With its accelerating aging rate and huge population, China will become the largest country in the world with the largest elderly population.
Statistics from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics show that as of the end of 2017, the number of elderly people aged 60 and over in China was 241 million, an increase of more than 10 million from the previous year, accounting for 17.3% of the total population. According to relevant predictions, in the years 2022 to 2035, the elderly population in China will increase the most, with an average annual increase of 11.52 million, and the total number of elderly population will increase from 270 million to 420 million; this will be more than the current total elderly population of the United States, which is 330 million, and has reached nearly 60% of the 740 million total population of Europe. The proportion of China's population aged 60 and over will reach 25% in 2030 and 35% in 2050. This poses a serious challenge to the stability and development of China's economy and society in the future.
From the perspective of economic development, the problems of increased pension expenditure, labor shortage, and medical welfare system brought by the aging problem need to be prepared in advance, so that policies can be adjusted in time to prevent economic and social development from experiencing troubles due to aging. In this respect, Japan's current immigration policy changes in response to the aging problem can be said to provide ready-made examples and references for China. China should learn from Japan's immigration policy and adjust its population and immigration policies as soon as possible.
Japan faces the most serious population aging in the world. The population projection of the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications indicates that the number of elderly people over 65 years old in Japan is 34.61 million, accounting for 27.3% of the total population. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Studies of Japan predicts that by 2030, the proportion of the elderly over the age of 65 will reach 31.5%. In recent years, Japan's increasingly aging population and declining births have caused a lot of social problems, especially labor shortage, which is also a factor affecting Japan's economic recovery. According to the Japanese private think tank PERSOL and the Chuo University, Japan will be lacking of 3.84 million laborers by 2020, and will expand to 6.44 million by 2030. The most serious is the service industry, which is estimated to have a shortage of 4 million laborers, followed by the medical and welfare industries, which will be lacking 1.87 million labor.
On the issue of immigration, Japan's attitude has been changing from the strict control in the past to encouraging it. For a long time, there has been a xenophobic attitude in the entire Japanese society. However, under the pressure of the aging population problem, the Japanese government, which has always been extremely conservative on the issue of open immigration, has begun to make up for the current labor shortage in Japan by relaxing the immigration policy and hoping to introduce foreign labor. According to the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, as of October last year, the number of Japanese foreign workers reached a record 1.28 million, being the double of the number of 680,000 in 2012. These figures include part-time workers who hold student visas and trainees under a technical training program.
In June of this year, the Japanese government announced a proposal to relax the entry conditions for foreign workers into the five industries that are in short supply, so as to attract 500,000 migrant workers by 2025. On October 12, the Japanese Ministry of Justice announced the amendments to the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act. The summary suggests that after the various measures taken by the Japanese government, there will still be areas of talent shortage and foreign workers will be accepted. The targeted areas include more than ten industries such as nursing, agriculture, and construction, and will be further screened in the future. Japan has also relaxed access for senior talents, international students, and foreign workers, and has relaxed the access to long-term residence.
Although the proportion of foreigners in Japan is still less than 2% of the total population , with the relaxation of policies, Japan that is commonly perceived to strictly forbid immigrants has "silently" become the fourth largest immigrant country in the world. According to the statistics of the Japanese Ministry of Justice, as of December 2017, the number of foreigners staying in Japan was about 2.56 million. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the top five immigration countries in the world in 2015 are Germany (about 2,016,000), the United States (about 1,051,000), the United Kingdom (about 479,000), and Japan (about 391,000), and South Korea (about 373,000 people). It is clear that Japan's attitude towards immigrants is undergoing an unprecedented transformation.
Japan's policy shift on the issue of aging population should serve as an example for China's serious consideration. As an independent think tank in China, Anbound began calling for China to adjust its population policy and immigration policy as early as 1999, but this view has not been adopted for a long time. What we have to point out is that the aging population of Japan now will be what China would experience in the future. China has many similarities with Japan on population and immigration issues. For example, they are not immigrant countries. On the issue of immigration, China remains conservative, even excludes immigrants; this has even become a part of national culture. However, both countries have very serious problems of aging population, as well as social problems such as low birth rates and high unmarried population. It is precisely because of this that the changes in Japan's immigration policy can be a helpful reference for China's immigration issue.
To solve the population crisis caused by low fertility and aging, China is currently adopting some strategies, such as allowing all parents to have a second child, encouraging birth and delaying retirement. However, China's aging problem in the future may be more serious than that of Japan. Due to China's large population base, the absolute number of labor gaps in the future will be staggering, and now there is already a shortage of labor in the coastal areas. According to relevant UN forecasts, China's working-age population will fall from 930 million to 850 million in 2030. Under the premise of delaying retirement age to 65, China needs to introduce an additional 270 million labor to maintain the old-age dependency ratio at 2015. It is roughly equivalent to 27% of the total working population. If the retirement age is still at the current 60, then 330 million workers will need to be introduced. Anbound stresses that China needs to introduce a large number of labors from outside, which should not be restricted by China's cultural customs, traditional concepts and policy inertia.
From the experience of Japan, China may need to follow a similar path to Japan in terms of solving the crisis of aging population, which is careful planned control immigration in low-key to resolve the labor shortage. Because China's aging population is huge, and happens before the country achieves developed country status, it will face a more serious population aging problem than Japan. Therefore, China needs to formulate a series of forward-looking policies to alleviate the issue. Fertility and immigration policy adjustments are complex and require careful considerations; China needs to think about population and immigration policy from a systematic perspective in the advent of the super ageing society.
Final analysis conclusion:
Population issues are an important factor affecting long-term economic growth. The increase in both demand and investment requires stable and efficient labor market support. The rapid advent of China's super aging population has made the country face labor shortage that is several times stronger than that of Japan. The adjustment of Japanese immigration policy not only provides China with a realistic public case, but also should prompt China to look at and reflect on immigration policy reform with an open vision.
