As a regional concept, Northeast Asia encompasses China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and Mongolia. Although the United States is not geographically a country in Northeast Asia, it has an important military presence in Japan and South Korea, and it is a substantial force in the West Pacific region; therefore it is also a significant power in Northeast Asia.

Although the countries of Northeast Asia are geographically adjacent, they belong to different geopolitical groups. Japan, South Korea, and the United States are military and political allies, while North Korea is an opposition to this. China and Russia are two non-aligned regional major powers, and Mongolia is a very marginal and weak independent force. For a long time, Northeast Asia has been in a state of division and opposition. In recent years, the main problem centers around the North Korean nuclear issue; the interests of all parties are difficult to be consolidated, making Northeast Asia stuck in something of a Gordian knot.

However, with the changes in the international and regional situation, there is a possibility of a change in the pattern of Northeast Asia. The 4th Eastern Economic Forum, held at Vladivostok in Russia from September 11 to 13, is a window showing the improvement of the Northeast Asian situation. It has been reported that delegations from more than 60 countries participated in the forum this year, which include 370 Russian companies and 360 foreign company leaders. Among the attendees, there are Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon and Mongolian President Khaltmaagiin Battulga.

There was also a small incident in this forum. When Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delivered a speech at the plenary session of the forum, he urged Putin to stand with him to sign the Japan-Russia peace treaty. “Let us walk together mindful of the questions, ‘If we don’t do it now, then when?’ And ‘if we don’t do it, then who will?’”, Abe said. He also said the living generation has the responsibility to “completely remove the post-war scenery” from the region. To this, Putin responded, “An idea has just come into my head”, “let’s conclude a peace treaty before the end of this year, without any preconditions.” However, if the peace agreement is signed without preconditions, it means that Japan is prepared to abandon its sovereignty requirements for the four northern islands, but it is clear that the climate for such situation is absent in Japan. The Japanese Foreign Ministry responded on the same day that Tokyo would continue negotiations with the Russian side on the issue of peace agreements after the settlement of the disputed territories has been resolved.

Although the signing of the peace treaty between Japan and Russia is difficult to make substantial progress, under the current global situation, the pattern of Northeast Asia has been loosened compared with the past, and there is a complete possibility of improvement. Anbound’s senior researcher He Jun pointed out that he believes that there are certain opportunities for the current situation in Northeast Asia.

First of all, the United States has started a wave of global trade disputes, which has impacted the long-established globalization pattern and broke the balance of the world. Although this is a chaotic situation concerning trade, it dilutes the geopolitical confrontation pattern of the past. Anbound has analyzed in the past that what lies behind the trade war is actually the competition for market space. Now that the United States does not want to take the lead, it will continue to “retreat” and regain market space and economic interests. The deconstruction or weakening of the traditional multilateral system actually provides space and necessity for the establishment of regional multilateral organizations.

Second, the easing of the tension on the North Korean nuclear issue has improved the external environment of the situation in Northeast Asia. In the past, the main unsolvable problem of the Northeast Asian issue was the North Korean nuclear issue. Although the North Korean nuclear issue has not been resolved, after the Donald Trump-Kim Jong-Un meeting, and that the effort to denuclearize North Korean has yet to make substantial progress, with the UN sanctions against North Korea still exist, the tension in Northeast Asia has been significantly eased, and for this the world needs to thank Trump.

Third, Japan’s attitude change is very subtle and important for the Northeast Asian region. If the future of Northeast Asia changes, it will be mainly reflected in regional economic cooperation. As an economic power in the region, Japan’s participation is indispensable. Among them, the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Zone will be an important mechanism. If the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Zone is successfully established in the context of global trade disputes, it is undoubtedly a major positive force for economic cooperation in Northeast Asia. Currently, relations between Japan and China are normalized, and the leaders of the two countries will exchange visits this year and next year, which will help the changes in Northeast Asia.

Fourth, China must actively promote situational changes in Northeast Asia. If the situation in Northeast Asia improves, it will also improve the development environment in Northeast China. The revitalization of Northeast China has been weak for a long time; apart from the internal problems in China, particularly the Northeastern part, this is also related to the tension in Northeast Asia, especially the North Korean nuclear issue, which has almost locked the external space for the development of Northeast China. If the situation gradually improves, under the UN sanctions framework, properly attracting North Korea to participate in Northeast Asia cooperation will have a positive impact on China.

Final Analysis Conclusion:

Under the context of global trade disputes, the situation of globalization has been deconstructed and weakened, providing space and necessity for regional multilateral cooperation, which also opens up possibilities for the improvement of the pattern in Northeast Asia.