It appears that Asia will be the region with the greatest change in the world. After centuries, the condition of the "world’s island" has been recovering. The impact of this assessment is enormous, and Asia’s central role in the world is growing. The main Asian countries and regions like India, China, Japan, the Korean Peninsula and countries in the Pacific Rim will exert larger influence in the “world island”. This is particularly true in Asia itself because of the changes in their ideologies, economics and politics. If there are no unexpected factors such as wars leading to the interruption of this process, the Americas will be in an isolated geopolitical condition compared with the Asian region.
On the Korean peninsula, the Kim Jong-un family and South Korean President Moon Jae-in have forged a subtle partnership of common interest. Moon Jae-in has put all his stakes of his political career behind the unification of the Korean Peninsula at all costs. He has done a lot, and wishes to continue to play a role in the internal politics, though the result might not necessarily be what he wanted, and he might even need to pay a higher price. Although Kim Jong-un has had his hesitations on abandoning nuclear weapons, the abandonment of the nuclear power will cause North Korea to lose its raison d'être and strategic bargaining chip. Yet, if the nuclear weapons are not given up, it would be difficult for North Korea to convince the United States and Japan. But overall, Kim Jong-un’s has also gone quite far in negotiations. Even in a society like North Korea where there is low transparency, everything he has done is considerably astonishing. If he fails, if would be quite doubtful if the North Korean political system could still be stable.
The situation of the unification of the Korean peninsula has a complicated impact on China. While China still has its influence, it has abandoned the possibility of possessing a dominant role. China can work hard to promote the reunification of the Korean Peninsula and move toward a direction that would not be harmful to China. Yet, even this is difficult for China to achieve. The unification of the Korean peninsula means that there is a huge market for reconstruction, which means that it requires huge capital investment. This gives China an opportunity to be passively involved. In addition, the unified Korean Peninsula is certainly a strong strategic competitor for China. Such a prospect should not be ignored by China.
The geo-strategic location of Vietnam and the South Sea has always been very important to China. Together with other countries and regions with vested geostrategic interests, it has limited China’s southward move. As Vietnam’s economic and political reforms are relatively stable and smooth, it is expected that in addition to the possible crisis in the South Sea, Vietnam’s future will be a stabilizing factor for the Western Pacific, instead of being China’s biggest challenge. The actual focus should be the overall strategic situation of the South Sea region, and not any single country around the South Sea.
The Indian subcontinent will be a region that is one of the most influential one in the world. India is a country with a significant importance in the region, which is closely related to its land size and population. It is the largest country in South Asia, accounting for about three-quarters of the land on the Indian Peninsula. India also has the largest population in the region, about three times the combined population of the remaining six countries. Since India adopts a parliamentary democracy and federalism, its political flexibility and compatibility are relatively high. Pakistan is the second largest country on the Indian subcontinent. Its population is second only to India. It has closer ties with China. Both India and Pakistan are countries with nuclear weapons. The Indian economy is one of the fastest growing emerging economies in the world. In fact, according to the IMF, it is the third largest economy, based on global purchasing power parity (PPP). In terms of GDP in U.S. dollar, India is the sixth largest economy in the world and has maintained rapid growth. It is predicted that by 2050 India will become the largest economy after China and the United States, and in terms of economic volume, it is comparable to the U.S. economy. All these make India’s economic outlook rather optimistic.
Based on the overall economic volumes, India’s economic growth has increasingly exceeded that of Pakistan’s, and such a trend should grab China’s attention. This also means that Pakistan is increasingly feeling the growing competitive pressure. Pakistan is likely to seek a more diversified development path, rather than continuously being highly dependent on China.
China's current presence in Pakistan still following the old-school way, which is infrastructure-based investment and development. This has caused the debt burden of the Pakistanis to exceed their ability to repay, and it does not benefit the general masses. The penetration of Chinese private enterprises into Pakistan is quite fragmented as well, who all have their own problems. On the other hand, the development of Gwadar Port has always been another problem. If China changes its strategy in the future, it can consider changing the mode of one-sided aid to focusing on establishing the common market. On this basis, China can improve its system to build order in the market and form an economic alliance. Such a regional common market can encompass Bangladesh and Afghanistan, and can be penetrated into and promoted in Central Asia. This will thereby transform China's strategic influence into real strategic interests and extend its development to the western part of the Silk Road.
Final analysis conclusion:
Asia will be the region with the greatest changes in the world. Grasping the great changes in Asia's future geopolitical landscape would be essential for China's decision-making.
