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Friday, April 21, 2017
Chan Kung: The World's Structural Adjustment Is Just Beginning
ANBOUND

The world has been shifting from bipolar to unipolar, then moving towards multipolar and G2. These are not mere adjustment of words and concepts or neologism, rather, what lies behind these words are intricate re-adjustment of world power structure.

The world began as bipolar, starting from Cold War; the U.S.-Soviet Union rivalry for hegemony was used to describe the power or governance structure of the world. Each of countries had choosen a side; as for the so-called non-alignment movement (NAM) countries, other than being drawn to certain side at certain period of time, they mostly did not possess any actual function. After the end of the Cold War, these countries found no "leaders" and having difficulty in adjusting to the new environment without decision makers represented for them. The world went to the stage of unipolar and multipolar. At this time, the multipolar world refers to the rising of the European Union, Japan, and the emerging markets. They gradually try to send out stronger voices to express their multipolar existence. Of course, there is also a unipolar world in which the United States is the oldest one. Both situations exist simultaneously in this phase of development, but in the end, the power is more concentrated in the United States' unipolar world.

It is worthy to study a world view what China think of. After the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the team leading the policies in the country tended to consider the world as a multipolar one; this appeared to overestimate the European Union's influence and impacts that the future of Europe and euro would be in bullish way. This optimism about Europe have been very different from Anbound obviously as non-mainstream and not adopted. Since then, with the shocks of Euro and European debt crisis, the United States entered the Obama era, a unipolar world. The United States promoted the Arab Spring and the U.S. dollar that led the world's QE currency boom. It not only defeated Europeans' confidence in blindness, but also became the world's de facto leader. However, this kind of unipolar world should bear great responsibilities, very costly. The United States was unable to hold it for long and as a result, the time of Donald Trump's America First coming.

From the perspective of global governance structure, Trump's winning in the presidential election is not accidental. There are some very clear contexts and structural evolution trends. Afterwards, will it be the era of G2? The answer for this question is not certainly. G2 refers to the United States and China who jointly govern the world, determining some of the world's major matters, and forming a governance structure. There are objective facts and the costs of responsibility, good or bad simutaneously. Such that situation would have great impacts on the world.

First, some of big players in the old structure are not content with the situation. The United States deals with the European Union and Japan, while China has to handle Russia and other partners. Second, there are troubles within both the United States and China. This is a matter of vital interest and not easy to change a life-long anti-America attitude suddenly. The same is as in the United States. Third, the responsibility and cost are enormous. To pay for this cost, there should be internal reforms that both the United States and China have to do. For China, to establish and open a common market; while the United States is going for America First approach; it is therefore difficult for the economy to recover universally. So long as these are not resolved, otherwise, G2 would be unreal to talk. Fourth, geopolitical issues are challenging and hard to tackle with. Regardless of which kind of world governance structure, it is essential to be able to handle all kinds of geographical issues, i.e. North Korea, South China Sea, Indian Ocean, as well as the ISIS issue; this is a test for the effectiveness and the authority of the governance structure.

Therefore in future , the emergence of G2 will depend on harmony and the economic devleopment. In case that, this world governance structure would prove its historic significance. For example, the bipolar structure of the Cold War with the situation in tension, both sides merely dealt with their own affairs and no major incidents had erupted. Now today, North Korea threatens to use nuclear weapons to destroy the world. This issue is also a touchstone for whether or not G2 could be established. Something is worth to see, and be patient to wait.

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