An old saying by Wei Zheng (a renowned politician in Sui and Tang dynasty of China) quoted in the book "Zhenguan Politicians" written by Wu Jing (a historian in Tang dynasty), loosely translated, goes, "to govern a country, prepare for any possible contingencies" (备豫不虞,为国常道; bèi yù bù yú, wèi guó cháng dào) . This, indeed, is precisely the problem we are facing today.

During the first meeting of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission that took place recently, President Xi Jinping, who was presiding over the event, delivered an important speech. According to official reports, President Xi referred to the aforementioned saying in his speech. He also said, "In today's world of increased factors of uncertainty and instability, China's development faces both opportunities and challenges". President Xi then put out an appeal for people to "take precautions", called for "further improvement of diplomatic planning, implementation of plans for major diplomatic activities, enhanced awareness of risks and firm safeguarding of national sovereignty, security and development interests for now and the years to come". With regard to the erratic global circumstances compounded by complex and sensitive surroundings we are now faced with, President Xi's advice was that "we must always be on guard to respond to and defend ourselves against risks so that we may transform them into opportunities instead." Finally, President Xi pointed out that "the more successful we become, the more cautious and vigilant we need to be."

Currently, on one hand, protectionist and populist ideologies are sweeping across the globe in a seemingly uncontrollable tide that has brought with it a series of bewildering "incidents" caused by factors that are just as confounding. On the other hand, the forces of globalization are gaining traction once again, as evidenced by the many countries with export-driven economies that have not been able to transition smoothly and consequently strengthened their reliance on the forces of globalization. It can thus be said that we are now caught within a decisive global moment of struggle and conflict characterized by unpredictable changes that we are unlikely to prepare ourselves for; truly, there seems to be nowhere left to hide. Getting emotional about all of this won't help the situation either, for doing so will only make us passive and put us at the mercy of others' wills which could in turn lead to huge losses and even cause structural devastation. What is needed now, under these circumstances, are systematic integration and restructuring accompanied by the implementation of coordinated policies and actions in both diplomacy and publicity. Unfortunately, however, it appears that these ideas and proposals have gone over many people's heads.

The impact of the steel and aluminum sanctions imposed by the US have still been rather mild thus far, but things will become more difficult when punitive tariffs and a Section 301 investigation are initiated. Needless to say, there isn't much left to do with regard to the comprehensive sanctions imposed on the ZTE Corporation—ZTE has essentially shut down. What's more troublesome, however, is the fact that such circumstances could also befall the CRRC, the China National Nuclear Corporation, COMAC, as well as other major industrial projects included in China's 2025 Plan. These rapidly changing circumstances are not only very troubling but they will also give rise to various challenges as many people will have difficulty understanding and adapting to such capricious times.

With regard to North Korea, things are just as uncertain. For one, North Korea might start "looking West" and seek to engage in bilateral peace talks with the United States—this has the potential to create structural chaos. Many years ago, Anbound Think Tank was the sole entity to put forward a forewarning about such geopolitical developments, and as it turns out today, these predictions have come true. China has played a rather passive role in all of this, however. Take China's Special Envoy's previous visits to North Korea for example, which have never been able to secure a meeting with Kim Jong Un. On another note, in an unexpected turn of events recently, South Korea unilaterally offered North Korea its "friendship" just as China decided to back the toughest sanctions against North Korea by the UN to date. Fortunately, China's top political leaders were able to turn the situation around, at least to some extent. It is evident that these are tumultuous times during which major changes are taking place, and it is thus becoming exceedingly challenging to get a firm grasp of the situation.

Likewise, the same is true with regard to Japan. For the longest time, Sino-Japanese relations have been dubbed as "politically cold and economically hot"—politically cold as a result of the conflict over the Diaoyu Islands, but economically hot because trade and business has continued to be conducted as usual. In more recent times, however, Japanese enterprises have started to leave and shut down their businesses in China because of the latter's industrial development problems. In reality then, Sino-Japanese relations are actually both politically and economically "cold". It is no surprise then that many people are under the impression that Sino-Japanese relations can only be such: tense, on edge, and always ready for battle, what with the constant intimidation and show of power from both sides. Conversely, many people do not see that both these countries actually share a similar economic structure—they are both export-oriented economies—and accordingly, that both of them have something to benefit from globalization and are thus invested in sustaining its momentum. Indeed, this is the most significant point of common interest between China and Japan.

And then we also have India and Malaysia to consider.

In Malaysia, Najib's coalition lost the recent elections and he had to step down as the prime minister. This means that China has lost an amicable supporter of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the ASEAN region. While this change has yet to become a matter of public concern in China, the industrial sector considers this to be a major "incident" that makes the future of the BRI in the South China Sea and ASEAN region rather uncertain.

All in all, the present state of affairs can be summed up as follows: yesterday's friends will not necessarily be today's allies; likewise, policies that have been implemented might be changed at any time; what's more, yesterday's enemies could even, for whatever reason, become today's allies. The world is simply changing too rapidly for us to meaningfully plan ahead, and things are further complicated thanks to the media's and public's tendency to harp on and sensationalise past events.

Nonetheless, this is the reality of today's world.

Another recent development is Japan's dramatic turnaround with regard to its position towards China following Premier Li Keqiang's official visit to Japan. Originally, it was thought that Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations had been completely overturned as a result of China's exclusion from the TPP agreement. On the contrary, the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea now have plans to issue a joint document that will accelerate the consolidation of a tripartite free trade agreement as well as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). These developments have already led Kyodo News to publish headlines such as "China, Japan, and South Korea regain momentum for cooperation," and "China and Japan will contribute to the prosperity of the world."

Nonetheless, the fact still remains that "to govern a country, [one must] prepare for every contingency," for no retrospection, no matter how thorough or insightful, can replace the value of a predictive analysis. Similarly, no hindsight, no matter how interesting, can measure up to an analysis made beforehand, even if it is inaccurate. If China does not start making adequate preparations and coordinating its actions now, it might be up against even greater risks in the future.