It is undeniable that as of this year, the basic process of de-globalization has been ongoing for roughly a decade. The further divergence of the global economic development pattern is, therefore, an indisputable fact. As for the countries and regions that are likely to take the leading positions in the future global economic landscape, many different views have emerged in the commentary. Some argue that, with its young population and increasingly stronger economic power, India's position in the global economy will be further strengthened. Others point out that, with similar advantages, Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam are expected to become key players in the future global economic pattern. There are even opinions that foresee a promising future for the five Central Asian countries. In this regard, however, the Americas seem to have been somewhat overlooked.
That being said, a senior researcher at ANBOUND has long expressed the view that, in terms of the future global economic structure, the possibility of a "Century of the Americas" should not be underestimated. Latin American countries, represented by Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, as well as North American countries, including the United States and Canada, will occupy a more important position in the global economic structure, with greater influence.
In several prior analyses, ANBOUND has highlighted that the past focus on the economic aspects of globalization has been one-sided and superficial. This approach has resulted in overly long and complex global supply chains, which have proven highly vulnerable in the face of sudden events such as natural disasters and regional conflicts. Moreover, the widening global wealth gap has fueled increasing dissatisfaction within countries over this narrow form of globalization. As a result, regionalization is expected to emerge as a long-term trend, with the United States gradually redirecting its attention and resources to the geographically closer Americas.
Recently, in matters such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States has essentially adopted a unilateral approach and marginalized Europe. Conflicts between the U.S. and Europe in areas such as trade, investment, and defense spending are likely to continue intensifying for a period. Furthermore, with the rise of conservative forces in the U.S. and the deepening ideological divide between them and the European Union's establishment faction, tensions in U.S.-EU relations are continuously strengthening. Moreover, since the beginning of the century, due to its own structural bloating and complex legal regulations, the EU's economic vitality has gradually weakened, and it has fallen behind China and the U.S. in areas such as cutting-edge technological research and development. The intensification of U.S.-EU contradictions and the EU's decreasing economic vitality may undermine the importance of the EU as the primary destination for U.S. capital's long-term overseas investment.
For the entire Americas, the U.S.'s primary task is to effectively manage and integrate the entire continent both ideologically and economically. In North America, the economic strength of the U.S. and Canada is undeniable. While Canada has developed clear opposition with the U.S. on specific issues such as trade disputes, the ideological divide between the two countries is minimal. Economically, Canada remains highly dependent on the U.S., and its eventual full integration into the U.S.'s regional strategic framework is merely a matter of time. Therefore, the U.S.'s most important task is the integration of the entire Latin American region.
In terms of economic development and strategic integration, the Latin American region holds significant importance for the U.S.
The Latin American region is rich in mineral resources, holding at least 65% of the world's lithium reserves (concentrated in Chile, Argentina, and Brazil); 49% of the silver reserves (mainly in Peru, Chile, Bolivia, and Mexico); 44% of the copper reserves (primarily in Chile and Peru, with Mexico following); 33% of the tin reserves (found in Peru, Brazil, and Bolivia); 26% of the bauxite reserves (concentrated in Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela, and Jamaica); 23% of the nickel reserves (mainly in Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic); and 22% of the iron reserves (concentrated in Brazil, Venezuela, and Mexico).
In addition, the Latin American region is also rich in oil and gas resources. Effectively managing and developing these resources is of great strategic importance to the U.S., as it plays a crucial role in ensuring resource independence and reducing reliance on China.
Furthermore, the Latin American region is itself a massive consumer market. With a population of approximately 665 million, it accounts for 8.3% of the global population. The population is notably concentrated in a few leading countries, with Brazil and Mexico ranking as the seventh and tenth most populous nations in the world. Additionally, the region has a relatively young demographic structure. Data shows that in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, and Chile, around 24% of the population is under 15 years old, while 65% is between the ages of 15 and 65, indicating a youthful population. The gender ratio in the region is also relatively balanced. In recent years, Latin America's economic growth has been characterized by fluctuations, with consumption potential being relatively promising. Brazil and Mexico are seen as markets with the greatest growth potential. All of these factors provide the U.S. with relatively ideal returns on potential capital investments in the region.
