All those who support Ukraine are deeply concerned about the current military situation on the frontlines. It is as if one is looking up at a sky thick with dark clouds, hoping for a rainbow to appear.
The problem is quite obvious.
The Ukrainian military finds itself in a predicament, with Russian forces pressing forward with large-scale offensives while Ukrainian troops are forced into defensive and retreating. In particular, the situation on the battlefield in Kursk is increasingly dire. Although Ukraine has managed to retain a presence there, the conditions are grim. Ukrainian soldiers have described the situation as cold, muddy, and despairing.
The Russian military increasingly relies on light infantry assaults, as their heavy armored units have been nearly depleted after nearly three years of combat. Now, the heavy armored forces are mainly used for transport, and large-scale armored charges have become rare. However, the question arises: why can Russian and North Korean forces still successfully rely on light infantry charges, often with significant results? The answer lies in their ability to assemble undetected by Ukrainian forces. Both Russian and North Korean troops can regroup at their assembly points, resupply, and then launch attacks at their own pace.
This outlook is troubling for Ukraine, as it seems they have become stuck in a defensive, mechanical routine, unable to launch offensive operations. If they were able to identify the enemy's assembly points and launch preemptive strikes, it would likely be a powerful tactic to counter the light infantry assaults.
As I have analyzed before, the Ukrainian military is better suited for offensive operations rather than static defense. This is because the Ukrainian forces are outnumbered by the Russian military, and only by launching unexpected attacks can they offset this numerical disadvantage. Once the Ukrainian army adopts a defensive posture, the military situation will immediately favor the Russian forces. The current situation directly reflects this analysis, as the Ukrainian military's offensive in Kursk was met by a successful Russian regrouping, followed by a counterattack. With this shift from offense to defense, the Ukrainian army's position has reversed, and they now find themselves in a difficult predicament.
The greatest challenge for the Ukrainian military now is to deliver a strong blow to the Russian and North Korean forces' assembly points before they can form a significant offensive force. This must be done by using long-range weapons to disrupt their ability to launch attacks. To achieve this, intelligence and reconnaissance efforts must be strengthened to identify the assembly points of the Russian and North Korean troops. Given the scale of the offensive, these assembly points are unlikely to be too far from the area of operation, making them detectable.
The current passive position of the Ukrainian military may indicate that Western intelligence cooperation is quite limited. Additionally, the scope of the Ukrainian military's own reconnaissance efforts may be insufficient, which has prevented them from effectively detecting the assembly points of Russian and North Korean troops in advance. Moving forward, Ukraine’s defense strategy must address this issue; otherwise, it will be difficult for the Ukrainian military to achieve victory in defense, and they will continue to retreat under the disadvantage of inferior numbers.
Furthermore, Ukraine's ability to integrate Western military resources is a significant concern. Since 2024, Ukraine has received a substantial amount of Western military equipment, including F-16 fighter jets, air defense missiles, and large quantities of ammunition. However, despite these arrivals, there has been no noticeable improvement in the Ukrainian military's performance. This stands in stark contrast to the optimistic statements made by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he sought these supplies. At the time, he expressed clear optimism about the impact these assets would have, yet after receiving them, the battlefield situation has not improved and, in many areas, has even worsened. This raises doubts that Ukraine’s elite personnel may have already been depleted, preventing the effective integration and utilization of these advanced military assets, which is a major issue.
Ukraine has effectively lost its most valuable wartime asset, i.e., its elite personnel. This signifies a very pessimistic outlook. No amount of money or military assets can help them achieve victory, as they have lost the ability to effectively integrate and utilize these resources.
