Since its independence, India has enjoyed great geographical advantage and is rather successful in deploying geostrategies. India is now one of the supporting pillars of U.S. President Donald Trump's Indo-Pacific Strategy on Afghanistan. This of course, has led India to take the lead again and consolidate its geographical advantage.
India has been operating in Afghanistan for many years and commands strong soft power there. In 1996, the Taliban swept across Afghanistan and captured Kabul, where it established itself as the national political power. This shocked the Indian government. As India has always opposed whatever Pakistan supports, it began to support the anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan.
In 2001, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan was overthrown, and the pro-Indian Northern Alliance gained the dominant position in the new regime. India's influence in Afghanistan increased, and it began to actively participate in the reconstruction process in Afghanistan and increase its aid, effectively expanding its use of soft power. When the then Afghan President Hamid Karzai visited India in 2002, the Indian government announced that it would provide US$ 10 million in aid to Afghanistan. In 2005, then Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh visited Afghanistan and pledged that he would add an additional US$ 500 million aid to Afghanistan. From 2002 to 2012, India provided a total of US$ 1.5 billion in aid to Afghanistan. As many as 4,000 Indians served the Afghan aid project and India effectively became Afghanistan's fifth largest aid donor. In December 2013, India again promised to provide US$2 billion worth of assistance in construction funding to Afghanistan.
Prior 2011, India's aid to Afghanistan mainly focused in infrastructure, social security and education. Some more notable projects include the completed Route 606, otherwise known as Delaram-Zalangi Highway in 2008. The road connects Delaram in Nimruz, Afghanistan to Chabahar, Iran, facilitating imports and exports in Afghanistan while bypassing Pakistan. India has also assisted in projects such as the Puli Khumri-Kabul transmission line and the Salma hydropower station in Herat Province. Even the Afghan parliament building was built by India. In addition, India sent a large number of aided medical teams, accepted a number of Afghan students and helped build several Afghan schools. These actions have made India a huge influence in Afghanistan, hence Afghans have a good impression of India. This is done without India sending troops to Afghanistan.
In 2014, with the massive withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan, India began to increase military assistance to Afghanistan. In 2015, the Modi government decided to provide aggressive weapons to Afghanistan. In April and December 2015, India delivered three Cheetal helicopters and four Mi-24 attack helicopters to the Afghans, and also assumed the task of training some Afghan officers.
When Trump asked India to increase its investment in Afghanistan's reconstruction, this was actually in line with India's strategic interests in Afghanistan to counter Pakistan's influence. From the perspective of the United States, letting the more neutral India to aid Afghanistan and train the Afghan army will no doubt arise fewer opposition in Afghanistan. It will be more effective than having NATO troops stationed in Afghanistan, and can contribute to the stabilization of the Afghan society. While Trump has no issues against India helping to build and train the Afghan army, it may be difficult for India to send troops or police forces to Afghanistan. According to media reports, the Indian government has clearly stated that it does not send troops to Afghanistan. However, even if it does not send troops, India will still be able to greatly aid Trump's implementation of the new Afghan strategy. After all, it is more effective to build the Afghan economy and stabilize the society through aid-driven construction than by military means, and India is more suitable than the Western countries to carry out this kind of job.
India's intervention model for the situation in the South Asian subcontinent, especially in Afghanistan, should be noticed by the Chinese. India's geographical influence in Afghanistan is increasing day by day, and its operations in the South Asian subcontinent is also significantly successful. This is not accidental but is rather due to India's successful intervention model and its handling of democracy, institutions, culture, traditions and religion.
In this aspect, China still has a long way to catch up and should not take pride in its present efforts.
According to the data revealed by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in the Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment, the stock of Chinese enterprises investing in Afghanistan as of 2015 was about US$ 420 million, accounting for nearly a quarter of foreign investment in Afghanistan in 2003-2015. The Afghan Foreign Investment Cooperation Country (Region) Guide issued by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that there are currently 10 Chinese-funded enterprises investing in Afghanistan, of which state-owned enterprises made up the majority, having accounting for two-thirds of the total amount. The local operations of Chinese-funded enterprises in Afghanistan are mainly in energy, mineral mining, infrastructure engineering contracting, communication engineering construction and licorice products manufacturing.
This would mean that the Chinese investment in Afghanistan is mostly handled by Chinese state-owned enterprises, which focuses on buying and selling mines, in addition to building infrastructure. These activities make up only US$ 20 million. It is overly optimistic to say all these encompasses "a quarter of Afghan investment" when compared to India's presence in Afghanistan.
Final analysis conclusion:
India's geopolitical influence in Afghanistan is increasing in strength, and its operations in the South Asian subcontinent are also quite successful. All of this is related to its successful intervention model and its handling of democracy, institutions, culture, traditions and religions. This is something that China should learn from.
