China is now facing complicated international situation, but just like the basic logic of everything else in the world, all these do not happen overnight; rather they have beginning, process; its confrontation, competition, direction and the gradually emerging objective results are based on fundamental strategic logic. China does not lack real strategic think tanks and high-value strategic research institutions; their research and vision have had many opportunities and time for China to evade strategic risks before they happen and achieve sustainable development.
The timeline published by Anbound shows forecast, judgments and warnings about trade war.
On September 26, 2004, the "New Silk Road" was of strategic significance to China. After conducting researches in Xinjiang, Anbound's chief researcher Chan Kung proposed the "New Silk Road" strategy and believed that the strategic development of West China requires social stability and economic development. Therefore, the "New Silk Road Strategy" can create and provide new strategic opportunities.
The research articles on March 21, 2007 and April 23, 2012, "China's New Energy Vehicles' "Curve Overtaking" Difficult to Achieve", "Several Issues China's "Big Aircraft" Project Needs to Pay Attention". Chan Kung questioned the development strategy of large aircraft and new energy vehicles, and believed that focus should be given to the geopolitical or industrial risk of this development strategy.
On July 14, 2010, in "Transition to Consumer Society: What Does China Lack the Most?" Chan Kung and He Jun pointed out the importance of consumption for China's future economic growth. Chan Kung has repeatedly warned that the space economy will be the key to determining global status and China's position in the future.
On December 2, 2012, in "Chan Kung on Jack Ma and the Future of E-commerce", Chan Kung warned that the high cost and the e-commerce economy have produced far-reaching and serious impacts on the Chinese economy and the development of Chinese cities, paralyzing the cities and eroding the foundation of the real economy.
On November 17, 2013, in "Moderates vs. Radicals", on the basis of studying China's macroeconomic performance, Chan Kung repeatedly warned that all the problems China face are due speed.
On July 21, 2013, in "Chan Kung on Elite Supersessions" Chan Kung warned that the wave of conservatism would sweep the world. The fundamental structural changes are taking place in American society, which will cause changes and huge impacts in the world.
On November 20, 2013, "Can Reform Dividend Guarantee the Chinese Economy No Less than 7% in 20 Years?" and on January 4, 2014, "Constructive 'Year of Revolution'" were published. In the midst of the fever for development in the society, in order to achieve a balanced development of society, Chan Kung proposed a pyramid-shaped model of China's development, arguing that China will need another 30 years to reduce its development target by 1% every 10 years until the economic growth rate reaches 5%; this is a more stable development path.
On June 30, 2014, in "China's Formation of 'Industry 4.0' Requires Combination of Internal and External Cooperation", Chan Kung stated that the vision of the infrastructure created by Industry 4.0 and the changes it brings are not the same as the "Made in China Made". The difference in understanding may lead to risks.
On October 7, 2014, in the "West China's Participation in the Belt and Road Initiative Requires New Thinking" and "3,000 Years of Land and Maritime Power" (book review of Peter Frankopan's work), Chan Kung predicted that due the differences in New Silk Road and the land rights theory, the Belt & Road Initiative would trigger strong reaction from the entire Western world; this is the inevitable result based on the maritime rights theory.
On December 24, 2014, in "Strong Recovery of the U.S. Economy Impacts Global Market", Chan Kung believes that the U.S. economy is in the advantageous position. From the trend perspective, the U.S. dollar will remain strong for a long time, the world capital will flow into the U.S., and emerging market countries will face the pressure of financial crisis.
In 2015, Chan Kung's book "Urbanization" provides an initial study on the mechanism of the crisis. He believes that urbanization and the climax of infrastructure construction will lead to excessive production and the surge of currency, creating large amounts of inventory and debt, which in turn will cause economic crisis.
On May 24, 2016, in "Global Market Ushers Appreciation of USD Once Again", Chan Kung pointed out that the U.S. economy is in the process of a strong recovery; underestimating this will lead to serious judgment errors.
On September 28, 2016, in "Anbound's New Silk Road Research and Pakistan Study Trip", Chan Kung proposed the New Silk Road Common Market Plan after conducting research in Pakistan. He pointed out that sharing development dividends with developing countries, establishing a common market, expanding market space are valuable strategic options for the world and for China, and the errors of Belt & Road Initiative "project diplomacy" should be corrected.
On December 11, 2016, in "Monetary Policy and Financial Environment in 2017", Chan Kung warned that the exchange rate is decisive for the future of Chinese economy, the growth and decline of the Chinese economy depends on it.
On December 20, 2016, Chan Kung warned in the Strategic Observation Report that based on internal and external factors, the RMB exchange rate might depreciate to 7 to 7.5 in the next one to two years. Although China's foreign exchange reserves are close to US$4 trillion at most, they are still insufficient to cope with the complicated situation.
On March 26, 2017, Chan Kung warned in the article "China's Infrastructure Investment Disaster" that large-scale investment in infrastructure will lead to rapid expansion of the debt base, which may result in the loss of control of the debt and the instability of the RMB exchange rate. .
On December 17, 2017, the article "Anbound Suggests China to Adopt Unprecedented Stimulus Measures of More than RMB 30 Trillion" stated that due to the structural problems, the economic situation will be difficult to achieve. To determine the future trend, the final policy can only adopt the capital discharge measures.
On March 1, 2018, in the article "Three Types of War", Chan Kung directly warned that China is facing trade war and must make early policy preparations.
On March 18, 2018, in "Stepping Global Amalgamation", it is stated that under the complicated social background, Chan Kung put forward the concept of "global amalgamation" and believed that China's reform and opening-up must be continued and China should actively integrate itself to the world.
On April 10, 2018, in "Basic Evaluation of the U.S. 2018 National Defense Strategy", Anbound thoroughly analyzed the "Mattis Report", and pointed out that the U.S. policy toward China has undergone epoch-making fundamental changes. Based on its understanding on the "Belt & Road" strategy and "Made in China 2025", the United States changed from attempting to make China its ally to considering China as its competitor.
On June 27, 2018, in "China should Develop a Conglomerate Economy to Stabilize its economy", through integrating the research on the "consortium economy" in previous years, Chan Kung put forward the idea of "conglomerate economy" and suggested that China should adopt this approach in the future. The path of "conglomerate economy" stated concerning the issue of organizational construction of private enterprises, on the basis of strengthening the leadership of CCP and the Chinese government on private enterprises, the scale of private enterprises should be expanded, and the suggest and resources of private enterprises should beenhanced, while the market expansion will in turn increase the vitality of the national economy.
In July 2018, Chan Kung and Anbound launched the "post-crisis era" study, believing that cost-related crisis is a kind of negative reaction, and various development obstacles and problems are caused by high capital and cost. Basically, no solution for this issue can be done in the field of public policy; it can only be resolved through the form of crisis.
The result of the trade war will appear in various aspects such as in the exchange rate, capital, stock market, trade, enterprise competition, and economic growth. However, everything has antecedents, especially trade wars, which are large-scale knowledge system activities across several fields. There are think tanks and information analysis experts who insist on long-term follow-up research to obtain objective forecasts and results. Resolving issues one by one is no longer workable for major powers. Peter Navarro joined the Trump administration from the time he produced the book Death by China in 2011 and spent more than 6 years studying China-U.S. trade relations. What Navarro has done are also being done by some people in China. From the evolution of the timeline, the whole world can clearly see that Anbound is doing this as well.
Think tanks are always at the backstage; but they do exist and play important, progressive role.
