2018 marks the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up. The usual practice is that China needs to commemorate this special historical moment, and at the same time seek the right path for the future development of China. However, as we are at the end of August, there seems to be no clear statement on the domestic commemoration of the anniversary, neither can any hints be seen.
Is this because the current central government has no time to handle such matter, or is the continuing reform and opening up controversial? Judging from the many speeches of the central leaders this year, it seems to be doubtless that China would continue the reform and opening up; this is still the basic "national policy" that China must adhere to in its future development. In other words, the central decision-making level should be extremely clear about the general direction of persisting in reform and opening up. What may need to be further strengthened in the future is the political determination to deepen reform and opening up, and how to manage and establish future reform priorities.
In fact, in the communique of the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee, the general direction of reform and opening up was already established, and the basic reform ideas for market-oriented resource allocation had been put forward, and more than 300 specific reform tasks were proposed. However, over the past five years or so, the number anti-corruption task was prioritized and could not be abandoned; otherwise it would bring even greater problems. To a certain extent, the pace of reform and advancement has somewhat slowed down. Now, the overall situation of anti-corruption has been fixed. The 19th National Congress has further reconstructed the power structure. It should be said that political preparations have been prepared to strengthen the next step of the reforms.
It appears to us that the Chinese society has basically reached a consensus on continuing reform and opening up, but how should the reforms be promoted? What are the key directions and basic principles for deepening the reforms? For such issues, China would need to be prudent and pragmatic. On the issue of China's deepening reform, Abound's senior researcher He Jun expressed his personal views:
First of all, in China there should still be boundaries for the reforms; this should be probes on the reforms under the core system. Some have proposed major reforms of the current systems, from the economic system to the political system. Yet, to us such idea of reform is too idealistic and does not conform to the reality of China. It should be known that system reform is not an institutional revolution. Instead, the process of reform is actually the process of seeking the greatest common denominator among the core groups and among many interest groups. Recognizing the core system is the premise for promoting reforms in China.
Secondly, China's future reform and opening up must stick to several major principles: first, marketization; second, opening up to the outside; third, rule of law. We believe that these three aspects are not only the direction of deepening reform, but also the main area for promoting reform, and they are the goal to be achieved by reform as well.
The emphasis on marketization means that China must persist in engaging in the market economy. Currently "socialism with Chinese characteristics" has entered a new era. In this new era, China will develop "socialist market economy," and its focus will still be on the "market economy". Socialism is the core system and the market economy is the goal. "China model" would only be considered as successful if China successfully develops the "socialist market economy". China's future reforms should be market-oriented reforms.
The emphasis of opening up to the outside means that China still has to adhere to opening up in the future, which also means that China's future reform and development must be in an open system. In the past 40 years, the success of China's reform and development has come from opening to the outside world; this is especially after joining the WTO, China was brought into a higher-level open economic system, and China was since deeply involved in the process of globalization. In the 17 year of China's accession to the WTO, the country's economy has grown by more than 700%. In the future, China's development still depends on opening up to the outside world. In particular, China is now facing an intensified trade friction with the United States. To overcome this difficult time, China must adhere to opening up. If China closes its doors in the future, the country's prospects will be bleak.
The emphasis on the rule of law is to build national governance based on the legal system. The present world seems to have entered an era in which a strong leader prevails; state governance has shown more characteristics of the leaders. However, historically speaking, especially since the end of World War II, for a country to maintain long-term stability the rule of law must become the national system. For China, after completing the anti-corruption task, if the previous anti-corruption work results are to be consolidated systematically, administrative management must be replaced with the rule of law governance.
Final Analysis Conclusion:
In this new historic stage, under the long-term shadow of U.S.-China trade friction, what China needs most is to adhere to market-oriented reforms, opening up to the outside world, and the rule of law. This also means that China has to return to the general direction of reform.
