Daxing International Airport in the southern suburbs of Beijing is hailed as the "foremost among the New Seven Wonders of the New World". Construction of Daxing International Airport began in 2014, and it officially commenced operations on September 25, 2019. However, nearly six years later, this mega project, which cost a staggering RMB 450 billion, including over RMB 110 billion for civil aviation and RMB 300 billion for transportation and other municipal infrastructure, has not lived up to expectations in terms of actual operations. It may not have turned a profit, and it is even highly likely to be running at a significant loss. Financial reports indicate that Beijing Capital International Airport Company Limited (BCIA), the owner of Daxing International Airport, incurred losses of up to RMB 39.5 billion over the five years from 2020 to 2024.

In this regard, some have attributed this as an effect of the economic downturn and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

During one of the weekends, a researcher at ANBOUND spent over an hour traveling by subway to visit the international airport to have a better understanding of its current situation. In fact, cases like Daxing International Airport are not uncommon in China. Attributing all developments solely to the economic downturn and the pandemic risks presenting an oversimplified explanation, and it overlooks the more complex and underlying factors involved.

Construction projects like Daxing International Airport are more likely to reflect the mindset of building an advanced infrastructure ahead of its time that remains deeply embedded in the thinking of decision-makers. These projects, however, more often than not, are launched with over-optimism, without much consideration of real-world conditions, and serve more as vanity or image projects. As a result, they have triggered significant economic backlash.

According to the national plan at the time, the main goals of building the airport were to ease passenger pressure on Beijing Capital International Airport and to promote coordinated development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The concept itself was certainly appealing, though whether these goals could actually be achieved seemed to be of little concern to most people.

For the city of Beijing itself, the construction of a second airport was indeed a strategic necessity. On one hand, the city is home to over 20 million permanent residents. Drawing from international precedents, such major metropolitan areas typically require multiple airports: New York has three, Tokyo and Paris each have two, and London operates five. On the other hand, passenger demand at Beijing Capital International Airport created urgent pressure for expansion. As early as 2010, its annual passenger throughput reached 74 million, nearing the planned capacity target of 76 million by 2015. By 2018, that figure had surpassed 100 million, making it the second-busiest airport in the world.

From a regional perspective, Daxing International Airport was also envisioned as a catalyst for the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The airport was strategically located at the intersection of the three areas, 46 km from Tiananmen Square, 54 km from Beijing’s sub-center, 75 km from central Tianjin, and 55 km from the Xiong’an New Area. On a broader scale, Daxing International Airport sits at the heart of the greater Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, positioning it to serve as a regional transportation and development hub.

However, the most critical issue lies in its design capacity; specifically, whether it aligns with actual demand. A mismatch between supply and demand, whether through overestimation or underestimation, can lead to inefficiencies. In this case, the dominant pattern of building ahead of demand, often seen in China’s infrastructure-driven growth model, played a central role. Driven by over-optimism and disconnected from on-the-ground realities, Daxing International Airport has seen significantly lower passenger volumes than expected, and it has also become a stark reminder of the risks of overly ambitious planning.

At that time, the feasibility study for Beijing's new airport projected that the region's air passenger demand would reach 170 million by 2025 and 235 million by 2040. In its initial phase, Daxing International Airport was constructed with a 700,000-square-meter terminal and four runways, designed to accommodate an annual passenger throughput of 45 million. By 2025, the airport was expected to handle 72 million passengers, 2 million tons of cargo and mail, and 620,000 aircraft movements. The long-term plan includes the construction of a southern terminal and two additional runways, ultimately enabling the airport to handle over 100 million passengers annually.

This makes Daxing International Airport the largest airport project in terms of both long-term planning and initial construction scale in the history of China’s civil aviation. However, actual passenger traffic has fallen far short of these projections. Between 2020 and 2024, the airport handled a cumulative total of only 127 million passengers, averaging just 25 million annually, well below the design expectations. In fact, prior to the airport's construction, researchers at ANBOUND had already predicted that the peak of air travel demand in the Beijing region occurred around 2018–2019, and would likely decline thereafter rather than increase. This suggests that the airport’s capacity planning was more a product of anticipatory infrastructure thinking than a response to realistic, data-driven demand forecasts. It significantly overshot the likely upper limits of passenger growth for decades to come.

