In today's world, markets are constrained by space, and the size and strength of a country's spatial control determine its global advantage. Thus, various factors of global competition are fully focused on and restructured around spatial issues. If globalization were only an industrial matter, it would be unrelated to historical development. However, if globalization is viewed as a characteristic of an era defined by openness and integration, it must be considered from a historical perspective, where similar trends have appeared multiple times before, such as the global situation before World War II. From this perspective, the world is transitioning from globalization to de-globalization, with spatial fragmentation becoming a new trend. In this context, cultural influence and soft power may have become outdated; what truly plays a crucial role is spatial dominance within territories, which is fundamental to survival and development, determining future allies or adversaries and, consequently, everything that lies ahead.

When Donald Trump was elected President of the United States in 2016, the world and the prospects for multilateralism were already in a precarious state. Yet, there were still very few people, whether in academia or business, who had a deep understanding of this situation. The discussions at that time mostly centered on common trade disputes. In these various trade disputes, the solutions discussed were often based on the U.S.-Japan trade disputes of the previous century and their eventual resolutions. The focus was primarily on import and export costs, exchange rates, and the impact on net exports, with little serious investigation into the underlying driving factors and the potentially alarming changes.

At the end of 2018, Dr. Cheng Li, then Director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, expressed in a media interview that the diplomacy between the heads of state of China and the U.S. was very important. He was optimistic about ending the trade war between the two countries, believing that negotiations could address issues such as China's trade deficit and trade imbalances with the U.S. An important scholar from Tsinghua University, Professor David D. Li, who is the director of the Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE) at Tsinghua University, attributed the trade disputes between China and the U.S. mainly to the rise of China's economy, particularly its technological advancements. In a 2018 speech at the National Academy of Development and Strategy (NADS) at Renmin University, he pointed out that China's technological progress has been significant, with even the U.S. automotive industry now using robots produced in China. He believed that the trade conflict between the U.S. and China essentially boils down to competition between American and Chinese economies regarding who is better positioned to sustain development and maintain high levels of innovation.

The U.S.-China trade dispute began in late 2017 and gradually peaked in 2018, which erupted when the U.S. government suddenly announced tariffs on Chinese imports of steel and aluminum products. ANBOUND's founder Kung Chan conducted a more in-depth study, proposing from a structuralist analysis perspective, following the "market-space-region-global" logical framework, that the increasingly intense "wars of the market" in the global market are not coincidental. The emerging issues of international trade and geopolitical conflicts are fundamentally driven by "spatial fragmentation". He believes that spatial fragmentation will lead to the prevalence of de-globalization, disrupting the basic patterns of globalization. Therefore, "spatial fragmentation" will become the most significant trend in the future world and a crucial theoretical tool for studying, understanding, and interpreting global developments.

As a prominent Chinese think tank scholar, Chan's ideas on "space" actually began to take shape as early as 2006 when he primarily used the concept of broad spatial dimensions to study urban spatial strategies. In his analysis of U.S.-China trade relations, particularly the U.S.-China trade spat, he focused on trends in global large market spaces. He viewed the global large market as a form of space, which was undergoing subtle yet profound changes that could be disruptive. During the process of globalization, the market space that was originally becoming more integrated may now fragment into regional, relatively independent market spaces. This transition is unlikely to be peaceful and will likely be accompanied by intense trade disputes and conflicts. The occurrence of the U.S.-China trade war is essentially a response to spatial fragmentation. Therefore, Chan warned at that time that the trend of spatial fragmentation around the global large market indicated an imminent and complete market space conflict, with potentially disruptive consequences.

Chan pointed out at the time that the U.S.-China trade war is far more complex than simply being a reflection of the U.S. President's personal desire to champion "America First". This dynamic will persist beyond President Trump's tenure and has been evident even before his administration. Historical patterns of trade friction, economic sanctions, anti-free trade measures, and the use of various legal tools are all connected to past trends in globalization, the rising tide of global conservatism, and previous episodes of overproduction. Such developments were inevitable and have indeed emerged.

From the concept of space to "spatial fragmentation" and then to "new spatial theory", Chan's theoretical framework has significant implications across various fields. His analyses, particularly in geopolitics, are noted for their depth and breadth, surpassing those of renowned Russian geopolitical scholar Aleksandr Dugin. In 2021, Chan published a geopolitical article on the theory of spatial fragmentation, highlighting the emergence of new regional sovereign entities in global geopolitics. While their influence is primarily regional, these entities are increasingly capable of replacing superpowers in leading regional conflicts. He argues that the current conflict patterns in the world have shifted, with a displacement of discourse power. Future conflicts will predominantly revolve around regional dominance, with countries like Turkey, India, Israel, and Russia expanding in a nearly uncontrollable manner, leading to intense clashes over regional hegemony. Examples include the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions between Israel and Iran, and Brazil's influence in South America. This represents and evidences the global trend of spatial fragmentation, which is essentially an objective reality.

