The 30th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) began on November 10 in Belém, Brazil. With COP29 having finalized frameworks for climate finance and carbon markets, COP30’s central task is shifting from “negotiating rules” to “delivering results”. Whether countries could submit more ambitious climate action plans, honor their financial commitments, and launch a global carbon market will determine the fate of the 1.5°C temperature-control target. However, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted so far, despite some countries raising their targets and strengthening adaptation measures, remain insufficient overall.
This shows that countries worldwide are adjusting their green policies. Notably, the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement this year, raising the question of whether the NDC it submitted last year is now void. Meanwhile, the European Union, traditionally a leader in climate action, has scaled back its climate goals. On November 5, the EU reached an agreement to amend the European Climate Law, pledging to cut emissions 90% from 1990 levels by 2040. Yet due to objections from several member states during negotiations, the EU will allow countries to meet 5% of that reduction target through purchases of international carbon credits. For the 2035 NDC target, the EU has adopted a broad range of 66.25% to 72.5%.
Therefore, in the future, China and Japan may be the only major economies still consistently adhering to green policies. Rather than focusing solely on whether countries will follow through on their commitments, what truly deserves attention is the underlying logic of the global climate agenda. This, indeed, is a strategic issue. This logic forms the foundation for developing green policies and is essential for understanding climate change itself.
At present, climate change has become a reality that we can no longer avoid. According to a report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in January 2025, the global average temperature in 2024 was about 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the hottest year on record. Data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) show that from 1961 to 2024, China’s annual mean surface temperature exhibited a significant upward trend, rising by 0.31°C every decade, higher than the global average rate of warming over the same period. In addition, the China Climate Change Blue Book (2025) reports that from 1961 to 2024, the country has seen an increasing frequency of extreme heat events and episodes of intense precipitation.
Under such circumstances, current green policies around the world and those in China are formulated on the basis of addressing climate change. However, whether such policy orientations can be effectively implemented in different countries remains highly uncertain. Even if they are implemented, it is still unknown whether they will achieve the expected outcomes. On the contrary, these policies have led to significantly higher costs, fueled inflation and social discontent, as well as due to equipment that must be phased out or discarded, have in some cases resulted in even larger-scale production and resource consumption. Contrary to mainstream views, ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan argues that while China supports green policies, this does not stem from the goal of reversing global warming. Instead, it is grounded in two strategic pillars: energy conservation and emissions reduction.
Energy conservation is the core strategic pillar of green policy. In essence, it is a key pathway to overcoming resource constraints and improving the quality and efficiency of economic development. As the world’s largest energy consumer, China has long faced a dual challenge in its energy supply–demand structure: a gap in total supply and a shortfall in efficiency. Its energy consumption per unit of GDP remains relatively high, which is 1.4 times the global average and 2 to 3 times that of developed countries. Against this backdrop, the strategic value of energy-saving policies has become increasingly prominent. According to data from 2021, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by a cumulative 26.4% over the past decade, with an average annual decline of 3%. This reduction is equivalent to saving or avoiding the use of 1.4 billion tons of standard coal. Using the conversion of 3,000 kWh of electricity per ton of standard coal, this saved energy corresponds to 4.2 trillion kWh of electricity, roughly 45% of the country’s total power generation in 2023, and enough to meet the entire annual industrial and residential electricity demand of the Yangtze River Delta region.
The strategic importance of energy-saving policies is particularly evident in the industrial sector. China has a relatively high proportion of traditional energy-intensive industries, with sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals accounting for more than 60% of total industrial energy consumption. Inefficient energy use not only drives up production costs but also heightens the risks associated with resource dependence. Energy-saving upgrades promoted through green policies have already generated notable economic and strategic benefits. For instance, in the power sector, following the implementation of the retrofit policy for existing coal-fired power units, the coal consumption rate for power generation has dropped from 333 grams per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to 308 grams per kilowatt-hour in 2023. Each unit now saves more than 30,000 tons of standard coal annually, and the coal power industry as a whole reduces fuel costs by more than RMB 20 billion every year as a result.
In terms of energy security, energy conservation carries irreplaceable strategic value. China’s dependence on imported fossil fuels has remained high for many years. In 2023, crude oil import dependence still reached 72%, and natural gas exceeded 40%. Risks related to transport security and price volatility in energy imports are ever-present. By reducing energy consumption per unit of output, energy-saving policies directly slow the growth of total energy demand. Between 2012 and 2021, China’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 6.6%, while total energy consumption increased by only 2.9% per year. During this period, the energy-consumption elasticity coefficient fell from 0.8 to 0.44. This gap means that each year China reduced incremental energy consumption by roughly 200 million tons of standard coal, equivalent to a reduction of about 140 million tons of crude oil imports, or 15% of the nation’s annual import volume. As it stands, this significantly strengthens the strategic buffer capacity of energy supply.