The substantial gap between expected and actual passenger volume has led to considerable negative consequences, resulting in a significant economic backlash and challenging the long-term sustainability of Daxing International Airport’s operations.

On one hand, Daxing International Airport was positioned as a "future airport" right from the initial stage of its construction, with a forward-looking design that has resulted in significant fixed costs due to depreciation. Its sheer scale contributes heavily to these financial pressures. The terminal building’s steel-framed roof alone covers a projected ground area of 180,000 square meters, equivalent to 25 standard football fields. Whether viewed from above or experienced up close, the airport is undeniably grand and visually impressive, reflecting China's global image and earning numerous domestic and international accolades. However, if such an expansive facility is underutilized or only marginally used, it effectively becomes a misallocation of resources. Meanwhile, the hard costs of construction and ongoing maintenance remain unavoidable.

More critically, the extensive use of advanced technologies has driven up operating costs substantially. According to incomplete statistics, the construction of Daxing International Airport set over 40 international and China’s own domestic records, secured 103 technology patents, and introduced 65 new construction methods. Thirteen key construction indicators met world-class standards, including the world’s largest base-isolated building, the world’s first airport terminal built above a high-speed railway, and the world’s largest airport steel roof structure. From equipment maintenance to energy consumption, nearly every expenditure is enormous. Despite the implementation of green technologies such as photovoltaic power generation and a coupled ground-source heat pump system, these innovations have not significantly reduced overall costs.

On the other hand, its non-aeronautical revenues have fallen far short of expectations. As of 2024, data shows that among the world’s top 20 international airports, non-aeronautical income typically accounts for 40% to 60% of total revenue. The highest is Dubai International Airport at 70%, followed by Singapore Changi at 60%. At the lower end are Atlanta and Charlotte airports, at 37% and 35%, respectively. Notably, the share of non-aeronautical income is positively correlated with the proportion of international passengers: for every 10% increase in international traffic, non-aeronautical revenue typically rises by 5 to 8 percentage points. This is particularly significant given Daxing International Airport's strategic positioning as an international aviation hub.

However, positioning is one thing, while actual operations are another. The low proportion of high-value international flights is a particularly obvious shortcoming. Currently, Daxing International Airport still has too few international flights, and the utilization rate of international departure bridges remains low. Each time an international flight departs from Daxing, the departure halls are largely empty. As of July 16, the total passenger throughput for the year reached nearly 28.5 million, a 9.26% year-on-year increase. Of this, the number of inbound and outbound passengers surpassed 3 million, accounting for less than 10% of the total. In this context, Daxing International Airport's commercial services, including retail, dining, and hospitality, are also facing a downturn, with none of the bustling crowds that one might expect.

Within the vast terminal, the sharp reduction in international passengers has dealt a blow to high-profit operations like duty-free shops and VIP lounges, with growth in these areas falling below 10%. Additionally, the number of retail stores for rent is limited, and in some of the quieter areas, there are only one or two convenience stores. Some shops have even closed or are in the process of being transferred, while others remain unrented. Aside from a few dining establishments with decent foot traffic, milk tea shops, cultural and creative stores, and convenience stores generally have low customer flow. For instance, one milk tea shop had only a few customers inside, while another had slightly more, but still far from crowded. According to reports, although the airport’s management operates some of the shops directly, it appears that business expansion has been limited, and employees seem to lack the enthusiasm to drive growth.

At the same time, the airport's advertising operations remain underdeveloped, occupying a relatively vacant position with little growth. On the ground, the vast advertising space is sparsely occupied. Apart from some directional signs, the only prominent advertisement is a large VIVO promotion. Other ads are minimal, and in fact, almost non-existent. Additionally, revenue from parking facilities is likely low. In the nearby towns of Lixian and Yufa, located 3-4 kilometers from the terminal, dozens of informal parking lots have sprung up on idle residential plots and collective land. These lots, offering convenient parking at prices less than one-fifth of the official airport rates, have become popular with travelers.

