican Party may change. According to Pelosi's statement, she hopes that the entire investigation phase will be completed this year. Pelosi is a relatively conservative force within the current Democratic Party. Years of political experience has also made her understand the logic and risks of impeachment very well. Considering that the U.S. election is imminent, Pelosi's decision to open the impeachment procedure at this time means at least that on the basis of much non-public information, the Democratic Party's top leaders have reached a consensus that the impeachment case is likely to succeed. In addition, Joe Biden, a veteran politician with more than 30 years of experience, knows the rules of the United States and will not let his opponents get a hold on him. Even if Biden and his son are really affected in the impeachment, the extent would have been much lesser than the pressures Trump feels. Judging from Biden's statement, although there is an analysis that Biden may also be impacted during the impeachment process, it seems that this concern appears to have been exaggerated.
Although at the current stage, the specific direction of the impeachment move's influence cannot be determined, the Democratic Party's decision will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the U.S. politics and foreign policy. Firstly, the agenda of U.S. politics will be rewritten to some extent. The issues over migrants, the border wall with Mexico and even future elections will give way to the evolving impeachment investigation. Secondly, the Trump administration had to refocus its efforts on the domestic response to its political opponents. The problems of the United States and North Korea, the issue of the United States and Iraq, and even the U.S.-China trade negotiations, which have developed in recent times, may all see a slowdown. But it should also be pointed out that the Trump administration is likely to accelerate the resolution of diplomatic issues to balance its domestic pressures. Finally, for the Republican Party, defending Trump is largely equivalent to defending its only candidate for next year's election. This means that the contradictions between the Republicans and the Democrats are likely to develop toward extreme directions, and may even completely tear the American society apart.
Final analysis conclusion:
The Democratic Party's announcement of the impeachment process is of great significance and may have far-reaching implications for the future of American politics and its foreign policy. This is an important matter worthy of serious attention.
