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Monday, March 11, 2019
Looking for the Better Landscape in U.S.-China Trade Negotiations
ANBOUND

From the United States' standpoint, "the main challenge for the prosperity and security of the U.S. is a long-term strategic competition". One of the main sources of the "challenge" is described as China, according to the National Defense Strategy 2018. It appears that China and the United States find it difficult to find common strategic interests. However, for the moment, trade negotiations between the two countries can be regarded as one of the few "common interests" of the two countries. The reason for this is that the economic and social environmental situation that China and the United States are currently facing urgently needs to reach a trade- negotiation agreement that would provide temporary relief.

At the press conference held in the press conference hall of the Media Center in the morning of March 9, Wang Shouwen, deputy minister of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and deputy international trade negotiator, said that on December 1st last year, the heads of state of China and the United States had reached an important consensus in Argentina. The two sides had agreed to cancel the additional tariffs imposed on each other and stop adding new tariffs. The economic and trade teams of the two countries will fully implement this important consensus reached by the two heads of state. From December 1st last year, during the three-month period, the economic and trade teams of the two sides have held three rounds of high-level negotiations. In these negotiations, substantial progress on some important issues have been reached.

Wang also "disclosed" that in the latest round of negotiations between the two sides in Washington, there was one day when Washington was snowing, and the U.S. government had a shutdown undergoing, but the two teams continued to communicate and negotiate. The Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer ordered takeaway food for lunch. Liu had beef burgers, while Lighthizer had eggplants and chicken. Throughout the consultation process, there were coffee and tea, but the two of them had neither coffee nor tea. Instead they only had plain water. Both worked to seek for common ground and had negotiated over the weekend. The economic and trade teams of both sides communicated day and night in their negotiations.

Judging from the attitude of officials from the Ministry of Commerce, both China and the United States are working hard to achieve success. Wang Shouwen stressed that "the most important thing is that China and the United States can reach a mutually beneficial win-win agreement. Achieving a beneficial agreement is in the interests of the United States, in line with China's interests, and in line with the expectations of the world". It is worth noting that the officials of the Ministry of Commerce repeatedly stressed that the two sides should fully communicate and negotiate. "It is necessary to reach an agreement in accordance with the principles and direction of consultations determined by the two heads of state to cancel all the tariffs imposed on each other so that bilateral trade between China and the United States can return to the normal".

Based on the situation as introduced by the Chinese central bank governor Yi Gang at the "two sessions", the issues discussed by the two countries are not only extensive but also rather in-depth. In his Q&A session, Yi Gang revealed that China and the United States discussed the exchange rate issue during the seventh round of trade negotiations. The exchange rate issue between China and the United States has long been discussed, and this is not the first time such a discussion took place. According to Yi Gang, this time China and the United States had discussed many important issues. For example, in terms of exchange rate, the two sides discussed topics that include: (1) Respecting the autonomy of each side's authorities in determining monetary policy. (2) Both parties should adhere to the principle of the exchange rate system determined by the market. (3) Both parties should abide by the commitments of previous G20 summits, such as not engaging in competitive devaluation and not using exchange rates for competitive purposes. Both sides will also maintain close communication on the foreign exchange market. (4) Both parties should commit to disclosure of data in accordance with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s data transparency standards. Yi Gang made it clear that the two sides have reached consensus on many key and important issues.

In fact, tracking open information revealed that the content of the U.S.-China trade negotiations has greatly exceeded the area regarding trade. It also involves many other issues such as the RMB exchange rate, financial industry, opening and transparency of the market, intellectual property protection, technology transfer, and state-owned enterprise subsidies. The outcome of the package negotiations is also a very complex and systemic one. For China, there are issues of interest transfer in the field of trade, and a large number related to China's market-oriented reforms and further openness. The U.S-China negotiations have also played a role in promoting partial reforms in China.

Undeniably, in the U.S.-China trade negotiations, there are differences and even opposing voices in the two countries. If one looks at this from the standpoint and the logic of interest, many opponents are based on whether their interests are affected. When it comes to public policy issues, there will not be policies that satisfy everyone. Some people will benefit while some will not. The better option is to device a systemic solution that would benefit the most people. It should also be pointed out that the so-called profit and loss of interests depends on the length of time. Long-term interests and short-term interests are definitely different. It also depends on the size of the system. Partial and overall interests are certainly different. When contradictions and conflicts arise, decision makers need to make resolutions based on the interests of the system.

Both China and the United States are economic powers, and the total GDP of the two countries accounts for nearly 40% of the global economy. Many of the bilateral issues of these two major countries have a global impact, and that makes them global issues as well. The mutual relations between the two countries, as the Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out, is that cooperation between the two will mutually benefit each other, while conflicts between the two will cause losses to both. By adhering to the core principles and the bottom line, short-term and partial interest-related adjustments will not harm the system and fundamental interests.

Final analysis conclusion:

As the global and Chinese economy are facing increasing downward pressures, trade negotiations between China and the United States should pursue an agreement to seek common solutions in order to resolve risks and facilitate mutual cooperation.

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