Since Donald Trump took office, although the Russia-Ukraine conflict did not come to an immediate halt as he promised during his campaign, it has shown a series of noteworthy dynamic changes at the beginning of 2025. Considering the interactions among the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, it is apparent that the direction of the situation is increasingly being controlled by the U.S. and Russia. For Trump and his administration, the normalization of U.S.-Russia relations appears to be a priority over the peace process in Ukraine. One could even argue that ending the war in Ukraine is, to some extent, merely a secondary outcome of the broader goal to normalize U.S.-Russia relations.

It is particularly worth noting that the advancement of the "normalization" process in U.S.-Russia relations is essentially not based on the resolution of fundamental contradictions between the two sides. Rather, it is constrained by the interplay between structural confrontation and short-term interest calculations typical of great power relations. This type of relationship forms the underlying logic of the so-called "normalization" and differs fundamentally from the deeply interwoven ties between China and Russia, which are based on shared strategic needs, or the easing model of China-Vietnam relations, which stems from geo-economic complementarity. Instead, it reflects the typical characteristic of major-power rivalry: a dynamic of "competition and cooperation in parallel". This pattern of great-power relations is primarily manifested through continuous, efficient engagement and classic diplomatic communication, which aim to reduce differences and soften contradictions. Over time, this leads to a dynamic progression where mutual interests evolve "from non-existence to existence, from comprehensive confrontation to the resolution of partial disputes".

Key communication milestones between the U.S. and Russia include the first round of high-level negotiations held on February 18, 2025, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The two sides reached a four-point consensus: restoring diplomatic ties, promoting a solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, exploring geopolitical cooperation, and reinstating embassy staffing. Russia’s diplomatic approach is characterized by a "dual-track" strategy, with one team playing the "hardline" and the other the "moderate" role, an approach that remains evident in such great-power dialogues. For example, on January 19, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, publicly stated that under current conditions, the normalization of U.S.-Russia relations is "principally impossible". He blamed the lingering crises left by the Biden administration for continuing to hinder bilateral communication and predicted that full normalization could take "several decades".

However, following the first round of negotiations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a speech to the State Duma on February 19 that the normalization process of U.S.-Russia relations had begun. He noted that both sides had demonstrated a “positive and constructive” attitude during the Riyadh talks and were planning to create conditions for restoring trade, economic, and geopolitical cooperation. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko described the Riyadh negotiations as "preliminary consultations" that merely clarified each side’s bottom lines, indicating the need for further negotiations. On the U.S. side, the prevailing stance, represented by figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, highlighted the symbolic significance of the consensus with Russia but did not mention any substantive progress. This suggests that the normalization process between the U.S. and Russia has, in fact, substantively begun. It also reveals that Russia’s previous hardline, dismissive, and resistant rhetoric was largely a technical maneuver within the realm of diplomacy.

Subsequently, and up to the second round of bilateral talks, the U.S. and Russia had engaged in multiple public and private contacts. For instance, Bloomberg reported on February 26 that the two sides had initiated confidential negotiations focusing on joint extraction of Arctic natural resources such as oil and natural gas and the development of trade routes. The scope of these discussions extends well beyond the Ukraine peace issue and touches upon the broader dimensions of great-power relations.

According to sources, although the negotiations are still in their “early stages”, energy cooperation has already been designated by the U.S. as a key objective. On March 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump held a direct phone conversation, marking a certain degree of progress in bilateral communication. Reportedly, both sides expressed a mutual desire to normalize relations and engaged in in-depth discussions on economic and energy cooperation, as well as international issues.

From March 23 to 25, the U.S. engaged in talks with both Russia and Ukraine in Riyadh, focusing on the Ukraine war and related peace negotiations. On March 24, U.S. and Russian delegations discussed the details of a previously agreed “30-day infrastructure ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the possibility of a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The U.S. side expressed satisfaction with the progress made during the Riyadh talks. However, comprehensive analyses suggest that the meetings largely focused on "technical issues” and failed to bridge the core differences between Russia and Ukraine on their fundamental demands. Russian political scientist Aleksandr Dugin commented that these core issues can only be resolved through coordination at the level of the Russian and American heads of state.