This new spatial theory reveals a strikingly different view of the world. Chan has long pointed out that the expression of global space is a continuous process with cyclical characteristics, meaning that global space undergoes cycles of expansion and contraction. While globalization is generally viewed as a process of integration, within this trend of integration, there are not only instances of fragmentation, but from a longer-term perspective, the fragmentation of global space has been a persistent reality. It can even be said that integration was merely an incidental and exceptional order in the post-World War II period, whereas the fragmentation of global space is the true dominant trend.

Over the long term, the fragmentation of global space has been a persistent trend. The world has witnessed eras of great empires, such as those of ancient Rome, Persia, and later, the British Empire, which was the largest "empire on which the sun never sets" in human history. These empires once held a vast, integrated space spanning across Eurasia. After the end of the imperial era, global space immediately began to exhibit fragmentation, with large spaces breaking into smaller ones. Existing alliances and institutional relationships have grown increasingly unstable, reflecting a key global trend. Additionally, there is the development of social systems formed by knowledge, industry, capital, and technology, all are virtual spaces that have also become more refined, increasingly independent, and have exhibited conflicts and competition. Today, the impact of social media on traditional social life and personal privacy, the effect of the internet society on political stability in various countries, and the threat of e-commerce to traditional industries and businesses in different nations have all clearly demonstrated a trend toward fragmentation.

In Kung Chan's spatial understanding, space is a multi-faceted concept that includes various domains such as markets, economy, culture, religion, politics, national defense, and law. From the physical world to the virtual realm, the overall space is composed of the overlap and integration of these different domains. He argues that, in the future, unless there is some form of spatial order alliance or integration among these different domains, the intense process of global "spatial fragmentation" will continue unabated. Otherwise, not much of options are left for humanity: either Jean Monnet's vision of achieving various "communities" comes to fruition, or spatial conflicts and competition will persist and intensify, continuing to represent and reflect the ongoing fragmentation of space.

In reality, Chan's concept of spatial fragmentation and his new spatial theory have already been, or are in the process of being, thoroughly validated. Today's globalization continues to move in a fragmented direction and may gradually be replaced by regionalization. The Russia-Ukraine war on the European continent has disrupted the smooth operation of global energy relations, and regionalist initiatives such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are beginning to replace multilateral trade mechanisms like the WTO. Chan foresaw that the extensive fragmentation of space might even render conventional military deployments meaningless. Most regions around the world are now in a state of mutual interdependence, balancing and leveraging each other. In this context, the meaning of the term "enemy" has changed greatly from the past; likewise, the term "friend" has lost its previous significance. For instance, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, no country or organization is willing to deploy troops to aid Ukraine counter Russia's aggression. Thus, the era of sacrificing everything for friends may be over. Instead of relying on other countries to deploy forces to maintain friendships, it might be more effective to focus on developing and strengthening self-sufficient national defense forces to maintain regional control and influence.

Many are concerned about what the future world will look like in the face of spatial fragmentation. Chan believes this is a complex question that is not easily answered. In this, he cites American geographer William Bunge's famous saying, "our planet is big enough for peace but too small for war". This thought-provoking statement highlights a persistent concern about the relative smallness of the Earth's space. Today's world sees rapid capital flows and increasing competition for resources within an ever-shrinking space. The growing conflict between establishment governments and populist politics around the globe reflects how the space between social systems is much more constrained than people might think. The fragmentation of space and the heightened tension in spatial relationships suggest that conflict and competition will likely dominate the future. To prevent worsening conflicts and competition, which could threaten world peace and achieve a new balance, regional cooperation organizations might be the only solution for creating new spaces. However, in a dynamic world, conflict is constant, and balance is fleeting.

Final analysis conclusion:

Spatial fragmentation is a significant marker of the shift from globalization to de-globalization, indicating that international market spaces are moving from integration to regionalization and independence. Kung Chan's forward-looking insights reveal the profound impact this trend has on the global political and economic landscape. With the rise of regional powers and the increasing independence of virtual spaces, global fragmentation is reshaping international relations and geopolitical dynamics. This trend not only undermines the effectiveness of traditional military deployments and multilateral trade mechanisms but also drives nations to seek new models of self-sufficiency and regional cooperation.