Today's world is more geopolitically fragmented than ever. The clear distinction between the East and West in the past has seen major changes after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now, because of the self-fragmentation of the West, other major changes have made their appearance. The waves of anti-globalization continue to emerge, and under the Trump administration, the United States is retreating from international affairs. The traditional alliance between the European Union and the United States has seen structural rift, while Brexit has further exacerbated Europe's fragmentation.
Such fragmentation of the world has caused major upheaval in the geopolitical landscape, and it has also added more options and possibilities to the rising China. As an independent think-tank, Anbound believes that changes in the international situation as a whole are beneficial to China, allowing China to gain greater say in the global economy and other major issues, and to have more room for development. A specific strategy is that China should give play to its economic advantages, promote the building of a common market, and use this as a vehicle to expand and change the geopolitical landscape around China. It should be pointed out that the so-called common market refers not only to the economy, but also includes common market space, as well as common order, common laws, and a common tactical system.
The change in Myanmar is a good example. Myanmar showed great interest towards the West from 2011 to 2015, and this shocked China. The Chinese government began to examine how it "loses" Myanmar, and now with the U.S. President Donald Trump implementing the "isolationist" America First policy; China could seize the opportunity to regain the lost influence in Myanmar. According to the article "Getting No Love from the West, Myanmar Turns to the Warm Embrace of China" published in Asia Times, a Hong Kong-based English-language news website, the relationship between the United States and Myanmar has deteriorated for quite some time. The earlier gradual improvement of the relationship between the two countries has been seen as the success of the Obama administration's foreign policy, and it was "a tiny sliver of the U.S.' elusive "Pivot to Asia", yet now it has lost its luster". At the same time, China is happy to step in and fill the gap.
Analysts said that Aung San Suu Kyi has not received enough "love" from western democracies; therefore she now cautiously embraces closer ties with China. An editorial of a Myanmar-based news website stated that, in the unpredictable challenge of the democratic transition, the influence of the West on Myanmar is weakening, and Beijing has become more powerful. Recently, China and Myanmar have had frequent contacts. Aung San Suu Kyi met Chinese leaders at a summit in Beijing in mid-May 2017; earlier the then President of Myanmar U Htin Kyaw had a six-day state visit to China. When Aung San Suu Kyi visited China, she reached an agreement with China to create an economic cooperation zone, which is part of China's Belt & Road Initiative aimed at connecting Asia and Europe.
Derek Mitchell, a former special envoy of Obama, warned that the United States may experience more serious strategic setbacks. If Myanmar's transitional process cannot be stabilized, it will give the message to the authoritarian governments in the region that "democracy will not work in Asia"; it is not surprising that U.S. officials are worried. As early as 2014, Anbound has proposed that China should comprehensively adjust the coordinate system of China-Myanmar relations and take the initiative to welcome the arrival of a "normalized Myanmar". At the same time, Anbound also proposed that Myanmar's economic development will not be organized by the "political dividends" of the West. Myanmar, like any open and less developed country, will have to face the issue of how to develop the economy and raise the people's income level. In terms of economy and market in Myanmar, what the West can do within the short period of time is rather limited, which is far from their "political dividends". The latest changes in the development of Myanmar have confirmed what we foresaw.
With the fragmentation of what used to be conventional geopolitical landscape, China has the potential to utilize economic influence to expand and adjust the surrounding geopolitical structure. We believe that there are two geopolitical focal points surrounding China; the first is concerning the Korean peninsula; the North Korean nuclear issue and the colder relations between China and South Korea have complicated the situation on the Korean Peninsula, then the issue about Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea has also made China directly face the strategic interests of the United States. The second is India. As China's giant neighbor, India is rapidly emerging and hopes to exert greater influence in the Indian Ocean and Asia Pacific. India's competitive rise will inevitably have an impact on China. In the future, both countries will have extremely subtle relations in the economic, political, and military affairs.
On the future of China's expansion of international development space, during the researches conducted on New Silk Road, Anbound's scholars have proposed "common market" as the solution. In other words, this is for China and its neighboring countries to jointly establish a "common market" and seek for mutually beneficial development. This strategy has not only been fulfilled in the development of China-Myanmar relations, it can also be applied to the development and cooperation between China and different Central Asian and Southeast Asian countries.
Final Analysis Conclusion:
In this era where the old geopolitical structure is gradually fragmented, China should make greater use of its economic influence to build the "common market" development strategy and seek greater development space and to establish greater influence.
