In mid-August 2023, a convoy of 23 engineers from a Chinese company was attacked at the Gwadar Port in Pakistan's Balochistan, the center of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project that involves a USD 62 billion Chinese investment. Although there were no casualties among the Chinese personnel, the attack drew strong condemnation from the Chinese embassy in Pakistan. China has demanded that the Islamabad government conduct a thorough investigation into the incident, punish those responsible, and urged Pakistan to take effective measures to ensure that similar incidents do not occur again. In late August of this year, separatist militants attacked police stations, railways, and highways in Balochistan, resulting in at least 23 deaths. Following military strikes by security forces, over 60 people have died in this round of conflict.

Despite multiple terrorist attacks from last year to the present, China’s cooperation with Pakistan has not slowed down. Recently, Pakistan's Express Tribune reported that the country expects to reach several cooperation agreements with China during the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit of heads of government. Currently, China and Pakistan have completed 38 projects in the first phase of the CPEC, with a total investment of USD 25.2 billion, and an additional 26 projects are under negotiation for inclusion in the second phase of the project. From October 14 to 16, Chinese Premier Li Qiang is scheduled to attend the SCO summit in Pakistan.

It is reported that the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs has prepared a list of approximately 41 potential deliverables, among which around 17 can be finalized pending China's approval. This includes an upgraded cooperation plan for the CPEC, financing wrap-up for power projects like the Kohala Hydropower Project, revisions to agreements on avoiding double taxation and preventing tax evasion, and establishing a "sister port" relationship between Karachi Port and Shanghai Port. Additionally, Pakistan is looking forward to signing a currency swap agreement with China.

In response to China's security concerns, the Pakistani government has expressed its commitment to combating relevant terrorist forces. Recently, the Pakistani government approved an additional allocation of PKR 45 billion to the military to enhance the protection of Chinese operations in Pakistan and improve border security management capabilities. Regarding China's suggestion to introduce mobile security devices and armored vehicle projects in the second phase of CPEC to further strengthen the safety of Chinese citizens in Pakistan, the Pakistani side has also stated that it will actively engage and implement these proposals.

However, at around 11 pm on October 6, a convoy of the Port Qasim Electric Power Company, a Chinese-funded enterprise, was attacked near Karachi's Jinnah International Airport. The attack resulted in the deaths of 2 Chinese nationals, 1 injury among the Chinese personnel, and multiple casualties among Pakistani individuals. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed responsibility for this incident. This latest terrorist attack is not an isolated event or merely a last gasp of terrorist organizations before government crackdowns begin. A crucial point to recognize is that terrorist forces in Pakistan have long posed a persistent threat to Chinese interests in the country.

First, the terrorist situation in Pakistan is continuing to worsen. According to the latest security report from the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), there were a total of 328 terrorist attacks nationwide in the third quarter of this year, resulting in 722 deaths, including civilians, security personnel, and criminals, with an additional 615 people injured. Although the number of terrorist attacks decreased by 7% in September compared to August, and the death toll dropped significantly by 56%, the total number of deaths in the first three quarters of this year has already surpassed the total for all of 2023. The death toll has risen to 1,534 in the first three quarters, compared to 1,523 for all of 2023. Nearly 97% of these deaths occurred in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, marking the highest proportion in a decade. Despite security forces continuing counter-terrorism operations, with daily action counts even exceeding a hundred, the security situation in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa remains dire, where a significant portion of China's interests in Pakistan are concentrated.

Second, the terrorist forces in Pakistan are becoming increasingly challenging to deal with. Notably, the operational scope of terrorist organizations is expanding. The last terrorist attack near Jinnah International Airport occurred over a decade ago, and the security situation became relatively stable in recent years. The recent attack happening near a relatively secure international airport indicates that terrorist forces in Pakistan have become pervasive, thereby putting Chinese personnel, institutions, and projects in a precarious position.

Furthermore, the targeting of terrorist forces has become much more focused. Since last year, major terrorist organizations in Balochistan, such as the BLA, have essentially considered China as their primary target. These terrorist organizations often adopt a spot-specific approach towards Chinese personnel. Such attacks typically occur along routes that Chinese personnel must take or frequently travel, meaning that even if Pakistani military and police conduct preemptive sweeps to eliminate suspicious targets and risks, or if Chinese personnel adjust their travel routes regularly, these measures may still fall short. Even arrangements for "decoy convoys" to scout out and eliminate threats along commonly used routes are unlikely to effectively counter determined and pervasive terrorists.

Furthermore, the existing security measures have become somewhat ineffective. It is understood that the convoy transporting employees to the power plant followed all "standard operating procedures", using armored vehicles and deploying a considerable number of police and military personnel for protection. Despite these comprehensive security measures, the lives of Chinese employees remained unprotected in the face of the powerful explosion.

Third, the issue of terrorism in Pakistan may become increasingly deep-rooted. First, the ongoing chaos in Pakistan's internal political situation is deepening, with sharp divisions between different political factions. According to a report from the Dawn newspaper on October 6, supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan attempted to occupy the streets during protests, leading to the capital Islamabad being locked down on October 5, with a large number of security forces deployed and mobile internet services cut off. The Interior Minister later informed local media that over 550 people had been arrested within two days. Related media reported that the security situation in the capital remains deteriorating. In recent years, Pakistan has also faced significant economic difficulties, and the intertwining of economic hardship and internal political strife is likely to continue draining the government's focus and weakening its capacity. The counter-terrorism efforts, which require substantial resources, may bear the brunt.

As a crucial part of Chinese investments in Pakistan, the Gwadar Port project has faced a persistent challenge of insufficient incoming vessels since its inception, resulting in a limited positive impact on the local economy. Local factions regard its revenue-sharing model as "spoils”, and this is harmful to the local economy. The increasing anti-China sentiment of the BLA is, to a considerable extent, fueled by this situation. Economic factors, coupled with local religious issues and other intersecting elements, are likely to make the anti-China stance of local forces in Balochistan even more entrenched.

Fourth, external factors may continue to strengthen the operational capabilities of terrorist organizations in Pakistan. Due to relatively close exchanges with China, Pakistan has consistently faced vigilance and targeting from Indian and Western forces, leaving room for the use of terrorist organizations to constrain the Pakistani authorities. Previously, it has been reported that Indian military personnel were involved in training the BLA. While this information still requires further verification, the trend of collaboration among Pakistani terrorist organizations is steadily increasing. Data indicates that the number of armed groups allied with the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has risen to 60, and many terrorists from Central Asian countries and Afghanistan are choosing to move south and join the terrorist organizations within Pakistan. As a result, the capabilities of these groups may further strengthen in the future.

Final analysis conclusion:

ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan pointed out that it is unlikely for Pakistan to completely eliminate the threat posed by the BLA. Such a threat is currently escalating, making the situation more severe in the future. Therefore, as a key node in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Pakistan's geopolitical significance and investment levels should be reconsidered, unless the threat of terrorist activities in Balochistan can be effectively reduced. However, this possibility is slim, as Pakistan has not been able to achieve this after decades, making it unlikely that it will be able to do so in the future. Chan suggests that China could use terrorist attacks and the resulting casualties as leverage to adjust its future investment levels and project timelines in Pakistan. Chinese authorities will need to strengthen security cooperation and intelligence efforts, so as to ensure effective implementation. This is essential for the security of significant infrastructure projects. Otherwise, such attacks will continue to occur, and even if these projects are completed, they may not serve their intended purpose.