Another key aspect to look at is the infrastructure and municipal construction, including transportation. Given the emphasis on the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Daxing International Airport plan included a dedicated airport rail link and interprovincial passenger transport. However, observations on-site show that these transportation facilities are underused. This indicates that these infrastructural investments have not been effectively utilized.

When it comes to Daxing Airport Express, with a one-way fare of RMB 25 and trains operating every 10 minutes, the service shows some level of passenger flow; however, the seat occupancy rate remains disproportionately low relative to both the designed seating capacity and the scheduled frequency of trains. The airport rail link service fares even worse, with high-speed rail traffic so minimal that its presence is almost negligible. Upon closer observation, the scene at the entrance was marked by a mere handful of passersby, with even fewer passengers waiting for their trains. The waiting area, almost entirely devoid of passengers, further amplified this sense of emptiness. While slightly more passengers could be observed disembarking, the overall numbers remained insufficient to support the infrastructure's operational scale, raising serious concerns about the alignment of traffic demand with the significant costs of operation.

Daxing International Airport has also launched at least six interprovincial passenger bus routes. While the fares are relatively affordable, the actual number of passengers is quite low. According to on-site observations, despite the existence of dedicated passages and premium services, there was hardly any passenger flow throughout the day, whether traveling from these provincial routes to the airport or from the airport to various provincial bus stations, despite improvements made to interprovincial transport infrastructure. Given that local airports in cities like Tianjin and Shijiazhuang already offer adequate capacity, there is little incentive for passengers to travel further to Daxing International Airport.

Overall, the system project driven by Daxing International Airport can certainly be described as "modern" and "international". However, it follows a model of anticipatory infrastructure development, with a cyclical logic that goes like this: alleviating the pressure on Beijing Capital Airport + promoting the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region → large passenger capacity + advanced technological setup → high aviation revenue + high non-aviation revenue → overall profitability → alleviating the pressure on Beijing Capital Airport + promoting the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This cyclical logic is not unique to Daxing International Airport but exists across various sectors of China’s infrastructure development. It represents an economic growth model that is driven by infrastructure projects rather than actual demand. Even without economic downturns or the impact of the pandemic, sustaining such a model would be difficult.

It is likely that the decision-makers believe that the completion of such a large-scale, technologically advanced, and architecturally impressive airport would inevitably lead to success, driving economic growth and prosperity. After all, securing approval for a policy document is a relatively straightforward process. However, when the actual societal conditions fail to support this vision, what was once envisioned as a symbol of progress may instead become an empty shell and ultimately counterproductive. The timeline for this monumental project to realize its original potential remains unclear. It is widely accepted that any major design or construction initiative should be underpinned by a strategic vision that accounts for both immediate and long-term considerations. Yet, when such foresight becomes overly optimistic or anticipatory, it risks becoming a step backward.

Therefore, China’s future infrastructure development must, on one hand, avoid repeating such events. On the other hand, the scientific feasibility of infrastructure projects must be rigorously assessed, considering both positive and negative factors, rather than blindly pursuing projects without regard to actual conditions. More importantly, in the context of de-globalization and economic weakness, the country must truly accelerate its shift towards a consumption-oriented society. Allocating limited resources should prioritize consumption, which will, in turn, drive economic growth. In this sense, it represents a gradual and even eventual shift in the economic development model.

Final analysis conclusion:

Daxing International Airport serves as a notable example of China’s anticipatory infrastructure development, emblematic of an economic growth model that prioritizes infrastructure projects over actual demand. With passenger traffic falling significantly short of its designed capacity, the airport has faced considerable economic repercussions, including substantial depreciation and amortization costs, a marked shortfall in non-aeronautical revenues, and significant sunk costs in transportation and other municipal infrastructure. This has, in turn, triggered a negative feedback loop. To avoid similar outcomes in the future, it is essential for the Chinese authorities to shift the focus and accelerate the transition toward a consumption-oriented economy.

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Xia Ri is an Industry Researcher at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.