As things now stand, U.S. President Donald Trump may have softened his stance towards China. It has been reported that he indicated a significant reduction in tariffs, implying a potential shift in U.S. policy regarding the U.S.-China trade war. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a recent TV interview, mentioned that any softening of the approach would depend on China’s actions. Additionally, there have been reports from Singapore indicating that there have been “contacts” between the U.S. and China, with some progress, although it is still not yet time for formal negotiations. While some of this information may be true, some may not so much. Regardless of any shifts in Trump’s thinking or new developments in U.S.-China relations, it seems unlikely to change one harsh reality: the trade dispute between the two countries has evolved from a trade issue into a geopolitical “long-term struggle” within the global competition landscape. In this context, it is crucial for China to carefully reconsider its foreign strategy and diplomatic policies.
In the current environment, diplomacy is not only a means of demonstrating power but also an important platform for shaping national image and guiding cultural trends. In recent years, China’s diplomacy has played a significant role in safeguarding its interests, as well as in asserting its bottom lines. This assertiveness, in contrast to China's previous "low-key" diplomatic approach, marks a shift in the nation's international strategy, indicating its growing strength on the global stage. However, it is unlikely that China can continue to rely on such a “philosophy of struggle” indefinitely. While assertive rhetoric may provide short-term satisfaction, it can potentially escalate tensions in international relations, possibly leading to confrontation. Such an approach is unlikely to foster greater international recognition. Instead, it may provoke countermeasures that undermine China's image globally. Consequently, this strategy may hinder, rather than advance, the country's diplomatic and strategic objectives. ANBOUND suggests that China's diplomacy should adopt a more balanced approach, integrating both soft and hard power while remaining flexible and responsive to evolving global dynamics.
As early as 2008, ANBOUND conducted a comprehensive analysis of the rebalancing of China’s diplomatic approach. During the Beijing Olympics, in response to "anti-China" rhetoric and actions from Western media, including CNN, a senior researcher at ANBOUND observed that adhering to outdated strategies would only increase the risk of falling into an irreversible crisis. From a strategic perspective, China should avoid excessive concessions. Instead, it should confront unprecedented challenges by adopting a firm stance. The senior researcher further emphasized that China’s diplomacy must move beyond rigid, formulaic approaches that lack flexibility and strategic depth. International diplomatic discourse requires a professional approach. If it is too conciliatory, China will risk being disregarded. Yet, an overly confrontational approach could hinder effective communication, diminishing the country’s influence, and potentially isolating itself.
In 2010, ANBOUND introduced the strategically significant concept of the "Gentle Giant". The core idea behind this concept is that China should adopt a gentle yet resolute attitude both globally and domestically, avoiding the escalation or creation of conflicts. It is crucial for the country to cultivate an image of gentleness and create space for diplomatic mediation in international affairs. At the same time, China is a giant with immense strength, and when necessary, it should confidently demonstrate its power through a measured and gentle approach. ANBOUND further pointed out that, to illustrate the concept of China as a "Gentle Giant", "elephant would be the most fitting metaphor.
The elephant, a vegetarian giant, is known for being gentle, but if provoked, it proves to be a formidable force capable of crushing and overwhelming everything in its path. Today, when China faces the challenges of a complex external environment, the most important choice remains to adopt the "Elephant Strategy". This strategy represents a stance, a direction, and a positioning. In the past, there was an emphasis on shifting from soft power to hard power in response to changing circumstances; the current focus on transitioning from hard power to soft power also reflects a strategic adaptation. This shift aims to achieve a diplomatic rebalancing.
How then, can China rebalance its diplomacy in face of this latest U.S.-China trade war?
The key to this rebalancing is that China's diplomatic system needs to operate as a balanced framework for both communication and response. In this model, its national defense and the military would adopt a firm stance, while its diplomacy should remain flexible and adaptable. Trade policy, similarly, should find a middle ground, combining both soft and hard approaches. This balance between firmness and flexibility, a more integrated strategy, will enable China to develop a more effective system for both communication and response, maintaining open diplomatic channels. This allows the country to engage meaningfully with the international community while also enabling it to demonstrate its strength and manage necessary confrontations.
Compared to this rebalancing outcome, China's current diplomacy has not achieved balance, as it is largely oriented toward a confrontational approach, favoring hard power. This effectively means that China has proactively abandoned the forces within the Western world that are willing to engage in dialogue, choosing instead to confront the more hardline forces. Such an outcome should not be the objective or the raison d’être of a diplomatic system. Diplomacy is the domain of civil officials, not military officials. Historically, the roles of civil and military officials have been distinct. If all sides adopt the same hardline stance, when the need for communication arises, it will be difficult to find appropriate individuals to engage with, as the system’s interfaces for dialogue will have been neglected. When challenges arise, there will be no clear point of contact, and the diplomatic mission will be difficult, if not impossible, to fulfill.
In this regard, Russia serves as a useful reference example. The relationship between Russia and the West is highly strained, and the two are effectively in a state of conflict. However, even amidst this state of war, figures like the diplomat Dmitry Peskov, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and President Vladimir Putin speak with caution. This is particularly true in the case of Peskov, who consistently maintains a diplomatic tone. Lavrov is also distinctive in his approach, known for his sense of humor. He understands well that in great power politics, success requires not only strategic acumen but also a certain "sense of humor" that acts as a kind of lubricant in diplomacy. If Russia were to adopt a more hardline stance, figures like Dmitry Medvedev and others frequently resort to nuclear weapon threats. These individuals represent a separate faction within Russia. Together, the two groups, one soft and the other hard, perform a kind of diplomatic "double act", balancing each other. This approach represents a form of equilibrium diplomacy, one that is nuanced and effective in practice.
In light of the current global challenges and shifting dynamics, China’s diplomacy requires rebalancing, especially now. A unilateral approach will only force other countries to pick sides, and the outcome of such choices is already evident. Rather than following this path, it would be more beneficial for China to retain flexibility, distinguishing between internal and external matters, and reverse the current trend through diplomatic rebalancing. It is important to note that in the future world, a fundamental reality is that hard power advantages are often difficult to achieve. Even the dominant hard power position of today’s United States is increasingly uncertain. Therefore, what is truly being contested in the world today is soft power, i.e., cultural, trend-based, and persuasive advantages. This means that a country’s diplomatic system must fulfill the mission of shaping its international image: maintaining a balanced and respectful attitude, and having a firm and unwavering stance, much like an elephant, to make it impossible to be ignored by others. This can be achieved through diplomatic rebalancing, which is highly beneficial to China’s image and interests on the global stage.
Overall, China’s foreign relations are likely to become more complex in the future. Confronted with the escalating and protracted geopolitical competition, one of the most critical tasks of China’s diplomacy is to reshape the pressure environment. The diplomatic strategy should focus on securing equal development opportunities, maintaining flexibility and agility in adopting strategies, and creating room for maneuver in policy implementation. Achieving these objectives will require diplomatic rebalancing. This process is not only integral to effective communication but also crucial for positioning China in the long-term competition that will shape its future international standing.
Final analysis conclusion:
China's diplomacy needs to function as a balanced system of communication and confrontation. Under such a balanced framework, it would have an effective window through which the country can communicate with the world on the soft side, while demonstrating its strength and engaging in confrontation on the hard side. China’s image on the global stage should be that of a "Gentle Giant", and the "Elephant Strategy" in diplomacy will effectively address future challenges.
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Zhijiang Zhao is a Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
