Hong Kong is currently in the midst of the most severe incident of social unrest since its handover in 1997. The anti-extradition bill protest in Hong Kong commenced since June, has lasted for more than two months. The protest does not stop despite Carrie Lam, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong announcing that the bill is "dead". Instead, it becomes bigger due to various complicated factors, causing traffic congestion and impeding the operation of Hong Kong's international airport. Protestors also hope that by using social movements on the streets, more pressures will be put on the government. With the progression of these movements, the actions of a few radical protestors have turned violent and use of force by the Hong Kong police have followed suit to intensify. All these are tearing the Hong Kong society apart, and there are more and more confrontations between protestors and the Hong Kong police force. To this day, the turmoil in Hong Kong still shows no signs of ending in a peaceful manner. The impact of the Hong Kong issue has gone beyond Hong Kong itself and it has now become a matter of concern for China, the Taiwan Strait, and the international community.
Hong Kong's economy is undoubtedly affected by the ongoing protests and the market's confidence has been damaged as a result of this turmoil as well. Hong Kong's economy fell 0.4% in the second quarter. The market expects the economy to continue growing negatively in the third quarter, and Hong Kong might enter into a technical recession. Morgan Stanley has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong this year from 1% to -0.3%. Concerns about the sense of security in Hong Kong have also increased, and this could well deal fatal damage to Hong Kong as a financial center. At the social level, the internal differences and confrontations of the Hong Kong society will inevitably leave social ruptures and traumatic memories that will be difficult to heal for generations, and lay a potential tipping point for the future of Hong Kong's society.
At the international level, the Hong Kong issue has aroused great concern and controversy in the international community. The doubt on the current arrangement "one country, two systems" in the West is increasing. Hong Kong's special tariff status is also facing uncertainty. This has further influenced a wide range of other issues that are affecting the establishment of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Belt & Road Initiative, South China's economy and many other aspects. It is particularly noteworthy that the Hong Kong issue has triggered repercussions as far as Taiwan. The Hong Kong incident is likely to have an impact on the 2020 Taiwan elections and on the Taiwanese society.
The turmoil in Hong Kong society did not begin today. The contradictions in Hong Kong society have always been there, and they have finally begun to manifest themselves in intense social forms. As early as April 2015, ANBOUND warned in a tracking study that the changes in Hong Kong society should be a notable issue. The social movements dominated by young students have had a great impact on the Hong Kong society and the environment. An "economic Hong Kong" appears to be evolving toward a "political Hong Kong." With that being said, the continued social unrest in Hong Kong this year, unfortunately, proved the problems that ANBOUND had previously worried about.
ANBOUND's scholar Mr. Chan Kung, in an interview with Hong Kong Finance Weekly in 2015 (See, Strategic Watch, April 7, 2015, Vol. 440), pointed out that "street politics" and "parliamentary politics" are the keys to solving the Hong Kong problem. In recent years, Hong Kong people who did not care much about politics have become increasingly concerned about it. This phenomenon is closely related to many political and economic issues, as well as policy operations. Politics and governance absolutely cannot be limited to street politics. Instead, they should be focused on the political structure and layout of the society, in order to ensure that stability can be truly achieved. Street politics has its inherent limitations and problems, and it is very easy in street politics to move toward the extremes, violence, and irrationality. Therefore, making "street politics" return to the meeting rooms of governed politics has important developmental significance and political value. In fact, this should be recognized as a fundamental goal to reconstruct a stable Hong Kong society. To achieve this result, proper consultation is needed, and it is undeniable that the consultation itself is made up of politics.
After more than four years, we still believe to this day that "getting Hong Kong's politics back from the streets to the parliament" is the key to solving Hong Kong's problem and to end the continued turbulence in Hong Kong society. In addition, the future Hong Kong politics will be constrained within the framework of parliamentary politics, thus achieving relative stability in Hong Kong. What needs to be explained however is that this proposal involves two key points: First, "one country, two systems" will not change under this proposal, as it is the basic institutional framework of Hong Kong's governance. It should be recognized that Hong Kong people have the right to express their views, and ordinary Hong Kong people should not be equated with "Hong Kong independence movement". Hong Kong is facing many problems that need to be solved and investigated, but we shall not be confused by the conflicting information. Secondly, it is normal for young people in Hong Kong to participate in politics, but politics must be resolved and discussed within parliament in accordance with proper procedures. Therefore, it is hoped that Hong Kong people would respect parliamentary politics to discuss and resolve all issues within parliament. Under the basic framework of "one country, two systems", the central government will also respect all decisions of Hong Kong's parliament in accordance with the law.
From China's perspective, the biggest worry about parliamentary politics in Hong Kong could be the loss of control and subversion in Hong Kong's parliament. However, this is not very likely to happen because there are now three factors that govern the risks of parliamentary politics in Hong Kong. The first is the military, which is the last powerful means of legal possession in any country. In Hong Kong's Basic Law, there is a very clear definition of the military forces' role in Hong Kong. Second is the law itself. Hong Kong is a society under the rule of law, and the law remains at the core of its system. Judges at all levels of Hong Kong's courts are appointed or removed by the Chief Executive in accordance with legal procedures, and whoever is elected as the Chief Executive must first be appointed by the National People's Congress. Therefore, who assumes the role of the ultimate "decision-maker" in Hong Kong is very clear. Thirdly, to stabilize Hong Kong, there are complex political, economic and information relations that can be harnessed. Therefore, the existing political structure and system of Hong Kong can ensure the political stability of Hong Kong. There is no need to worry too much about "Hong Kong independence movement", and it is not favorable to spread parliamentary politics to public politics, or move from parliamentary politics to street politics, which would give an opportunity to certain parties with ulterior motives.
In our view, the key to all of this is to make good use of Hong Kong's existing political structure, and not to create political issues out of nothing. In this regard, the appeals of Hong Kong people are actually open to discussion, and it is up to the Hong Kong parliament to decide whether to agree to these discussions or not. From an objective point of view, the question of whether China can do well in parliamentary politics in the future is, in fact, the biggest challenge China will face in Hong Kong. On the other hand, the key to Hong Kong's long-term stability under the "one country, two systems" policy is none other than the operation of parliamentary politics. Britain has long used parliamentary politics to achieve stability in Hong Kong, and China should aim to be able to do the same.
Final Analysis Conclusion:
The Pearl of the Orient is embroiled in constant turmoil, and both Hong Kong and the Central government hope to see an end of this unrest. Given this, the key to solving Hong Kong's problems is to get Hong Kong's politics back from the streets to the parliament.
