Pursuing upward mobility through elite education has long been a key aspiration for middle-class families in China. However, as the wave of economic contraction continues to spread, enthusiasm for elite education among these families is rapidly diminishing.
Researchers at ANBOUND have previously conducted an in-depth analysis of the decline of the piano industry, and the result indicates the significant impact economic contraction has had on both the industry and market. One major contributing factor they identified was the selective withdrawal of middle-class families from piano education due to financial pressures.
Other than the piano, other high-end musical instruments, such as the violin, are facing similar challenges. In recent years, many middle-class families have voiced concerns about the growing burden of learning instruments like the piano and violin. The rising costs of maintenance, repairs, and tuition have become increasingly difficult to bear, forcing some families to reluctantly abandon music education mid-way. In essence, the retreat from piano and violin education reflects a broader reprioritization of household spending among the middle-class during times of economic tightening. Faced with slower growth in disposable income and growing uncertainty about the future, learning high-end instruments, once seen as a symbol of elite status, has increasingly been deemed a non-essential expense, and thus among the first to be cut.
Shifts in spending priorities are subtly reflected in the interruption of continuous consumption. Feedback from piano industry professionals reveals a significant decline in voluntary renewals by parents in recent years, with rejection rates during payment reminders reaching as high as 60% in the country. Behind this phenomenon lies a structural adjustment in middle-class families’ education budgets. In 2023, over 60% of families reduced spending on extracurricular education, with a particular focus on cutting back “long-return, low-practicality” enrichment programs. Compared with vocational training programs, such as post-production for film and television or UI design, that directly meet job market demands, investments in arts education like piano and violin lack both policy support for academic advancement and clear pathways to employment. As a result, their position in household spending priorities has continued to decline.
More importantly, amidst the impact of economic fluctuations, education in high-end musical instruments like piano has triggered a profound shift among middle-class families from "status consumption" to "survival rationality", a shift that shows the inherent fragility of the middle class's financial situation. The "piano craze" that emerged in the 1990s reflected the middle-class's desire to demonstrate their social status through artistic consumption during a period of rapid economic growth. Back then, the price of an entry-level piano of RMB 20,000, with tuition fees ranging from RMB 200 to RMB 600 per lesson, was still a manageable price. However, faced with the dual pressures of layoffs and mortgage pressure, families with monthly incomes exceeding RMB 10,000 are re-evaluating the investment and returns of education. When the high cost of piano lessons accumulated over several years fails to generate a clear return, this type of consumption, once intended as a means of prestige, loses its rationale, leading to a sharp decline in market demand for pianos and related industries. Huzhou piano industrial park's transformation into furniture panel production exemplifies the industry's reluctance to adapt to the shifting consumer dynamics of the middle class.
Similar to the decline in piano education, the myth of “Ivy League shortcuts” in Southeast Asia has also unraveled.
Not long ago, Southeast Asia was seen as a haven for middle-class families seeking to escape the intense competition of domestic education. Countries like Malaysia and Thailand were viewed as high-value transitional hubs for international education. For middle-class families eager to send their children to top Western universities but unable to bear the high costs of studying directly in Europe or North America, Southeast Asia seemed like an affordable alternative. However, in just a few short years, the landscape has undergone a dramatic shift. The dream of an educational shortcut has ultimately proven no match for the harsh realities on the ground.
Impacted by global factors such as U.S. exchange rate fluctuations, many Southeast Asian countries have experienced severe inflation, with living costs and tuition fees rising rapidly. The once-praised quality of international education has also significantly declined; loose curricula and shrinking teaching resources have become the norm. More critically, parental accompaniment policies prohibit parents from working, creating a sharp contradiction between shrinking household income and rising education expenses. Hence, Southeast Asia has lost its former allure as the paradise of the budget-conscious Chinese. As education spending shifts from being a focus in the household budget to a heavy burden that strains cash flow, middle-class families have been forced to initiate emergency budget restructuring. The reprioritization of expenses follows a harsh logic: from “investing in the future” to “surviving the present”. According to refund data from an international school in Beijing, nearly 80% of middle-class families switched to public schooling over the past year. Choosing 12 years of public education can save RMB 3 million to RMB 4 million and reduce the risk of being unable to sustain overseas studies. Behind this decision lies a fundamental shift in how educational return on investment is calculated. In the past, middle-class families believed that “elite education = upward mobility”. Now, they are waking up to a sobering reality: spending millions may not secure admission to an Ivy League school, and even if it does, there is no guarantee of employment afterward.
This has left many of these families in a dilemma. Some have chosen to return to China, only to find their children struggling to adapt to Chinese-language instruction. Others have considered relocating to Europe, only to be discouraged by the high cost of settlement and significant cultural barriers. Families who have withdrawn from Southeast Asia and returned to China are now emblematic of the decline in the middle-class elite education model. These families face not only the financial strain of depleted savings but also the challenge of reintegrating their children into China’s education system with a different pace and linguistic environment. Their previous investments in elite education have yielded little of the expected return, leaving them to confront the outcome as it stands. Meanwhile, those who choose to remain in Southeast Asia must constantly weigh their education spending against daily living costs, juggling decisions such as whether to cut back on tutoring expenses or downsize housing. This ongoing decision-making process is a continual drain on both their energy and patience.
The decline of elite education among middle-class families is not a failure of education itself, but rather the inevitable outcome of its distortion into a tool for social mobility. Economic contraction has merely accelerated this process, forcing the middle-class to confront a hard truth: engaging in an endless competition for elite educational resources with limited means is a fundamentally unequal game from the start. From an economic standpoint, this highlights the financial fragility of middle-class households. From an educational perspective, however, this decline may not be entirely tragic. It prompts families to reevaluate the true purpose of education, shifting from “paying for upward mobility” to “investing in personal growth”. Still, before that shift can fully take root, many families must endure the painful process of readjusting their spending, struggling between what to give up and what to hold on to, in search of a new equilibrium.
Final analysis conclusion:
The wave of economic contraction has dampened middle-class enthusiasm for elite education. Yet the decline of elite education is not a failure of education itself, but rather the natural consequence of its distortion into a vehicle for social mobility. On one hand, this shift reveals the financial vulnerability of middle-class families; on the other, it compels them to reexamine the true purpose of education. Before this redefinition can fully take hold, many families must endure the painful process of budgetary adjustment, struggling between what to abandon and what to preserve, in search of a new balance.
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He Yan is a researcher at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
