The immense role and influence of artificial intelligence (AI) have now been widely recognized, with some even considering it to be a “cognitive revolution”. The numerous claims and explanations, including some sensational statements, have actually made the prospects for AI's application more ambiguous, and even somewhat worrying. What kind of world should AI create? Here, we provide some points of view from ANBOUND.
ANBOUND’s opinion is clear: the large-scale application of AI has led to a modern industrial revolution driven by a “soft engine”.
In 1712, the first steam engine was introduced as a power source, serving as a novel general-purpose power technology that provided the foundation for all the changes in the modern world. Humanity thus entered the era of large-scale machine-driven industrialization, resulting in significant changes and efficiency improvements. From the steam engine to the appearance of the first modern factory system in 1779, there was a gap of 67 years. In 1999, the first graphics processing unit (GPU) was born, becoming the “steam engine” of this era, making large-scale parallel computing possible. From the GPU to the first AI that integrated all components in 2016, only 17 years had passed. This time, human life and work, as well as modern production and services, will be thoroughly transformed by AI as a “soft engine”.
It is worth noting that this drastic compression of time hides a deeper efficiency logic. The industrial revolution was constrained by the physical laws of steel and steam. The construction of factories and the laying of railroads were slow, capital-intensive, and geographically limited physical processes. However, the cognitive revolution is built on the “bit” of digital technology, and the cost of replicating and distributing AI models and software applications is virtually zero. A production process using AI technology can be scaled to a global level within minutes via cloud services; a new “cognitive production line”, i.e., a dedicated app, can reach millions of users instantly via the internet. This essential distinction based on digital media is the fundamental reason why this industrial revolution is accelerating at an astonishing pace.
In fact, general AI models provide a function similar to that of brain neurons, which can be applied to any industrial or service process, unleashing the effectiveness of what is akin to human top-level intelligence. For this reason, AI entrepreneurs are actually playing the role of the inventors and entrepreneurs who once applied steam engines to various fields. A question arises: who will become the John Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie of the AI era? They will surely become the new industry giants who reshape the global economic landscape.
Some assess that this industrial revolution actually sketches a grand blueprint, with USD 10 trillion marking the specific scale of its battleground. However, from the perspective of the modern industrial revolution, this is actually a conservative figure, because AI is already embedded in almost all production and service processes. In fact, the scale of just the American service industry market could well exceed this figure.
According to general estimates, industries in the U.S., such as law, accounting, healthcare, and consulting, make up the USD 10 trillion service economy. However, AI’s penetration in these fields is currently around USD 20 billion, with a penetration rate of less than 0.2%. This means a vast, almost untouched “new frontier” is waiting to be conquered by AI. Therefore, this enormous gap itself constitutes unparalleled business opportunities and a massive market size. The growth model of traditional services is largely linear, relying on the intellectual labor and time input of highly paid professionals. The intervention of AI will bring nonlinear growth potential to this ancient industry.
In the manufacturing sector, AI will similarly be widely applied at a surprising speed. Smart production and brainpower-driven production methods will largely replace manual labor. Robots will no longer be rigid in their actions but will possess thinking, logical, and understanding capabilities, which will allow them to perform in diverse production scenarios, saving resources and greatly improving efficiency. According to McKinsey's estimates, after full AI application in manufacturing, global savings could amount to USD 1.3 – 2.6 trillion per year. Humans need rest, but AI does not and does not require it. McKinsey predicts that by 2030, AI will contribute USD 13 trillion annually to global GDP, with manufacturing as the core contributor.
Imagine a future scenario where AI, through automation, enhancement, and the creation of new service models, makes previously expensive or inaccessible professional services more widely available. An AI legal assistant could offer contract review services to small businesses at a very low cost, while AI medical diagnostic tools could provide expert-level image analysis for remote areas. These emerging needs will collectively drive the market boundaries of AI to expand significantly.
Interestingly, AI will alter the basic structure of the capital markets, driving significant changes in the industry. Currently, there is almost no presence of traditional law or accounting firms in the S&P 500, as most of them adopt a partnership model that prevents them from going public. The underlying reason for this is the structural weakness of traditional services. While the partnership model ensures high-quality, customized services, it also limits their ability for nonlinear expansion, which means that the growth of the company is directly tied to the number of highly paid experts. AI technology addresses this weakness, as an AI system can empower thousands of lawyers simultaneously, performing work that previously required a large team of junior lawyers, thereby achieving scalable replication of knowledge services.
Clearly, this fundamental shift in business models will give rise to a new generation of AI-driven, publicly listed service giants, potentially changing the composition of the familiar S&P 500 index, heralding the arrival of a new business era.
In the era of AI's "soft engine" running at full speed, the nature of knowledge work is undergoing a transformation. In the past, we pursued a "low-leverage, high-certainty" work model, meaning we had 100% control over every step and outcome of a task. Now, we are transitioning to a new paradigm of "ultra-high leverage, uncertain outcomes". The role of work is shifting from direct executor to AI's "coach" and "corrector", achieving a leverage effect of over 1,000%. Future workers must adapt to collaborating with probabilistic and uncertain AI systems, moving from rigid execution to flexible iteration and critical thinking.
AI will no longer merely imitate data but will be able to learn optimal strategies through trial and error and feedback, thus surpassing human capabilities in specific tasks. In fact, the influence of AI extends far beyond chatbots or humanoid robots. It is profoundly changing the physical world by optimizing processes and accelerating hardware manufacturing. For instance, Nominal uses AI to accelerate hardware product production and quality assurance processes. This aligns with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's vision of the future "AI factories", where AI not only processes information but also directly participates in the creation of the physical world. In the new economic paradigm, one key indicator of productivity will be "FLOPS per knowledge worker". This measure will increase at least 10 times, and in an optimistic scenario, possibly 1,000 times. This means a huge and sustained demand for computing power, creating unprecedented opportunities for computational power suppliers and companies that equip their employees with AI.
The fact that the future industrial revolution will be driven by AI as a soft engine is without doubt. Human production and services are entering an unprecedented phase of popularization and re-education. The degree of success depends solely on the extent to which people learn.
Final analysis conclusion:
There are numerous claims and statements regarding AI's immense role and influence, including some sensational statements. In essence, it boils down to one thing: the large-scale application of AI is leading to a modern industrial revolution driven by a "soft engine".
