This summer, the northern hemisphere has experienced extremely unusual high temperatures. From East Asia to Europe, from the equator to the Arctic, the entire northern hemisphere seems to be swept by high temperatures and heat waves. In China, the Central Meteorological Observatory (CMO) has issued a yellow warning of high temperature for 21 days in succession in North China and Northeast China. South Korea, Japan and other places have set records for the highest temperature since meteorological observation, and the death toll from heat stroke is also rising. Many parts of Europe are experiencing a double whammy of heat and drought. The satellite real pictures show that the landform is yellow, the forest fires spread more and more, the melting of ice and snow has led to the change of mountain height, and the temperature in some parts of the Arctic Circle is as high as more than 30 degrees centigrade... There are signs that this summer has been exceptionally hot, with temperatures reaching their highest levels in a century in many places.
Abnormal high temperatures and heavy rains have caused considerable damage in the northern hemisphere. In Japan, which is in East Asia, more than 20 thousand people were hospitalized in a week with hot weather, 94 of them dead, after the heavy rain and flood caused hundreds of deaths. In southern Europe, Greece, the worst mountain fire in more than ten years in July 23rd, the suburb of the capital, Athens, was caught in a sea of fire, at least 74 people were killed, more than 187 were injured, and some of the dead were trapped in cars and indoors. German farmers estimate that this year's crop harvest will be 20% less than normal. In California, North America, because of the high temperature and drought, there are many fires. The largest fire area of "Mendocino Double Mountain Fire" has reached 254000 acres (about 100 thousand hectares). It will be the largest fire in California's history. By August 5th, 15000 buildings were threatened by fire and 68 houses were burned down. There are 12 other buildings damaged.
This year's unusually high heat wave "barbecued" the entire northern hemisphere, what's behind it? In addition to complex meteorological factors such as atmospheric circulation, the consensus is that global warming is the backdrop of extreme high temperature weather events. The Washington Post analyses, in general, as the concentration of greenhouse gases emitted by human activities continues to increase, global warming, these abnormal "heat milestones" are all expected. Scientists predict that the weather will get hotter and hotter, and today's record will one day become normal. Not only is it hot, but global warming also tends to lead to extreme weather conditions --- storms and hurricanes are more intense and droughts last longer.
The latest research in the National Climate Center of China shows that the average temperature and extreme temperature in China have increased significantly since 1951, and the extreme high temperature shows the characteristics of stronger strength, more frequent occurrence and longer duration. The occurrence probability of extreme high temperature events in summer in China will be greatly increased in the future. This prediction has also been supported by other research. A recent Massachusetts Institute of Technology study in the science journal website "natural communications" warned that China's North China Plain is mostly affected by climate change. The most populous agricultural zone in China may be too hot until 2100 or before, and people who work outside the household will have a life threat in a few hours, because North China is a threat. High temperatures may often occur at 35 degrees or more.
Global warming is believed to be pushing for stronger calls to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and global climate governance. The Guardian says extreme heat waves this summer have finally burst the climate scepticism bubble. It also warns that this is only the beginning, as we are now experiencing a historic shift in the threat of climate change from predictions to actual perceptions.
Global warming is only a result, not the ultimate cause. In the point of ANBOUND research team, an important reason for this summer's abnormal high temperature is that the earth's bearing capacity has reached its limit, and it is difficult to afford more people and to meet the needs of human beings. In terms of science and logic, the impact of human activity on global climate change in a meaningful time scale for human beings will exceed the long-term natural changes of the earth's climate, such as the glacial and inter-glacial periods. Generally speaking, climate change in geological age is too long and meaningless for human beings, and human activities have a significant impact on short-term climate change.
The bearing capacity of the earth is essentially the relationship between human and nature. On October 31st, 2011, the Earth's "7 billion baby" was born in Manila, Philippines, and the Earth has entered the "post-7 billion population" era. According to World Population Clock, the world's population is estimated to be 7.6 billion by December 2017. Such a large population poses a serious challenge to the earth's carrying capacity.
How many people can the earth be able to feed? As early as 1679, the Dutch naturalist and microbiologist Leeuwenhoek estimated that the largest carrying capacity of the earth was 13.4 billion people based on the population density of the Netherlands. The study by Harvard social scientist Edward Wilson suggests that the earth's maximum carrying capacity is about 9 to 10 billion people. The basis for his estimation is that if all grain is used to feed humans, not cattle, all people are willing to be vegetarians, and the existing 1 billion 400 million hectares of cultivated land can feed 10 billion people. But in fact, the 1.4 billion hectares of arable land now support only 2.5 billion people, because a considerable number of people are reluctant to eat only vegetarian food. According to United Nations projections, the world population will grow to 10 billion or more by the end of the 21st century.
Since the Industrial Revolution, the global population has been increasing. Around 1 billion in 1800, about 2 billion in 1927 and 4 billion in 1974. In June 2017, statistics released by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations showed that about 83 million people were added annually worldwide. The global population will reach 8 billion by 2023, and, unless unforeseen circumstances arise, it is expected to reach 9.8 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. The United Nations report also predicts that from now to 2050, half of the world's population growth will be concentrated in 9 countries - India, Nigeria, Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Uganda and Indonesia. India is expected to overtake China in seven years, and Nigeria is expected to overtake the United States as the third most populous country in the world by 2050.
The increasing population poses a constant challenge to the carrying capacity of the earth. Despite the progress of technology, human beings can produce food to feed more people (such as industrial agricultural production, innovation in genetic technology, etc.), but human survival is far more than "hungry". People need transportation, housing, public services, medical care, and entertainment. People need to consume food, space and energy. Poor, primitive life is low consumption, but the eternal motive of people's pursuit of prosperity increases the demand for material consumption and energy consumption on the whole. The development of poor countries and worldwide migration (including refugees) have led to an overall increase in the world's material and energy consumption. This process is the process of irreversible entropy increase in human development. If human beings do not self-restrain the production of population and the growth of population is unrestricted, the result will be the collapse of the "human-nature" system of the earth.
Final Analysis Conclusion:
This year, the global abnormal high temperature is only a manifestation, which shows that the bearing capacity of the earth system is close to the limit. With the increasing population, the contradiction between the earth's bearing capacity and human development will be further highlighted in the future.