It is also important to note that, although some countries in the Latin American region face internal political instability and other issues, the overall situation in the region remains relatively favorable on a global scale. Unlike certain Southeast Asian nations, Latin America does not suffer from severe internal military fragmentation or warlordism. The activities of criminal groups in the region, while a concern, do not possess the same level of destructive power as the Islamist extremist forces in Central Asia and the Middle East. The internal issues in Latin American countries are primarily due to inadequate governance capacity, and these challenges are far more remediable compared to those faced by some of the major countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
In terms of the U.S.' integration of the Latin American region, the major regional powers remain the primary targets. This means that the success or failure of future U.S. integration efforts largely depends on the attitudes of Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. As for Mexico, although there are confrontational feelings and positions toward the U.S. on issues like tariffs, there is no serious ideological opposition. Furthermore, Mexico's heavy economic dependence on the U.S. makes it highly likely that Mexico will be successfully integrated into the U.S.'s regional strategic plans. Mexico's own economic strength and growth prospects are also highly regarded by global capital.
As for Argentina, President Javier Milei's radical reforms have already yielded significant results. His series of reforms in the monetary and financial sectors have effectively deepened Argentina's integration into the United States' regional strategy.
Regarding Brazil, the country is currently governed by left-wing forces, and this creates an ideological distance from the U.S. Economically, Brazil faces structural issues such as low investment efficiency and heavy reliance on final consumption and primary product exports. However, Brazil's overall economic performance remains relatively stable, and its inflation rate is not as alarming as Argentina's. It is also important to note that in the last election, the left-wing forces did not have an overwhelming advantage; right-wing forces still maintain significant influence at both the local and central levels. This suggests that Brazil's economic reforms could still move toward an American-style neoliberal model, potentially integrating into the U.S.'s regional strategy in the future.
As for other countries, due to their relatively limited population and economic scale, their ability to resist U.S. influence is weaker, making the possibility of full integration into U.S. strategy quite high. In the case of Cuba, the country has long been affected by isolation and sanctions, with ongoing internal economic and social struggles. Additionally, its aging population is the highest in Latin America, and the country's social vitality is likely to continue to decline, making it difficult to effectively obstruct the U.S.'s future strategy for the Americas. For Venezuela, although Nicolás Maduro's rule remains relatively stable for now, due to its limited overall scale and national strength, it lacks the capacity to significantly hinder the U.S.'s integration and control over the entire Latin American region.
Due to the various challenges that still exist in Latin American countries, the U.S.'s efforts to integrate the region face numerous challenges. The U.S. is the dominant power in the Americas, and its development needs were historically met through global markets. In the future, these needs may primarily be met by emerging countries on the American continent. Clearly, in order to achieve this, countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil must possess large, young populations, thriving manufacturing sectors, and stable social environments. Only then will these Latin American countries be able to effectively absorb and meet the development and investment requirements of U.S. capital, providing sustained growth and driving social and economic prosperity. Achieving these requirements will face a series of uncertainties, but it is not impossible. Once U.S. capital, technology, human resources, and ideas truly reshape the entire Latin American region—especially the key countries, the economic power and social development levels of these nations can experience significant leaps. Their international status and influence could also be greatly enhanced, thus creating a prosperous "Century of the Americas". A Latin American region like this would not only become an important base for the U.S. in the era of regionalization but also a key support point for strengthening U.S. global influence when the trend of globalization resurges.
Final analysis conclusion:
Since the launch of the Trump 2.0 era, actions such as demanding Canada join the U.S. and Denmark in ceding Greenland, and forcing Panama to quit the Belt and Road Initiative, have all indicated that the U.S. will gradually shift its focus and investments toward the entire American continent. Fully integrating the Americas, including Latin America, will become a key component of the U.S.'s future global strategy. While this strategic plan will face numerous challenges, it is not without possibility. If successful, both the U.S. and the major countries in the Americas will be able to further enhance their global standing, creating a "Century of the Americas". Throughout this process, China's existing interests in Latin America may face continuous and significant disruptions.
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Zhou Chao is a Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
