Seven months have passed since 2018. The national and local economic situation has been announced in the first half of the year, and the intensified trade friction between China and the United States has also begun. In the face of the new situation, the State Council has begun to take a relaxed policy. It is believed that the central government's major policies will be announced soon so that the people of the country and the domestic market can better grasp the changes in the situation and policies. In addition to the economic cycle, the Chinese market will also face a policy cycle. Since the driving force of the Chinese economy comes from the government to a considerable extent, economic fluctuations will have more Chinese characteristics. At this time, a re-review of the historical trajectory of the Chinese economy may have a reference for future decisions.

In his departure speech on January 27, 2003, the former Premier Zhu Rongji comprehensively analyzed the characteristics of the Chinese economy and pointed out the issue that the Chinese economy needs to be vigilant. This speech was later included in the "Famous Five Years" as the "Zhu Rongji on the Record: the Road to Reform ". It is worth noting that Zhu Rongji talked about several issues worthy of attention in the Chinese economy. The following points are summarized.

Firstly, the economy is overheated. Zhu Rongji said, "the current government is about to expire. I want to remind those comrades who have stayed to continue to work. What I am most worried about now is that the economy is overheated and I have been worried about it for a year. Except for the leadership, I will not talk about this issue publicly. I just worry too much about the economy. There are a lot of signs now, and if you don't pay attention, the economic situation will be out of control. After more than 50 years of work in the economy, I can deeply understand this kind of 'syndrome' in China. The days are just a little bit better, the exaggerated style, blind complacency, inexplicable tossing, ignorant decision-making will appear."

Secondly, real estate overheating and urbanization have been developed rapidly. Zhu Rongji said, "I have talked about overheating of real estate. Most of the comrades are still not aware of the seriousness of this problem. They always come first with the phrase 'it is very good overall' and then just say a little bit of the problem. Absolutely not the case! This kind of overheating is feasible. In 1993, the overheating of real estate caused the current Hainan Island to be 'scarred and bruised'. I am very worried about 'urbanization'. Now 'urbanization' has been linked to real estate, depriving farmers of land at very cheap prices, allowing foreigners or real estate developers to move in, and not being able to house farmers well. This is very dangerous. This is totally inconsistent with the central policy spirit. We have discussed it many times and afraid of this thing. The Central Policy Research Office has a briefing, 'Building Sports, Labor and Injury'. I suggest that you take a look. The briefing is about the rural areas in Luoyang, Henan Province. Since 2001, 'making towns' has been blooming all over the country for two years. There is no unified planning, and there is no source of funds. Anyway, it is to engage in real estate and enclaves. What would happen if the plan has no money? Put a single-story house on the side of the street to build a wall, creating a house that looks like two or three stories. We have already done this in the Past, it is not their inventions, they are fake! I don't know where their money comes from. How can the township government and the county government have this money? Or is it the money of the Bank or it is the misappropriation of education funds."

Thirdly, the risk of overheating the bank. Overheated economy and overheated real estate will bring risks to banks. Zhu Rongji said that our bank comrades must be aware of this because all of this money comes from banks. I once again advised the comrades of the bank: You may have been promoted in the past two years. You may not be working in the bank anymore, but don't think that there is a problem that can be solved by later people. The financial system reform of this administration has not yet been completed, and a sound mechanism has not yet been established; but before the establishment of this mechanism, our Communists have been engaged in economics for decades, or should they be responsible. Don't leave this baggage to future generations and develop blindly. In 1993, this kind of thing happened in big cities, such as Hainan Province and Beihai City. If it is to bloom in the future, it will all 'create a town' and form a trend. How can it be done! Our bank comrades must be vigilant. You always said that under the good situation, non-performing loans are falling, I just don't believe it.

