A large-scale attack occurred recently in Pahalgam, a region in Indian-controlled Kashmir, which is often touted as the "Little Switzerland". A group of armed militants emerged from the forest and opened fire with machine guns on tourists who were visiting the area, resulting in at least 26 deaths and many injuries. Among the dead, one was a Nepali citizen, while the rest were Indian citizens. This is the most severe attack on civilians in the Kashmir region in over 20 years.

After the shooting incident, the Indian government responded quickly. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was about to begin a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia, immediately canceled his trip and returned to India to hold an emergency cabinet meeting with senior security officials. India believes that Pakistan is absolutely linked to this attack and promptly announced a series of measures against Pakistan, including suspending the implementation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, closing border checkpoints, and expelling Pakistani personnel, among other rare actions. Additionally, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated that it had suspended the issuance of all types of visas to Pakistani citizens and advised Indian nationals against traveling to Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan argued that India, in the absence of any reliable investigations or verifiable evidence, was recklessly and irrationally attempting to link the shooting incident to Pakistan, which they deemed "highly irresponsible and legally unfounded". Pakistani government officials, agricultural experts, and farmers also claimed that India's deliberate control over shared water resources would severely impact Pakistan's food production, drinking water security, and economic stability. In response, Pakistan took countermeasures, such as closing border checkpoints, revoking certain visas issued to Indian citizens, and declaring the Indian defense attaché at the Indian High Commission in Pakistan "persona non grata". Both India and Pakistan also began regulating their airspaces, which led to increased fuel costs and longer flight routes for airlines. Some airports experienced chaos, and international flights began avoiding the airspace along the India-Pakistan border.

India and Pakistan have been experiencing frequent clashes in the region and its surrounding areas in recent days. The Indian Ministry of Defence recently issued a statement saying that the Indian armed forces have launched operations to strike infrastructure in Pakistan and the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir region. The statement noted that the targets of India's operations were locations where armed personnel had recently shot at tourists in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region, while military targets in Pakistan were not part of the strike.

Some media outlets quoted a statement from Pakistan's military spokesman Ahmad Sharif Chaudhry, claiming that India had used drones to launch attacks on multiple locations in Pakistan. The statement further claimed that several Indian drones had been shot down at different locations. However, this could be misinformation.

Other reports suggest that the attacks launched by India against Pakistan have resulted in 31 deaths and 57 injuries. It appears that Pakistan's response has been quite intense. Earlier, Pakistan's Ambassador to Russia, Mohammad Khalid Jamali, stated Pakistan will use "full spectrum of power", including conventional and nuclear forces. He also called for both India and Pakistan to quickly ease tensions. He pointed out that since both countries possess nuclear weapons, any escalation of the conflict could lead to risks that are hard to assess. Jamali also called on major powers, including China and Russia, to participate in an investigation.

The international community is closely monitoring the developments between India and Pakistan. The United Nations has called on both sides to exercise maximum restraint and to de-escalate the situation immediately, stating that the situation should be resolved through dialogue. U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated that the U.S. hopes Pakistan and India will cooperate in the fight against terrorism and also expressed hope that India's response to the shooting incident in Indian-controlled Kashmir would not lead to a broader conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump said that "if I can do anything to help, I will be there" and urged both India and Pakistan to stop their current actions immediately.

As it stands, international social media are flooded with opinions and commentaries suggesting that the India-Pakistan conflict could escalate into a more serious "hot war". The information circulating online is a mix of truth and fake news, and is often exaggerated. Some news outlets have even used "nuclear weapons" as clickbait in their headlines to deliberately heighten the sense of tension. Content creators on social media are even more sensational, using terms like "major war" or "Kashmir's nightmare", as if foreshadowing imminent chaos and fierce fighting. While some mainstream Western media outlets publicly claim they do not believe this conflict will escalate into a full-scale war, they often add a cautionary line at the end of their commentary, along the line of "any mistake or misjudgment means anything is possible", almost like a disclaimer in case the situation takes a sudden turn.

A senior researcher at ANBOUND believes that a large-scale war between India and Pakistan is highly unlikely. The current India-Pakistan conflict is primarily a form of "political maneuvering" by Indian Prime Minister Modi. Once Pakistan responds and skirmishes occur along the border, Modi has already achieved his strategic objective. His goal is to use the situation as an opportunity to once again portray himself as a strongman in India, a decisive leader, and a powerful nation that does not fear any pressure.

ANBOUND has previously pointed out that the social foundation of the "Modi Strategy" lies in Hindutva nationalism, which serves as a core tool for Modi to consolidate his power. In past India-Pakistan conflicts, he has consistently utilized his tough stance toward Pakistan and the Muslims to successfully shape the image of a decisive and strong leader, thereby fueling nationalist sentiment at home. It is worth noting that some foreign media have reported that a survivor of the recent Pahalgam shooting claimed that the attackers explicitly stated they were targeting Hindu worshippers before carrying out the assault. For Modi, this serves as the perfect justification for "political exploitation", as any move to "punish" Pakistan would further enhance his image as a political strongman.

In fact, this kind of image even affects the U.S., making it hard to ignore India's presence and influence, especially in the current context where the U.S. needs India to counterbalance China. When it comes to India-U.S. relations, Modi, while being proactive, has also been firmly upholding his own principles. He is doing what he can to leverage America's geopolitical strategy. This is essentially making the U.S. work for him, while occasionally using it to intimidate neighboring countries and perpetual "enemies". This is how the U.S.'s Indo-Pacific strategy works, and it is also how India approaches its strategy towards Pakistan.

For Modi, achieving a "visual victory" in the India-Pakistan conflict is sufficient. A large-scale or full-blown war carries too much risk and offers too little reward. Indeed, it is unnecessary for Pakistan as well, especially since Pakistan is relatively weaker. Even if it ends up being only a localized conflict, the cost would still be high, let alone a full-scale "hot war". Therefore, a large-scale war between India and Pakistan is unlikely to occur.

Final conclusion analysis:

The India-Pakistan conflict is largely driven by Modi's political strategy. When Pakistan reacts and clashes occur along the border, Modi has effectively realized his strategic objectives. Through these actions, he has reinforced his image as a decisive and resilient leader in India, one who is unyielding in the face of external pressures. This image resonates even beyond India, influencing the U.S. and reinforcing the significance of India's presence and geopolitical weight. As a result, a large-scale war between India and Pakistan remains highly unlikely.

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Zhijiang Zhao is a Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.