Pollution control is the other core pillar of green policy. At its essence, it is a foundational undertaking aimed at protecting public health, maintaining social stability, and safeguarding the sustainability of development. The economic and social costs of environmental pollution have long exerted systemic pressure. Estimates show that health losses caused by air pollution in China once accounted for 0.8% of GDP, and for every 10-microgram-per-cubic-meter increase in PM2.5 concentration, urban residents’ medical expenditures rise by 3.8%. This issue is even more pronounced in densely populated regions. In 2022, air pollution caused EUR 18 billion in health-related losses in the Netherlands and led to approximately 11,000 premature deaths each year, with emissions from agriculture and industry as major contributors. Given that China’s population is 170 times larger than that of the Netherlands, the strategic urgency of pollution prevention and control is even more acute.
The strategic value of pollution control driven by green policies is reflected in both health benefits and economic returns. Between 2013 and 2023, China’s national average PM2.5 concentration fell from 79 micrograms per cubic meter to 29 micrograms, a 63% reduction, while the number of heavily polluted days in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and surrounding areas dropped by 80%. Improvements in environmental quality have translated directly into health gains. According to research by the country’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the decline in PM2.5 concentrations has reduced the annual growth rate of lung cancer incidence in key regions from 3.5% to 1.2%, decreased the growth rate of childhood asthma by 40%, and lowered national medical expenditures by more than RMB 30 billion per year. In water pollution control, by 2020, emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides had fallen by 13.8%, 15.0%, 25.5%, and 19.7% respectively, compared with 2015, surpassing the targets set in the country’s 13th Five-Year Plan. The share of surface water classified as Grade I–III rose from 66% in 2015 to 83.4% in 2020, exceeding the Five-Year Plan target by 13.4 percentage points. Meanwhile, the proportion of water bodies rated below Grade V dropped from 9.7% to 0.6%.
The strategic value of industrial pollution control also extends to enhancing industrial competitiveness. By imposing stringent pollutant emission standards, green policies compel enterprises to upgrade technologies and improve production processes, addressing pollution issues while simultaneously fostering new drivers of economic growth. In 2023, the output value of China’s energy-saving and environmental protection industry reached RMB 9.8 trillion, and it is expected to exceed RMB 15 trillion by 2030, becoming a key pillar of the national economy. In the steel industry, ultra-low-emission retrofits reduced sulfur dioxide emissions per ton of steel from 2.5 kilograms in 2015 to 0.3 kilograms in 2023, while also increasing profit per ton of steel by RMB 120. Nationwide, this generated more than RMB 80 billion in additional economic benefits for steel enterprises. The expansion of new models such as third-party pollution control and contract environmental services has created more than 2 million jobs, forming a positive cycle of “pollution reduction - efficiency gains - employment growth”.
Overall, compared with the logic of “changing global warming”, it is “energy conservation and emissions reduction” that constitutes the strategic core of ANBOUND advocacy for green policies. We believe this approach aligns with the true purpose of China’s national green policy: energy conservation helps break through resource constraints, providing room for sustained economic growth, while emissions reduction helps safeguard the “ecological security baseline”, thereby laying the foundation for stable social development. In this process, China’s adherence to green policies will serve as a lever in global geopolitical and diplomatic relations, while also forming an important foundation for advancing the country’s new energy industry, urban renewal, and, ultimately, sustainable economic development.
The formulation and implementation of China’s green policies should therefore place greater emphasis on the two strategic pillars of “energy conservation and emissions reduction”. Its policies should reflect the country’s efforts to address global climate change, advancing from theoretical frameworks, funding, and projects toward richer and more concrete practical actions. Even if this requires higher costs and greater investment, China will need to proceed with the green policies, as they constitute a core strategy for the nation’s long-term development.
Final analysis conclusion:
As of now, most countries are adjusting their green policies, and even Europe has abandoned parts of its green transition. It is projected that China and Japan may be among the few major economies that continue to adhere to green policies. However, China’s commitment to green policy is not driven by climate concerns, but by the two strategic pillars of “energy conservation” and “emissions reduction”. Even if this entails higher costs and greater investment, the policy should be implemented, as it represents a core strategy for the nation’s long-term development.
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Xia Ri is an Industry Researcher at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
