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Wednesday, April 02, 2025
The New World Order Centered Around Major Powers
Kung Chan

In the post-World War II world, many alliances were formed to address wartime needs, with the most typical examples being the transatlantic partnership and the World Trade Organization (WTO), among others. However, all these alliances, due to imbalances in costs and development, are now on the brink of collapse. The evident problem here is that all nations must clearly recognize that if these multinational alliances require the United States to bear the majority of the costs and sacrifices, they are certainly unsustainable. Therefore, the collapse of global multilateral relations is expected and indeed irreversible.

How then, will international relations unfold in the future?

The so-called “international market” is crumbling. The U.S. and other major nations no longer wish to share markets with other countries. The current trade war has this backdrop. For a long time, the U.S. has been the country providing the largest market globally. Naturally, it also has reasons to initiate the trade war first to reset trade boundaries. This will trigger a chain reaction, starting with the U.S., and other countries will be forced to follow suit. As a result, the former global trade boundaries will immediately be shattered, and new trade boundaries will gradually be formed and established.

In this process, the emphasis will be on the “internal circulation”, that is, domestic demand and consumption of each country’s society. While the term “internal circulation” has become well-known in China, this will be the case for the entire world. This is because, with globalization being but a shattered dream, every country must create large domestic markets as much as possible. The prosperity of the domestic market and the effectiveness of policies will determine a country's future and development. A nation's strength is tied to its prosperity; there will not be strength without prosperity. Moreover, this is a highly competitive process in which dependency will emerge. Smaller nations will have to rely on larger ones, making the larger nations stronger and creating new spheres of influence and trade boundaries.

The future world will favor major powers while leaving smaller nations at a disadvantage. The global order will be reshaped around a few dominant nations. This shift is already underway, and the idea of returning to the past is no longer realistic. Moreover, this transformation may not be peaceful; it could spark conflicts or even wars. Whether it escalates to war may depend largely on the awareness and actions of a few key leaders, as the reality is already in motion, though many are choosing to ignore it.

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