In recent years, the Chinese authorities have been looking into the issue of health consumption in public health and livelihoods. The introduction and implementation of a series of policies, such as the Healthy China 2030 (HC 2030), have become powerful tools for promoting nationwide health. Such policies focus on the future development goals for the country's health industry, with particular attention to the market size and positioning of the "big health" industry.
The "big health" industry is an extension of the health concept. It covers a wide range of human activities related to food, clothing, housing, transportation, aging, illness, and death. It spans the entire lifecycle, from disease prevention and diagnosis to treatment, care, and health management. According to the HC 2030, it is expected that by the year 2030, the market size of China's "big health" industry will reach RMB 16 trillion where the sector has seen rapid growth since 2018. According to data from Intelligent Research Group, in 2023, the market size of China's big health industry grew to RMB 77.127 trillion; among which the health and elderly care sector accounted for RMB 31.357 trillion, making up more than 40% of the total. This indicates that with the increasing aging population, elderly care in China has become an important component of the big health industry. Furthermore, based on the forecasts of HC 2030 and the current estimates of the industry's scale, it is expected that in the next 6 to 7 years, the market size of China's big health industry will double.
The rapid increase in market size is primarily due to the booming demand from current societal factors. A report from the World Bank highlights that chronic diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases, have become China's top health threats, with the proportion of deaths from these diseases exceeding 80%, and the share of the national disease burden reaching 68.6%. Chronic diseases have now replaced infectious diseases as the primary health concern of the Chinese population. According to relevant data, the prevalence rate of chronic diseases among China's total population is 169.8 per 1,000, while among the elderly population is 540.3 per 1,000, which is 3.2 times the national average.
As the elderly care sector expands, the related service industry plays an increasingly important role. Based on daily observations by researchers at ANBOUND, there are several areas within the Chinese elderly care service industry that may hold potential for further development.:
1. Specialized Medical Food: Dr. Wei Junmin, a chief physician at Beijing Hospital, noted that based on a nationwide survey, over 40% of individuals aged 60 and above face nutritional risks or malnutrition. In hospitals, more than half of elderly inpatients are at nutritional risk, and about 30% are malnourished. With substantial market potential, specialized medical food is expected to experience rapid growth. According to a report on market trends of medical food for 2023-2024 by iiMedia Research, the global market for specialized medical food grew from RMB 58.3 billion in 2014 to RMB 89.64 billion in 2022, and it is projected to exceed RMB 100 billion by 2027, reaching RMB 111.06 billion. The market size of China's specialized medical food industry grew from RMB 2.59 billion in 2016 to RMB 11.93 billion in 2022. iiMedia analysts believe that only 1.6% of malnourished patients in China consume specialized medical food, which is significantly lower than the 65% rate in the U.S. With factors such as population aging, increasing downstream demand, and the development of hospital nutrition departments, the specialized medical food sector is expected to see further growth due to its crucial role in clinical nutritional support.
2. Elderly care travels: In the criteria set by the China Silver Industry Association (CSIA), travel-based elderly care is defined as a lifestyle where elderly individuals travel and reside in towns outside their usual place of residence for more than 15 days, during which they enjoy various age-friendly services and continue their elderly care. According to a June 2023 report by the China Tourism Academy, it is estimated that by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), the number of younger, healthier elderly individuals who travel frequently and have higher tourism consumption will exceed 100 million. Tourism revenue from elderly people in China is expected to reach RMB 1.14 trillion.
The report indicates that the supply and demand in the elderly tourism industry in China are currently mismatched. It mentions that in 2019, the total expenditure of elderly tourists aged 65 and above in the country was RMB 319.78 billion, accounting for 5.6% of the total domestic tourism revenue of RMB 5.73 trillion. However, from the perspective of consumption structure, there is still significant potential for growth in the elderly tourism industry. Elderly tourists aged 65 and above in urban areas spent an average of RMB 1,209.20 per trip, which is only 74.3% of the average spending of RMB 1,626.50 of urban tourists. Meanwhile, elderly tourists in rural areas spent only RMB 847.50 per trip. The relatively low spending in elderly tourism can be attributed to the fact that the current tourism industry still primarily targets the middle-aged and young populations, with few products that cater to the needs of the elderly. There is insufficient integration of elderly tourism with industries in elements like culture, sports, and healthcare services. The silver communities often feel that the available travel products are not suitable for them, and the products they need are unavailable. However, behind this vast market is a pension service sector that is still in need of further development.
3. Rehabilitation Assistive Devices: According to data released by the World Health Organization, more than one billion people worldwide require some form of rehabilitation assistive devices, with the majority of these individuals being elderly or disabled. In China, the number of people in need of rehabilitation medical services has already exceeded 100 million. As the aging population issue intensifies and the likelihood of elderly people suffering from various health conditions gradually increases, this number is expected to continue rising. Data from Zhiyanzhan Industry Research Institute reveals that in 2019, the sales revenue from rehabilitation assistive device rental services in the Chinese market was RMB 20 million, and it is predicted that by 2030, this figure will rise to RMB 1.432 billion.
As the aging population continues to increase in China, the imbalance between supply and demand in the rehabilitation assistive devices market is becoming particularly pronounced. According to relevant data, the proportion of people who have access to assistive device services has not yet surpassed 10% of the total population's demand. One reason for this is that China's elderly care industry started relatively late, and the types of rehabilitation devices are still rather limited. Compared to developed countries, the supply of high-quality rehabilitation assistive devices is clearly lagging behind. Among these factors, the insufficient variety of products is undoubtedly a key factor contributing to the scarcity of high-quality supply resources. Additionally, the technology of China's rehabilitation assistive products is generally low, and product quality varies significantly. In the current market environment, the production of low-cost products far exceeds demand, while the demand for high-quality products remains unmet and is mainly reliant on imports. Part of the reason for this is China's previous neglect of this industry, as well as a severe lack of investment in research and development. Additionally, the production model is relatively outdated. The government has also begun to pay attention to this issue. In 2024, China's State Council issued a policy document on promoting a "silver economy to improve the well-being of the elderly." It called for the improvement of the rehabilitation assistive devices industry, upgrading functional compensation devices such as hearing aids, orthotics, canes, and prosthetics, and enhancing life care products such as smart wheelchairs, transfer machines, and rehabilitation nursing beds.
Crucially, in areas such as specialized medical foods, elderly care tourism, and rehabilitation assistive devices in China, the supporting policies and industrial infrastructure are underdeveloped. As elderly care services increasingly become a vital component of the health and silver sector, these industries present significant opportunities for further development and investment.
Final analysis conclusion:
As the aging population in China continues to grow, health-oriented elderly care has become a prevailing trend within the broader health industry. Within this context, the importance of elderly care services is becoming increasingly prominent. However, China remains significantly behind in several sectors, including specialized medical foods, elderly care tourism, and rehabilitation assistive devices. These industries present considerable potential for further development.
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Qian Xiaozhi is a Research Fellow at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