On April 10, the second round of bilateral U.S.-Russia talks began at the Russian consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. According to statements from both sides, the focus of these talks was the resumption of embassy and consular operations. In other words, the discussions were limited to diplomatic affairs. U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce clearly stated: "Ukraine is not, absolutely not on the agenda… These talks are solely focused on our embassy operations, not on normalizing a bilateral relationship overall, which can only happen, as we've noted, once there is peace between Russia and Ukraine”. Crucially, this statement was made by the Rubio-led U.S. State Department, which does not necessarily represent the full stance of the Trump administration. Interestingly, on April 14, Dmitry Peskov, press secretary and close aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, remarked that Russia and the United States were at the beginning stages of normalizing and rebuilding their relationship.

Interestingly, as U.S.-Russia negotiations have deepened, Putin has gradually deployed members of his diplomatic inner circle. In April 2025, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, visited Washington, where he met with Steve Witkoff and Marco Rubio to discuss Ukraine peace talks and U.S.-Russia relations. In global diplomatic circles, it is widely believed that beyond the key players like Trump and Putin or Rubio and Lavrov, there is another crucial figure who has consistently played a behind-the-scenes role: Kirill Dmitriev, a highly loyal “man in the shadows” close to the Russian President. A Stanford University graduate, Dmitriev is married to Natalya Valeryevna Popova, a close friend of Putin’s younger daughter, Katerina. They are all part of a close-knit "family circle" at the very top of the Kremlin hierarchy.

In 2015, Dmitriev took over leadership of one of Russia’s sovereign wealth funds and has since been described as “the most powerful lobbyist in Russia”. It is reported that his ties with members of Trump’s circle were never severed, even during the height of the Ukraine war. His high-profile, public involvement now is a clear signal that U.S.-Russia relations may be entering a new phase.

Notably, judging by the course and development of U.S.-Russia relations, China does not appear to be an obstacle or even a significant consideration. It might, in fact, be a bargaining chip for Russia.

Before and after the U.S.-China tariff war, Russia made no effort to conceal its repeated statements that it was willing to shield the U.S. from China’s two most potent retaliatory trade measures: rare earth resources and Boeing aircraft. In 2025, Russia publicly declared multiple times its willingness to export rare earth materials to the United States. Russia even offered to serve as a processing hub, taking on the environmental costs of refining rare earths and then exporting the materials directly to the U.S. Clearly, in the context of China restricting rare earth exports to the U.S., this move by Russia stands out sharply. In addition, Russia has shown strong interest in purchasing Boeing aircraft. Through various channels, it has signaled a desire to unfreeze funds frozen by the West to facilitate large-scale purchases of Boeing planes, in order to meet the pressing needs of Russian aviation. It is well known that Russia’s diplomatic teams are utilizing a sophisticated “dual-track” geopolitical strategy. This approach is designed to effectively engage both China and the U.S. and allows Russia to flexibly switch personnel and rhetoric as needed. In the end, everything is at Putin’s discretion to do and say whatever is necessary, as long as it serves the purpose.

It is evident that the U.S. and Russia are actively working to redefine their bilateral relationship as major powers. However, deep-seated contradictions remain between the two countries in areas such as strategic competition, nuclear arms control, and the contest for geopolitical influence. These ongoing clashes of interest are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, suggesting that the normalization process will likely be long, complex, and prone to setbacks. Nonetheless, as a senior researcher at ANBOUND previously noted, the normalization of U.S.-Russia relations is a "positive dynamic process that stems from nothing to something, from full confrontation to the resolution of certain differences". That trend now appears to be firmly established. The redefinition and reshaping of the bilateral relationship seems increasingly to be a matter of "when", not "if," and the process is clearly accelerating.

Final analysis conclusion:

The normalization of U.S.-Russia relations is a dynamic, upward-moving process, which can be described as “from nothing to something, from full-scale confrontation to the gradual resolution of key differences”. The reshaping and redefinition of this bilateral relationship is now largely a matter of when, not if, and all signs suggest that this process is clearly accelerating.

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He Yan is a researcher at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.