The Group of Seven (G7) summit was held in Canada from June 8 to June 9. With the escalation of global trade frictions and the United States imposing tariff on its allies, this summit was considered to be possibly the most fragmented G7 leaders meeting in the history. To facilitate the G7 summit and to reach a certain agreement with the United States, Germany, the EU's largest economy, the host Canada, and Japan, did a lot of careful preparatory works in advance to try to convince Trump to return to the multilateral system. Everyone is aware that this G7 summit might be the last opportunity for negotiation before the United States launches the trade war.

However, due to the huge differences in their positions, the leaders of various countries have begun to attack each other on social platforms and major media before the start of the summit. On June 7, French President Emmanuel Macron chided President Donald Trump and twitted that "the American President may not mind being isolated, but neither do we mind signing a 6 country agreement if need be. Because these 6 countries represent trade norms, they represent an economic market which has the weight of history behind it and which is now a true international force".

Trump responded on Twitter with not just one, but several tweets, "Please tell Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron that they are charging the U.S. massive tariffs and create non-monetary barriers. The EU trade surplus with the U.S. is $151 Billion, and Canada keeps our farmers and others out. Look forward to seeing them tomorrow", "Prime Minister Trudeau is being so indignant, bringing up the relationship that the U.S. and Canada had over the many years and all sorts of other things...but he doesn't bring up the fact that they charge us up to 300% on dairy — hurting our Farmers, killing our Agriculture!", "Why isn't the European Union and Canada informing the public that for years they have used massive Trade Tariffs and non-monetary Trade Barriers against the U.S. Totally unfair to our farmers, workers & companies. Take down your tariffs & barriers or we will more than match you!"

At the G7 summit, Trump and other countries displayed serious differences on trade issues; with the U.S. being "sieged" by the other six countries. The viral G7 photo posted by Angela Merkel showing her leading European leaders to "interrogate" Trump captures the tensed relations between the U.S. with the other six countries over trade issues. However, Trump was not moved in the face of the "siege"; he did not say that the United States would not support the G7 communiqué. As officials from various countries negotiated overnight, the United States seemed to have agreed to the contents of the communiqué. Reuters previously disclosed the text of the G7 communiqué that the leaders of the seven countries need to agree on "free, fair, and mutually beneficial trade" and that it is very important to counter protectionism. This attitude of the United States surprised many people because it is generally expected that Trump would not agree with the communiqué.

However, Trump once again demonstrated his fickleness. When the Air Force One stopped by to refuel at Crete in Greece, the reporters suddenly heard that Trump changed his mind. Less than three hours after the publication of the communiqué, Trump refused to sign it. On his flight to Singapore to participate in the Trump-Kim meeting, Trump tweeted after Trudeau making his statement, accusing Trudeau of being dishonest, "Based on Justin's false statements at his news conference, and the fact that Canada is charging massive Tariffs to our U.S. farmers, workers and companies, I have instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique as we look at Tariffs on automobiles flooding the U.S. Market!". He continued to criticize the unfairness of the trade allies and considers levying tariffs on imported cars, stating that the United States has "put up with Trade Abuse for many decades — and that is long enough".

After Trump suddenly announced that he would not support the communiqué, other governments had to urgently make up for the losses on the evening of June 9. They issued a statement and continued to support the communiqué. The Guardian claimed that Trump's sudden remarks would cause a "completely unexpected blow" to French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They had believed that the United States had agreed to ease the trade tensions between the United States and Europe. However, Trump not only refused to sign the communiqué but also humiliated Prime Minister Trudeau. Although the mess of the G7 summit was to be expected, the dramatic state of its splitting and the possible impact of Trump's refusal to sign the communiqué will still cause the West to worry, and this has grabbed the world's attention as well.

The real question is how will the next development be? What will happen to the concerned countries ?

Anbound's scholars believe that after the summit where the European countries, Canada, and Japan tried to salvage the situation, the six countries will give up on Trump. With the summit prepared by the six countries ended in disappointment, this would mean that the efforts of Angela Merkel, Shinzo Abe, Justin Trudeau, and others to persuade Trump to return to the multilateral system had completely failed. It is impossible for the six countries to expect the support or cooperation of the United States on issues such as the multilateral trading system, globalization, and protectionism against trade. Every country will have to accept the fact that the multilateral system of the G7 countries is already close to complete disintegration. For the aggressive trade strategy of the Trump administration, the six countries will have to establish a cooperation mechanism and model that excludes the United States. The countries that adhere to multilateral trade must find their own way out.

Although China is not part of the G7, as a country deeply involved in globalization, the breakdown of the G7 trade relationship will significantly affect China. As Anbound had previously analyzed, the major differences between the United States and Europe in trade norms and actions have brought out the compatibility of China with the West in the principles, values, and actions of the multilateral trading system, which helps China and Germany (representing Europe) and Japan to reach certain degree of "common interest" and form a "1+3" paradigm of joint efforts against the U.S. trade protectionism. Of course, based on the long-term ideological and geopolitical estrangement and the internal concerns about the rise of China, it is still very difficult for Europe and Japan to "accept" China. However, if the split of G7 remains unchanged, the wave of protectionism will still rage in the globe. The possibilities of additional cooperation between China, Germany and Japan will increase.

Final Analysis Conclusion:

The G7 multilateral cooperation mechanism is fragmenting. The West adhering to the multilateral trading system will have to find its own way out. This provides the possibility for China in the "1+3" paradigm.