Fourthly, the theme park is prevalent. There is no such thing in foreign countries. There are two Disney parks in the United States, one in France, and one in Japan. Nowadays, theme parks are popular in many places in China. Foreigners do not pay for themselves. We sell the land cheaply to others, which destroys the country's land resources and uses our money. This is not worth the loss. Nowadays, farmers in many places cannot even solve the problem of food and clothing, let alone the theme park. Will anyone go to see it? The Disney Park in Shanghai was not built, so a theme park was built. Tianjin wants to build a theme park. Now Beijing wants to build a theme park, too. The two theme parks are too close. The two Disney parks in the United States are still far apart, one in Los Angeles and the other in Florida. What are we doing to build the park so close? I firmly advocated tightening policies. Recently, the State Council issued a notice that construction fees are not allowed to be built in parks above the limit, but must be approved by the State Council. Probably not many people know that Sichuan Dinosaur Park, which was built by the forestry system, covers an area of nine square kilometers and is working with a bank in Australia just to build a five-star hotel.

Fifthly, the development of the automobile industry cannot be unorganized and planned. Last year (Note: refers to the 2002) car price cut, a large number of car imports caused this situation, banks also gave loans. I think that cars are not the direction of our development. Don't form a fanaticism. Young people are proud of having their own cars. We have already said that China is not such a country. I have not changed this view until now. It should be based on the development of public transportation. Now Beijing traffic congestion is a mess, how to open the Olympic Games in 2008! The level of management of various infrastructure, transportation facilities, and management facilities is not suitable. The number of cars in Shanghai is now half that of Beijing, but there are traffic jams everywhere. How to open the World Expo in 2010! There is also a parking space, which is also a big problem. The policy of developing public transportation cannot be shaken at all. Not so much oil! What I want to say to the comrades is that 70 million tons of crude oil was imported last year. This does not include the smuggling of refined oil. Some provinces are still quite smuggled. Now I don't know how much oil is imported. We only produced 160 million tons of ourselves. And consumption has reached 260 million tons, can this be maintained? Fortunately, we can import foreign exchange now, what should we do in the future? Without oil, how can we develop a car like this? Public transportation has always been a weakness of ours and has not developed well. ... It is necessary to develop the bus and long-distance bus manufacturing industry and eliminate those agricultural vehicles and non-standardized cars. It is not to say that comrades should not develop cars, but not to set the goal so high, and comrades cannot develop cars without any plans. Once a car is developed, it needs a series of raw materials to keep up with it. If the car is not developed well in the future, other related industries will not work. Nothing can be done without organization and planning.

Zhu Rongji stressed, "I hope that comrades who remain in their posts must pay attention not to be overwhelmed by the good situation. ... Comrades can never blindly be optimistic, exaggerated, and toss. We have had such a lesson in history, and the development of the situation is cyclical. We can't repeat the same mistakes. As long as there is nothing wrong with this issue, other issues will be easier to handle, and there will be no national and unmanageable problems. The overheating of the economy must be strictly controlled, and the State Council must be stricter."

It should be pointed out that the view of Premier Zhu Rongji's speech should consider the historical background. At that time, China just joined the WTO. In 2002, China's GDP just jumped to the level of 10 trillion Yuan, an increase of 8%. Although the economy at that time was less than one-eighth of the current Chinese economy, the habitual overheating of the Chinese economy has always existed. If we catch up with the upward cycle, coupled with the domestic promotion from the government to the bank to the market, the Chinese economy is easy to embark on the road of overheating. In fact, the essence of economic overheating is speed. As a steady-state faction in China, ANBOUND has repeatedly stated "the core issue of China is the speed issue." Chan Kung, the chief researcher of ANBOUND, pointed out in 2013 that the speed of control itself was a reform. If macroeconomic regulation could control the growth rate of economic growth at around 7%, it was a successful reform. China's speed problem is manifested in many aspects of the economy - macroeconomics, financial markets, urbanization, real estate development, industrial investment, etc. As long as the speed is fast, the result is often overheated. After experiencing the development cycle and feeling the difficulties of economic transformation, many local officials have expressed their feelings: "The core issues of China's development indeed speed issues."

Final Analysis Conclusion:

In the history of China, the economy was overheated, real estate was overheated, and urbanization was too fast. The core is speed. Controlling the steady development of speed is sustainable development. In this regard, rereading Premier Zhu Rongji's fear of overheating 15 years ago is a great reference for China's current economic decision-making.