From October 20 to 23, China's Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee reviewed and adopted the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan. This plan not only represents a critical five-year period for advancing toward the 2035 goal of basically achieving socialist modernization, but also marks a decisive phase for China to overcome the "threefold pressures" of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations, as well as to break through the middle-income trap. Unlike previous planning periods, this plan faces a much more complex domestic and international environment. Global industrial chains are undergoing restructuring amid intensified technological competition; the traditional land-based fiscal model is losing steam; the demographic dividend is gradually diminishing; and a new round of technological revolution is approaching a decisive stage. Positioned at the juncture between the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the formulation of the 15th, this plenary session has set the tone for China's next stage of development.
Looking at the shift in strategic positioning from pursuing "high-quality development" to "advancing Chinese modernization comprehensively", one can see the profound evolution in China's development vision. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee identified 2020 as a historical turning point, marking the start of a new journey toward building a modern socialist country on the foundation of a moderately prosperous society. During that phase, economic work remained focused on resolving pressing issues such as poverty alleviation and pollution control, laying the groundwork for the 14th Five-Year Plan. The Fourth Plenary Session, however, redefined the overall goal from "embarking on a new journey" to "advancing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through modernization". This shift emphasizes maintaining the momentum of economic development while ensuring social stability and national security, as the country moves from addressing structural issues to confronting a more complex and fluid global environment.
At its core, this transition reflects an upgrade in national objectives, especially with respect to the 2035 long-term vision. The 19th Central Committee stressed achieving per capita GDP levels comparable to moderately developed countries while advancing industrialization and digital transformation. The 20th Central Committee, by contrast, reoriented the 2035 goals toward significant improvements in national defense strength, comprehensive national power, and international influence, while giving concrete expression to people's aspirations for a better life through "solid progress toward common prosperity". This adjustment reveals China's growing emphasis on the quality and resilience of development, alongside the safeguarding of national security, marking a more all-rounded approach to strengthening national capacity.
The logic of China's economic development has also evolved. The country's 19th Central Committee's Fifth Plenary Session focused on deepening supply-side structural reforms and expanding domestic demand, with efforts aimed at modernizing industrial and supply chains and stabilizing the agricultural base. The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, however, has shifted from structural optimization to fostering new growth drivers. It calls for accelerating high-level self-reliance and self-strengthening in science and technology and developing new-quality productive forces. Industrial development is now guided by the principles of intelligence, greenness, and integration. Furthermore, the session outlined a coordinated strategy for building China's strength in education, science and technology, and talent, signaling that economic development will no longer depend solely on traditional industrial upgrading but will increasingly be driven by innovation and the deep integration of technology and industry.
In the relationship between market and government, the Fourth Plenary Session further refined the principle of combining an effective market with a proactive government. It emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance and dismantling barriers to fair competition. Compared with the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee's focus on factor market reforms and building a high-standard market system, the new approach places greater stress on practical implementation and market optimization. By removing institutional bottlenecks and promoting the establishment of a unified national market, China aims to inject renewed vitality into economic growth.
National security has been elevated to an unprecedented level. The 19th Central Committee's strategy to coordinate development and security focused on risk prevention, public safety, and social stability. Meanwhile, the 20th Central Committee advances this agenda by calling for the modernization of the national security system and capabilities. It highlights the need for systemic upgrading to address emerging risks, with stronger bottom-line thinking and improved regulatory frameworks in areas such as food and drug safety and ideological security.
In defense and military affairs, the Fifth Plenary builds on the goal of achieving the centenary objectives of the People's Liberation Army, adding the target of advancing the modernization of national defense and the armed forces with high quality. The introduction of a new "three-step" modernization roadmap underscores a more systematic and integrated national security mechanism. This also shows that the national security strategy has evolved from the past singular goal to a more systematic and complex strategic layout.
Social well-being and the pursuit of common prosperity have also entered a new stage. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee's social policies emphasized expanding the coverage of social security systems, ensuring universal access to public services, and consolidating poverty alleviation outcomes. On the other hand, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has moved from a focus on broad inclusivity to one of precision and equity, highlighting efforts such as promoting high-quality development in real estate and advancing population quality development. This marks a transition toward fairer and more targeted resource allocation, ensuring that the needs of different social groups are addressed in a more differentiated and effective way.
The strategy for rural revitalization and regional development has likewise evolved. The Fifth Plenary Session proposed comprehensive rural revitalization and integrated urban-rural development. The Fourth Plenary Session upgrades rural revitalization to the "advancement of the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas", adding the goal of "promoting basic modern living conditions in rural areas". It also emphasized the synergistic effects of regional development strategies and strengthened marine development, utilization, and protection. This shift emphasizes the systematic nature of urban and rural development and regional development, focusing not only on integrating urban and rural development but also incorporating more functional considerations into the formulation of regional strategies.
There is also a transition in China's culture and ecological strategies. The Fifth Plenary Session emphasized the "prosperous development" of cultural construction, focusing on improving public cultural services and meeting the cultural needs of the people. In contrast, the Fourth Plenary Session proposed to "stimulate the creative vitality of the entire nation's culture", explicitly calling for enhancing the dissemination and influence of Chinese civilization and promoting the global influence of "socialist culture with Chinese characteristics". This shift reflects a profound change in China's cultural strategy, moving from merely providing cultural resources to driving innovation in culture and international cultural communication.
Regarding ecological construction, the Fifth Plenary Session proposed promoting green development, aiming for the sustained improvement of the ecological environment. The Fourth Plenary Session further advances this goal to "accelerate the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development", explicitly linking it to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, while simultaneously promoting carbon reduction, pollution control, ecological expansion, and economic growth. This shift marks China's ecological strategy evolving from localized governance toward a more systematic approach to green transformation.
Overall, the 15th Five-Year Plan period marks China's entrance to a new stage of building a modern socialist country. From the 14th Five-Year Plan to the current one, the core of these strategic shifts lies in adapting to the changes of the new era, accurately grasping the profound shifts in domestic and international circumstances, making strategic adjustments, and promoting long-term breakthroughs across various fields. These shifts not only summarize China's own development experience but also constitute responses to future challenges.
As China gradually progresses from being a major economic power to achieving comprehensive modernization, future goals are no longer solely about quantitative growth but focus on the overall improvement of quality, efficiency, innovation, and sustainability.
Final analysis conclusion:
The 15th Five-Year Plan period represents a critical turning point in China's development, signaling a shift from pursuing high-speed growth to emphasizing high-quality development. At the heart of this strategic shift is the realization of comprehensive modernization, which involves not only pursuing innovation and upgrading in economic development but also implementing profound adjustments across social, cultural, ecological, and national security domains. These five major strategic shifts respond to both the complex domestic and international environment and to the country's long-term objectives. As it stands, China will place greater emphasis on sustainable development and enhancing overall national strength, promoting coordinated development across all social dimensions, and ensuring steady progress toward higher-level modernization.
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Yang Xite is a Research Fellow at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
